NFL Week 6 Odds: Public Money On Bills For Monday Night Football

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: It’s all Buffalo at Caesars Sports, where 90% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars are on the road favorite in the Monday night game. The Bills, who have won and covered four straight since a season-opening home loss to Pittsburgh, opened -4.5 and have spent pretty much all week at -5.5. The total moved from 53.5 to 54.5 early in the week and is now at 54.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: The Bills currently sit as 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings after opening -3.5 in the Week 6 Monday nighter. An impressive Buffalo squad is taking practically all the point-spread tickets and dollars, at 90% and 91%, respectively. The total stands at 54, with 62% of tickets/80% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo (4-1 SU and ATS)) is in prime time for a second straight week – and rightfully so – this time in the Monday nighter. In Week 5 Sunday night matchup, the Bills belted Kansas City 38-20 as 3-point road underdogs. Earlier in the day, Tennessee (3-2 SU and ATS) rolled to a 37-19 win as a 4-point favorite at Jacksonville.

“Buffalo will be a very public side, and there will be a ton of Over money in this game, as well,” Murray said. “This will be one of our biggest Monday Night Football needs of the season, with the house rooting hard for Tennessee.”

There was no early line or total movement.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet pegged Cleveland a 2.5-point favorite at the outset and is at -3.5 tonight. Point-spread ticket count is dead even, while the Browns are netting 62% of point-spread dollars. The total tumbled from 54 to 48, with 65% of tickets on the Over, but 77% of cash on the Under, lining up with that big drop.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This afternoon, it was announced that Browns running back Nick Chubb (calf) would not play Sunday. In response, a line that went from Cleveland -2.5 to -3.5 by Thursday night at Caesars Sports crept back to -3. However, tonight it was announced that Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss Sunday’s game. Caesars followed by returning to Browns -3.5.

Ticket count is dead even, but road underdog Arizona has about a 3/1 edge in money, likely entirely due to a massive $500,000 bet on the Cardinals +3.5. The total didn’t move off the Chubb news, remaining at 49.5, well down from Sunday’s 54 opener. But it dropped to 48.5 following the Kingsbury news. 

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Cleveland bounced between -3 and -2.5 a few times since Sunday night and is currently at the -3 opener at DraftKings. Arizona is taking 72% of point-spread bets, but spread money is very much two-way with a modest nod to the Cardinals at 53%. The total has already tumbled from 53 to 49.5 on very interesting splits, with 92% of bets on the Over and the money running dead even. Weather could be part of the issue, with predicted winds of 20-30 mph.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona is now 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, managing to cover as a 6-point chalk despite a sluggish 17-10 home win over San Francisco. Cleveland (3-2 SU and ATS) wasn’t as fortunate, blowing a 27-13 third-quarter lead while losing a shootout at the Los Angeles Chargers, 47-42 getting 2.5 points.

“It took a lot for the Browns to lose their game this afternoon, but they found a way,” Murray told Props on Sunday night. “This was a fun line to set as we were watching the seesaw battle between Cleveland and the L.A. Chargers. We were between -2.5/-3, but agreed that the sharp guys would gladly take the Cardinals +3, considering how strong of a start they are off to and how horrible the Browns’ defense looked in today’s loss.”

The SuperBook risk room ultimately moved the Browns to -3 later this evening, and the total ticked up to 54.5.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars briefly had Baltimore at -3.5, dipped to -3 Monday and went to -2.5 Thursday. Los Angeles is a very trendy ‘dog this week at Caesars books, landing 81% of spread bets and 86% of spread cash.

“The Chargers have been the biggest public underdog this week. They’ve been awfully impressive this season,” Caesars Sports VP of trading Craig Mucklow said. “But I could see this line getting back up to Ravens -3. There’s supposed to be strong winds in Baltimore, and that favors the Ravens’ offense more so than the Chargers.”

