NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, even though it’s not exclusive to Wild Card teams or the weekend. I guess that’s why we are supposed to call it Super Wild Card Weekend now. Either way, while you are taking a break from refreshing Twitter for Lamar Jackson updates, go ahead and check out my five NFL Wild Card Weekend picks and props for the games on Saturday and Sunday. Or should I say, check out my SUPER picks and SUPER props for the weekend? Yep, that’s better.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks: Saturday
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (4:30 pm ET)
Does this have to be the first pick of the article? My OCD says we should keep it in chronological order, so that’s what we’ll do.
The reason I don’t want this to be first is I have such a bland, vanilla, chalky recommendation for this game. Yes, I’m going with the 49ers -9. I think my two-year-old niece is betting her Cocomelon toys on the 49ers spread too.
You don’t need me to tell you to bet on San Francisco, but how could you take the other side here? The 49ers are on a roll and at home while playing a team that flailed down the stretch while relying on a Green Bay collapse to barely sneak into the playoffs.
I’m not going to overthink it. Caesars Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 9 points whereas the other books have the spread at 9.5 or 10. I’m heading over there to make this pick.
The Pick: 49ers -9 | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:15 pm ET)
The Chargers should win this game. Should. I’m taking them against the spread (-2.5) in my NFL parlay for the week, but I’m not sure that’s the optimal bet for this game. For me, betting on the Chargers is like ordering a latte at Dunkin’ Donuts. The coffee at Dunkin’ is good, but the lattes and other drinks are unpredictable. Your order should be tasty in theory: they have all the ingredients and a solid foundation with quality coffee. Yet a simple iced vanilla latte at Dunkin’ is a true gamble. It’s either nirvana or so terrible that you can’t believe you spent money on it. That’s the Chargers.
So what’s the best bet for this game? I’m tailing my guy Josh Shepardson, who made the case for Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards in his Jaguars vs. Chargers Player Props article. Ekeler has beaten this line in 12-of-17 games this season. So what’s the catch? WR Mike Williams is out for the Chargers, which could enhance Ekeler’s target share. That’s not the catch. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season. That’s not it either. I guess it’s full steam ahead with this prop!
Go grab this one at Caesars Sportsbook, where it’s still 36.5 receiving yards compared to 38.5 at FanDuel and 37.5 at DraftKings.
The Pick: Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards | -115 Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks: Sunday
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
There are several different ways to slice this game. I tried looking at a player performance double: Josh Allen over 250 passing yards and the Bills to win. While that’s viable, I’m not in love with the -110 odds at FanDuel. I shopped around and still couldn’t find a prop on the number of total ‘Penguin’ Waddle dances on the broadcast.
The Waddle has to be the best celebration going right now
pic.twitter.com/WQ8KQGwLaF— Bet The Pigskin (@betthepigskin) September 12, 2022
Instead, I found a better solution: Stefon Diggs to have the most receiving yards in this game (+155 at FanDuel)
Diggs has an over/under of 79.5 receiving yards. Tyreek Hill is next at 61.5, then Gabe Davis (48.5), and Jaylen Waddle (47.5). The fact that QB Skylar Thompson is starting limits the upside of Hill and Waddle. Thompson has been the primary QB in three games this season. Hill’s highest yardage output was 55 yards while Waddle’s was 52.
Meanwhile, Diggs’ floor for receiving yards is around 60 yards, which could cash this prop if the rationale in the previous paragraph holds. Diggs also has a legitimate chance of getting to 100-120+ yards while the upside for Hill and Waddle is capped.
The Pick: Most Receiving Yards of Game: Stefon Diggs | +155 at FanDuel
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Don’t think of this as investing in the Giants’ passing game. Instead, this is a short sell of the Vikings’ pass defense. Okay, now that you are in the correct mindset, let me reveal the top pick from this game:
- Richie James Jr. over 47.5 receiving yards
The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards this season. Even worse, they let Daniel Jones throw for 334 yards while completing 30-of-42 attempts in Week 16. This rematch could follow a similar script, and New York would be wise to attack Minnesota’s defensive ineptitude.
Who was the Giants leading receiver that day? It was none other than Richie James Jr, who posted eight catches for 90 yards against Minnesota. The 27-year-old also led New York in targets, receptions, and receiving yards with a cool 7-76-1 line against the Colts in Week 17.
Let’s cash in on this angle by taking James over 47.5 receiving yards on Sunday. The best shop to grab this one is BetMGM, which is hanging 47.5 yards compared to 49.5 and even 50.5 at other books.
The Pick: Richie James Jr. over 47.5 receiving yards | -120 at BetMGM
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
I opened this article by picking the 49ers and saying I’m not overthinking it. Well, I could be overthinking this Ravens-Bengals pick entirely, but here’s my impression:
I believe the Bengals win but Baltimore keeps it relatively close. Instead of taking the Ravens spread, I’m going to walk on the wild side with a bet on the winning margin.
- So here’s the bet on FanDuel: Bengals winning margin 1-13 points. By doing this, the odds jump to +135.
This is something I occasionally like to do when I’m leaning towards an underdog, but I don’t like their chances at an outright victory. Don’t get crazy with this betting strategy, but there are times when it seems appropriate, and a divisional contest in the Wild Card round seems like the time to bust it out.
You can look at the wager like this: I’m getting the Ravens +13.5 with the caveat that they cannot win the game.
The Pick: Bengals winning margin 1-13 points | +135 at FanDuel Sportsbook