NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These NRFI bets are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bets and the rationale.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Friday, July 18
Our analysts break down the best NRFI bets and YRFI picks for today’s slate.
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs
These two AL rivals kick off the second half of the season at Progressive Field, a venue where NRFI bets are 26-17 this season. There are two talented hurlers on the mound in JP Sears and Slade Cecconi, who both wrapped up the first half of the campaign in impressive form.
Sears put together a 2-1 record, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across the 21.2 innings covering his last four starts. The one road turn during that span was particularly noteworthy, as he blanked the Yankees in the Bronx for 5.2 innings.
Sears has been absolutely dominant to open games this season, posting an 0.95 ERA, .154 BAA and 18:5 K:BB over 19 first frames. He’s also facing a Guardians squad that sports a 25.2% strikeout rate, .225 average, .275 wOBA and -8.3 wRAA against lefties at home since June 1.
Then, following a May 31 start against the Angels where he allowed five earned runs over 4.1 innings, Cecconi has pitched to a 2.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 0.9 HR/9 across the 39.2 innings he logged in his subsequent seven trips to the mound. The right-hander closed out the first half with back-to-back quality starts, and he’s also been very good in the first inning with a 1.80 ERA, .216 BAA and 12:4 K:BB in 10 opening frames.
Cecconi has limited current A’s hitters to a collective .219 average and .483 OPS in 34 career plate appearances, and the Athletics have a 25.8% strikeout rate and .217 average against righties on the road in the last month. What’s more, NRFI bets are a stellar 30-17 in their road games, furthering the case for a scoreless first.
Where to play: Athletics at Guardians Under 0.5 Runs
New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves 1st Inning Under 0.5 runs
The Braves get reacquainted with old friend Max Fried in this intriguing interleague series opener Friday, a game that will mark the left-hander’s return to Truist Park. Fried was dealing with a blister in his finger that caused an early exit from his last pre-All-Star-break start against the Cubs, but he’s expected to be on the hill against his old squad.
Fried boasts an 11-3 record, 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP for the season, and seven of his 11 wins have come on the road. Fried has also held opponents to a .178 average and .551 OPS in the first inning, a sample where he holds a 2.25 ERA. The Braves have also been mostly harmless against left-handed pitching at home over the last month-plus of play, posting a 27.5% strikeout rate, .227 average, .281 wOBA and -6.7 wRAA in that split since June 1.
Fried will be opposed by former rotation mate Spencer Strider, who’s unsightly 3-7 record isn’t necessarily indicative of how he’s performed. The one-time 20-game winner has allowed well under a hit per inning (48 in 61.2 frames) and has a 10.8 K/9 overall. He has endured some first-inning trouble, but it’s been in no small part due to an unlucky .387 BABIP against him in that frame.
Strider also wrapped up the first half in impressive form, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts prior to the All-Star break and posting an 11.6 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 in that 42.2-inning sample.
Where to play: Yankees at Braves Under 0.5 Runs
Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies 1st Inning Over 0.5 runs
Any time Coors Field is on the docket, a YRFI bet is under consideration. When you also have two shaky starting pitchers and the combined record for YRFI bets in the home/road splits for the two teams is 55-39, the case is exponentially stronger.
The visiting Twins will trout out Chris Paddack, who has a 2-4 record, 5.50 ERA and 1.7 HR/9 across 52.1 road innings. The right-hander has also surrendered a collective .286 average and .703 OPS to current Rockies hitters in 29 career encounters, and he’s pitched to a 5.21 ERA, .289 BAA and .768 OPS over 19 first innings.
The beleaguered Kyle Freeland gets the call for the Rockies and comes in with an 0-4 record, 6.69 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 37.2 home innings. The southpaw did start to get into somewhat of a rhythm down the stretch of the first half, but he still has an ugly first-inning body of work that includes an 8.47 ERA, .368 BAA, 1.039 OPS and 48 total bases allowed in 17 frames.
Finally, it’s also worth noting two of the hitters Freeland would be slated to face in the first inning, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, are a combined 3-for-4 with a double (Correa), homer (Buxton) and three combined RBI against him in their careers, while the likely No. 2 hitter, Ryan Jeffers, has a massive .433 OBP in 90 plate appearances against lefties.
Where to play: Twins at Rockies Over 0.5 Runs
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
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How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.
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