The total in this one got as high as 52 during the week before falling back to 51.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: Baltimore is down to -2.5 from -3 at DraftKings, where all the early action is landing on Los Angeles. The Chargers are in the 90% range of both tickets and money on the spread. The total is already at 52, with 86% of early bets on the Over, but just 56% of cash backing a high-scoring affair.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: As noted, Los Angeles (4-1 SU and ATS) rallied to win a wild one 47-42 giving 2.5 points at home to Cleveland. Baltimore (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) still has Week 4 work to do, hosting Indianapolis in the Monday nighter.

“This was one of the easier numbers to set and probably the game we discussed the least,” Murray said of the conversation in The SuperBook’s risk room. “And that’s even though we were watching the wild Browns-Chargers game as we discussed it. The whole room was Ravens -3.5. Get it up and start writing bets.”

Neither side saw enough early action to move the line. But the total jumped to 49.5 within 30 minutes and hit 50.5 less than an hour after posting, Murray said.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars books moved Denver from -3 to -3.5 on the news that Las Vegas coach Jon Gruden resigned Monday, and the line rose to -4 this morning. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 and money almost 5/1 on the Broncos. The total has spent most of the week at 44 after opening at 44.5.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Denver opened -3 Sunday night at DraftKings and moved to -3.5 Monday night in the wake of Las Vegas coach Jon Gruden’s resignation. The line inched up to Broncos -4 Tuesday afternoon, then returned to -3.5 Tuesday evening. Ticket count is running 2/1 Raiders, but money is almost 4/1 Broncos. The total is down a point at DK to 44, with 82% of tickets on the Over and 59% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Raiders turned heads while winning their first three games, but the past two weeks, they’re looking more like the Raiders of this millennium. In Week 5, Las Vegas (3-2 SU, 2-3 SU) mustered just one field goal and one touchdown in a lackluster 20-9 home loss laying 5.5 points against Chicago.

The Broncos (3-2 SU and ATS) likewise won their first three and have dropped the last two. In Week 5, Denver fell at Pittsburgh 27-19 as a 2-point road fave.

“Both of these teams had bad losses today, and the Raiders are scrambling all of a sudden after their surprising 3-0 start,” Murray said. “Denver has also dropped two in a row, and there are now some questions about their 3-0 start against a very soft schedule. There wasn’t much discussion surrounding this line. A pretty solid -3 in the room.”

The spread and total were stable Sunday night.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dallas opened the week at -3 (-120) and is now -3 (-115) at WynnBet, But Cowboys spread is the book’s second-largest liability at the moment, netting 91% of bets and 93% of cash.

“Our numbers liked the Patriots, so we tried to stay low on them throughout the week,” WynnBet junior trader Patrick Wall said. “We never touched +4, but did take some sharp money at [Patriots] +3.5 on the spread and +165 on the moneyline. We will be big Patriots fans tomorrow.”

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This number has been up and down at Caesars books, where the Cowboys opened -3, peaked at -4.5, and fell back to -3. As of Saturday morning, though, Dallas was back to -3.5. The favorite is getting 84% of spread tickets but just 61% of spread dollars. The total moved from 48 to 51 by Tuesday, then fell back to 50.5 Thursday.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Cowboys opened -3 late Sunday night at DraftKings and surged to -4.5 by Monday morning, though they’ve since backed up to -3.5. But it’s all Dallas so far, with point-spread ticket count and money both in the 5/1 range. The total surged from 48 to 52 by late Tuesday night, then receded to 51 this morning, with ticket count 2/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Dallas (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains the NFL’s spread-covering king this season, romping over the New York Giants 44-20 as a 7.5-point home chalk. New England (2-3 SU and ATS) went off as an 8-point favorite at unheralded Houston and snuck out a 25-22 victory on a late-seconds field goal.

“There was talk of opening this game Cowboys -3, as we know the public will be all over Dallas and it wouldn’t hurt us to write some New England bets tonight.” Murray said. “The money came flooding in on Dallas, and we are already up to Cowboys -3.5. We will need the Patriots big here, likely our biggest decision of the weekend.”

