The 2021-22 NBA season tips off tonight, and with it so does a new regular feature at Props.com. Each week, we’ll pluck our five favorite player and/or team props from the NBA’s busy Wednesday and Friday night cards, and do what we do best: Provide you in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Occasionally, if we have a strong opinion on a particular prop, we may even share it — so long as you promise not to hold us to it (after all, we aren’t touts).
For a sneak preview of this new segment, here are five props from the NBA’s star-studded opening-night doubleheader, which begins with the Brooklyn Nets at the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Golden State Warriors at Staples Center.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Oct. 19.
Milwaukee Bucks Alternate Spread vs Brooklyn Nets
The Prop: Bucks to win by 10-13 points (vs. Brooklyn)
The Odds: +750
— More than 60 percent of Milwaukee’s regular-season wins last season (28 of 46) were by double digits. Meanwhile, 45.8 percent of Brooklyn’s losses (11 of 24) were double-digit routs.
— Including the postseason, the Bucks went 6-4 against Brooklyn in 2020-21, but only one victory fell in the 10-13 points range (a 107-96 win in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals). Only one other victory (104-89 in Game 6) was by double digits. In fact, in the 10 meetings, the Nets finished plus-13 in scoring differential despite losing six of the 10 battles.
— Citing the Giannis Antetokounmpo era (2013-present), the Bucks have a 3-5 record in season openers. During that stretch, Milwaukee didn’t post a single victory in the 10-13 point range.
Brooklyn Nets PG James Harden
The Prop: Over/Under 8.5 assists (at Milwaukee)
The Odds: Yes -220/No +175
— In his first season with the Nets (2020-21), Harden collected nine or more assists 29 times in 42 regular-season games. For good measure, he landed right on eight assists six times.
— Cool factoid: Harden has notched double-digit assists in each of his last four season debuts with the Rockets and Nets. During this dime-friendly stretch, Harden averaged 13 assists in the opener.
— In last year’s injury-plagued playoffs, Harden averaged 9.6 assists in eight complete games. And in his four matchups against the Bucks (regular season/playoffs), he averaged nine assists.
L.A. Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
The Prop: Lakers -1.5 in the 1st quarter
The Odds: Warriors -125/Lakers +105
— In last year’s three regular-season meetings, the Lakers outscored Golden State in the first quarter by margins of 34-22 (home), 41-21 (home), and 29-26 (road). Over the past two seasons, in fact, Los Angeles is 5-0-1 against the Warriors in the first period, with those four of those first-quarter “wins” being by 8 points or more.
— During the regular season last year, the Lakers averaged 27.4 points per game in the first quarter, but one full point less (26.4) at home. Golden State put up 28.6 ppg overall in the initial 12 minutes (27.9 ppg on the road).
Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry
The Prop: Over/Under 5.5 three-pointers (at L.A. Lakers)
The Odds: Over -125/Under +100
— Dating back to the 2012-13 campaign, Curry has led the NBA in made three-pointers six times. However, looking specifically at October games over the past five seasons — a total of 26 contests —Curry shot just 30.3 from downtown (125-for-412). In the process, he went Over 5.5 three-pointers just nine times in 26 games
— In last year’s season opener — a 26-point road loss to the Nets on Dec. 22, 2020 — Curry buried only two of 10 three-point attempts.
— Last season, the Lakers ranked third and fourth overall in the NBA in three-pointers allowed (11.4 per game) and opponents’ three-point efficiency (35.2 percent), respectively.
— In his last seven matchups against the Lakers, Curry knocked down only 16 of 62 three-pointers for an underwhelming rate of 25.8 percent. Not once in those seven outings did Curry tally more than four made three-pointers.
L.A. Lakers PG Russell Westbrook
The Prop: Over/Under 19.5 points (vs. Golden State)
Current Odds: Over -105/Under -125
— During the 2020-21 regular season, his lone campaign with the Washington Wizards, Westbrook scored at least 20 points in 39 of 64 games (nearly 61%).
— Westbrook, an L.A. native who was traded to the Lakers during the summer, has averaged 28.7 points in his last seven games at Staples Center, covering stints with the Thunder, Rockets, and Wizards. Only once did he finish with fewer than 20. Of course, he didn’t have to share the ball with LeBron James or Anthony Davis in those seven contests, as he will tonight.
— Westbrook is averaging 24.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 11.5 assists in his last four season openers while shooting a sizzling 48.6 percent from the field.
