Each week, Props.com highlights the handful of schools that oddsmakers believe have the best College Football Playoff odds — with the Orange and Cotton bowls hosting the semifinals on Dec. 31. While each contender’s ranking in the Associated Press Top 25 poll garners mention here, this exercise is all about chronicling where these teams currently stand in the betting market.
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 12 noon ET on Oct. 27.
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 7-0
Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -1200/No +750
Georgia picked the perfect week to go on a bye, given how No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 3 Oklahoma, and No. 4 Alabama all struggled to dominate inferior opponents last Saturday (Navy, Kansas, and Tennessee, respectively).
As such, UGA remains the nation’s clear-cut best team. The Bulldogs are laying two touchdowns-plus against rival Florida this week, and they’ll be even bigger favorites against their final four regular-season foes (Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern, and Georgia Tech).
Barring a stunning slip-up, Georgia is going to cruise to the SEC East title and a berth in the SEC championship game. A win there would give the Bulldogs the No. 1 College Football Playoff seed. And they’d still almost certainly make the tournament with a loss (especially if it’s against Alabama).
By the way, you know what else went unchallenged last week? The Dawgs’ vise-like grip on two major defensive categories: They still rank first nationally in total defense (allowing 208.4 yards per game) and scoring defense (6.57 points per game).
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 7-1
Ranking: 3rd (last week: 4th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -180/No +155
Alabama has the second-best odds of any playoff contender, but there are no delusions when assessing the program’s narrow window of making the four-team field. Simply put, the Crimson Tide must beat LSU, New Mexico State, Arkansas, and No. 18 Auburn in November, then take down No. 1 Georgia in the SEC title game (Dec. 4).
Anything short of this, and Alabama — as a two-loss club — would be relegated to one of the non-playoff major bowls.
This might seem unfair to Crimson Tide supporters, considering Nick Saban’s squad has subjectively played the nation’s toughest schedule and ranks second in the nation in total offense (averaging 45.9 points per game). But such is Alabama’s fate, and it’s all because of that loss at Texas A&M earlier this month.
For those who believe the Crimson Tide could survive a close SEC title game loss to Georgia and still make the Final Four, consider this fact: In the history of the College Football Playoff (2014-present), a two-loss team has never gotten an invite.
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 8-0
Ranking: 4th (last week: 3rd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -170/No +150
Quarterback Caleb Williams’ late-arriving campaign for the Heisman Trophy took a substantial hit last week, a consequence of Oklahoma failing to score in the first half versus lowly Kansas. (OU eventually won, 35-23.)
But the Sooners’ playoff train continues to gather steam, despite the team’s anxiety-filled struggles against middling competition.
Not to sound like a broken record, but there’s a solid explanation as to why oddsmakers have OU favored to make the playoff: An undefeated champion from a Power 5 conference has never been denied a spot in the four-team event. And you can be sure the Sooners won’t be the first to be left out — if they run the table.
So forget about style points. If Oklahoma knocks off No. 16 Baylor (road), No. 22 Iowa State (home), and No. 15 Oklahoma State, then wins the Big 12 championship on Dec. 4, the Sooners will be playing in either the Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 6-1
Ranking: 5th (last week: 5th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -155/No +135
What makes one-loss Ohio State a favorite to make the playoffs over three undefeated top 10 teams (No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 6 Michigan, and No. 8 Michigan State)? The speculative answer has three parts … and one down-the-story tease:
1. Ohio State has won its last four games by an average margin of 58-11. (Unlike with unbeaten Oklahoma, style points matter for the Buckeyes right now!)
2. Speaking of style, Ohio State now leads the nation in total offense (559.7 yards per game) and scoring offense (49.3 points per game). Those kinds of explosive numbers mean something to CFP committee members.
3. No. 20 Penn State (Saturday), previously ranked Purdue (Nov. 13), and No. 8 Michigan State (Nov. 20) all travel to Columbus in the coming weeks. The last time the Buckeyes lost a Big Ten home game? Against Michigan State in 2015.
And now for the final reason why the Buckeyes are favored on the College Football Playoff oddsboard …
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record: 7-0
Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +135/No -155
Each member of the CFP committee likely recalls Ohio State’s 42-0 rout of Cincinnati in 2019 — a blowout so decisive and thorough that few spectators would have complained if game officials had instituted a running clock in the second half.
Should a demolition from two years ago matter to a committee tasked with studying only 2021 games? In a perfect world, no. But we’re talking about human beings (not computers) making crucial decisions about the four-team field. And those human beings will always ponder the time-tested hypothetical of, “How would Team A fare against Team B on a neutral field?”
Few would argue that, in this case, a one-loss Team A (Ohio State) would be a huge favorite over an undefeated Team B (Cincinnati) at a neutral venue.
Bottom line: After barely getting past Navy last week, the Bearcats must hammer their remaining opponents and hope Ohio State loses one more time. That’s the only way to eliminate hypotheticals (as well as the Buckyeyes’ 2019 rout of Cincinnati) from the minds of 2021 CFP committee members.
