The quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson. The running backs: Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and Christian McCaffery. The wide receivers: Tyreke Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, and Adam Thielen.
Nope, that’s not a list of names at the top of the Pro Bowl’s early-voting leaderboard. It’s a list of names you won’t see among the Week 6 NFL prop bets, as all those studs are dealing with injuries that have them listed as questionable (or worse) this week. (That noise you just heard was bottles rattling around as fantasy football players across the land raid their liquor cabinets.)
Because of those marquee injuries, the Week 6 edition of First and 10 includes three team-related NFL prop bets plus our first defensive prop offering. Hey, it was either that or include “Seahawks coach Pete Carroll Over/Under 3.5 heart attacks when he sees Geno Smith drop back to pass.” Don’t think we weren’t tempted!
Odds updated as of Noon ET on Oct. 15.
Aaron Jones Over/Under 14.5 rushing attempts (at Chicago)
The odds: Over +105 / Under -140 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: In Week 1, the Packers’ primary running back was handed the ball just five times—but mostly because his team was trailing the Saints something like 67-0 before the first TV timeout. Since then, here are Jones’ rushing attempt numbers: 17, 19, 15, 14. Perhaps not-so-coincidentally, here’s Green Bay’s record in those four games: 4-0.
The case for the Under: Jones has averaged just 10.6 rushing attempts in seven career games against Chicago. Over that stretch, he’s landed right on 13 carries three times. The number of times he’s gotten past 14 carries? Once. In Week 11 at home last year, Jones had 17 totes for 90 yards.
Prop Lean: BetPrep sharp Brad Feinberg takes a stance on this prop in the Givin’ Props podcast.
Justin Fields Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (vs. Green Bay)
The odds: Over -145 / Under +105 (at BetMGM and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Only five teams (Cowboys, Saints, Bills, Buccaneers, Texans) have picked off more passes to this point than Green Bay’s five. Those five have come in the last four games, against Jarred Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Burrow (twice).
The case for the Under: Yes, Fields has thrown an interception in each of his two home games. And yes, that stat probably belongs in the previous paragraph. However, while Bears coach Matt Nagy will never be confused with Vince Lombardi—or, hell, even Jerry Glanville—he’s at least smart enough to know letting his rookie air it out is a recipe for disaster. That’s why Fields has only thrown 13, 20, 17, and 20 passes in his first four starts. Translation: The training wheels ain’t coming off this week against a divisional rival.
Chiefs-Washington Over/Under 57.5 total points (at Washington)
The odds: Over +125 / Under -150 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: This number is 3 points higher than the game’s actual total (54.5), hence the plus-money on the Over. And it’s enticing plus-money when considering: The Chiefs have given up 29 points or more every week; Washington has given up 29 points or more each of the last four weeks; Chiefs games have gone over 57.5 points every week but one (30-24 loss to the Chargers being the exception); and Washington games have gone over 57.5 points in four of the last five (33-22 loss to the Saints being the exception).
The case for the Under: Uh, um … we’ve got nothing. Not even the weather (a bit breezy is all). So let’s just continue to make a case for the Over: As noted in this week’s NFL Point Spread Report, K.C. and Washington are both 4-1 to the Over. And the two defenses that enter this week ranked 31st and 32nd in the league in points allowed? You know the answer.
Justin Herbert longest completion Over/Under 38.5 yards (at Baltimore)
The odds: Over -120 / Under -110 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Chargers’ signal-caller is enjoying a spectacular sophomore season, so much so that he’s on the shortlist of MVP contenders. He’s also proving to be one of the best deep-ball passers in the league, as evidenced by the fact he’s had long completions of 42, 43, and 72 yards in three of the last four games (and in the other one, his long was 34).
The case for the Under: The Ravens’ pass defense has been dreck this season. (See: Wentz, Carson, who passed for 402 yards Monday night with completions of 76, 42 and 31 yards.) So you have to believe coach John Harbaugh will play a loose zone and force Herbert to throw underneath … right? I mean, sometimes it really is better to die by a thousand cuts.
Austin Ekeler Over/Under 57.5 rushing yards (at Baltimore)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Let’s say I’m accurately reading Harbaugh’s mind (which would be something, considering I struggle to read my own). Wouldn’t it then stand to reason that dropping your linebackers into coverage to slow down Herbert would open some nice holes for the Chargers’ do-everything RB … who has accumulated 183 rushing yards the last two weeks?
The case for the Under: Ekeler got it rolling on the ground against the Raiders and Browns the past two Sundays. But prior to that, he tallied 57, 54, and 55 rushing yards (two of those games were on the road). What’s more, in his last six road games dating to Week 4 of last season, Ekeler has averaged just 41 rushing yards, with a high of 60.
Prop Lean: Kyle Garlett tackles Ekeler’s yardage prop in the Best Running Back Props article for Week 6.
Robert Woods Over/Under 61.5 receiving yards (at N.Y. Giants)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, PointsBet USA, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Giants’ secondary ranks in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed (270.2 per game), and their opponents’ QB rating of 108.5 is the sixth-worst in the league. Now here comes Matthew Stafford, who last week only connected with Woods 12 times for a mere 150 yards.
The case for the Under: In four games prior to last week’s eruption in Seattle, Woods was only averaging 43 receiving yards per outing. During that span, he topped 61 yards just once (64 at the Colts). More importantly, this should be a cakewalk game for the Rams against a banged-up Giants team that isn’t very good when healthy. Can’t see L.A. coach Sean McVey putting his QB and skilled players at risk by calling a bunch of unnecessary pass plays after halftime.
Prop Lean: Griffin Carroll has an entire article dedicated to breaking down Robert Wood’s receiving prop. View it here.
Derek Carr Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (at Denver)
The odds: Over -140 / Under +105 (at DraftKings, PointsBet USA, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Prior to last week’s lackluster 20-9 home loss to the Bears, when he failed to complete a pass in the end zone, the Raiders QB tallied the following passing TD numbers in his previous five games dating to the 2020 finale at Denver: 2, 2, 2, 2, 2. Can’t get more consistent than that.
The case for the Under: Tough enough to play at Mile High against a stout Denver defense that’s surrendered just five passing TDs all season (including just one in two home games). Now add the distraction of answering endless questions about your former coach’s email history. Also, before his two-TD performance in Week 17 last season, Carr had thrown for more than one touchdown just once in his previous eight games against the Broncos.
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 27 total points (at New England)
The odds: Over -110 / Under -110 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Not sure what’s been more impressive to this point: the Cowboys’ explosive offense or the fact that the NFL’s version of Beavis & Butt-Head (McCarthy & Jerruh) hasn’t done something to screw it up. Dallas has put up 44, 36, and 41 points the last three weeks, and is averaging 34 points per game, second only to Buffalo (34.4).
The case for the Under: Those last three games? All at home. Those three opponents? Eagles, Panthers, Giants. Those opponents’ head coaches? None are named Bill Belichick. Despite being 2-3, The Hoodie has his defense balling, as the Patriots have yielded just 18.4 points per game (fifth in the league) and surrendered more than 22 points just once (28 vs. the Saints in Week 3).
T.J. Watt Over/Under 2.5 solo tackles (vs. Seattle)
The odds: Over +125 / Under -165 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Steelers’ All-Pro linebacker had three solo tackles against the Bills in Week 1. And three against the Raiders in Week 2. And three against the Packers in Week 3. And — you guessed it — three against the Broncos in Week 4. Now Watt gets to set his sights on Geno Smith!
The case for the Under: Don’t think we mentioned this, but … Geno Smith is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks! Seriously, if Carroll doesn’t at least double-team Watt all night Sunday, he’s gonna wake up Monday to a gross-negligence lawsuit from Smith’s attorney.
Buffalo Bills -7.5 at Tennessee Titans
The odds: Bills -7.5 (+135) / Titans +7.5 (-165) (at BetMGM)
The case for covering the alternate spread: Gotta feeling we’re going to be asking this a lot the rest of the season: How stunning does Buffalo’s season-opening 23-16 home loss to the Steelers look in retrospect? Since then, the Bills have won their last four games 35-0, 43-21, 40-0 and 38-20. Considering this is the NFL, those victory margins are the equivalent of Alabama vs. The Citadel.
The case for not covering the alternate spread: Other than last week at the Chiefs (who very well could be no better than average this season), Buffalo pretty much has faced The Citadel: Miami, Washington, and Houston are a combined 4-11. Since getting blindsided 38-13 by the Cardinals at home in the opener, Tennessee has won three of four. Sure, the one loss was to the Jets, but it was on the road, in overtime, and the Titans were down their top two wide receivers.
Results For Week 5 NFL Prop Bets:
— Kyle Pitts Over/Under 60.5 receiving yards (OVER – 119 yards)
— Joe Burrow Over/Under 36.5 pass attempts (OVER – 38 pass attempts)
— Antonio Brown Over/Under 4.5 receptions (OVER – 7 receptions)
— New Orleans Saints Over/Under 22.5 total points (OVER – 33 points)
— Jalen Hurts Over/Under 44.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 30 yards)
— Derrick Henry Over/Under 114.5 rushing yards (OVER – 130 yards)
— Justin Fields Over/Under 213 passing yards (UNDER – 111 yards)
— Austin Ekeler Over/Under 97.5 rushing/receiving yards (OVER – 119 yards)
— Odell Beckham Over/Under 56.5 receiving yards (UNDER – 20 yards)
— Josh Allen Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (UNDER – 0 INTs)