While the spread was on the move early, the total was stable.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Several hours before the Sunday night clash, Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings. That matches the opening number, though the Steelers reached -5.5 late Wednesday night before falling back. Pittsburgh is landing 65% of spread tickets and 71% of spread dollars. The total is at 43 from a 43.5 opener and 42 low point, with the Over drawing 74% of tickets/60% of cash.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Week 6 Sunday nighter isn’t nearly as intriguing without Seattle QB Russell Wilson, and the line surely reflects his absence. Pittsburgh has jumped to -5 at Caesars Sports, up a point from the opener, with 66% of bets/72% of money on the Steelers. The total moved from 43.5 to 42.5 to 43 over the course of the week.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings has the Steelers at -5, largely due to the absence of Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who has a finger injury. But bettors aren’t exactly piling on Pittsburgh early, with ticket count almost dead even and 61% of money on the Steelers. The total is at 42.5, the lowest of all Week 6 games so far, with 84% of bets on the Over, but 54% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The look-ahead line for this game was Seahawks -2.5 last week. But then Seattle QB Russell Wilson wrecked his right middle finger against the Rams, requiring surgery that will keep him out more than a month. The Seahawks lost that Week 5 Thursday nighter 26-17 as 2.5-point home pups, but at least have a mini-bye to adjust to life without their star QB.

Pittsburgh (2-3 SU and ATS) snapped a three-game skid with a 27-19 home win as a 2-point ‘dog to Denver.

“This was one of the tougher lines to set, between the injury to Russell Wilson on Thursday night and the Steelers’ early-season struggles,” Murray said. “We reopened this game Steelers -3.5 [on the look-ahead] after the Wilson injury and took no significant bets. So we felt comfortable with bumping it by half a point after the Steelers’ win today, and seeing what the market does with it. So far, we are still set at Pittsburgh -4.”

The total also hasn’t moved.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: London’s calling for two lackluster teams, but at least Miami gets QB Tua Tagovailoa back from a rib fracture that shelved him for three weeks. That news Friday had little impact on the number, which opened Dolphins -3 at Caesars, spent most of the week at -3.5 and returned to -3 Thursday afternoon. Ticket count is almost dead even, but the winless Jaguars are actually attracting 80% of money. The total stretched from 44 to 47 early in the week and is still 47.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In a lackluster game fully deserving of a move to London and a very early kickoff here in the States, Miami opened -3 at DraftKings, touched -4 a couple of times, and is now back at the opener. The Dolphins are netting 64% of spread bets and 54% of spread money. The total is out to 47.5 from a 45 opener, with 72% of bets/80% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami plays its second straight Sunshine State foe, this time in London, where it hopes for better results than in Week 5. The Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) got spanked 45-17 at Tampa Bay as an 11-point underdog. Jacksonville (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) is still seeking its first win with coach Urban Meyer and rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jags were 4-point home ‘dogs against Tennessee and tumbled 37-19.

Neither the line nor the total moved tonight at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Indianapolis opened as a 10-point favorite at Caesars Sports, spent some time at -9.5 and -10.5, and is now -10 again. It’s the largest spread on the Week 6 odds board. The Texans are actually taking 71% of spread tickets, but the Colts are nabbing 75% of spread dollars, in very large part because of a $500,000 bet on Indy -9.5. The total is at its high point of 43.5 after opening at 43 and spending time at 42.5.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This number bounced around a bit at DraftKings, going from Colts -10 to -9 to -9.5. The Texans are actually getting the bulk of early spread play (80% of bets, 63% of money). The total is at the 43 opener after spending time at 43.5 and 42.5, with 85% of bets on the Over/65% of dollars on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Houston is in the familiar role of being a sizable underdog, facing a double-digit spread for the third time in six weeks. The Texans (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) were only 8-point home pups to New England and fell just short, losing 25-22 on a late-second field goal. Indianapolis (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) plays in the Week 5 Monday night game at Baltimore.

The line and total held firm tonight at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Green Bay reached -6 this morning at Caesars sportsbooks, making a steady climb from Sunday’s -4 opener. The public is certainly on the Packers, who have won and covered four straight games since an ugly Week 1 loss to New Orleans; Aaron Rodgers and Co. are attracting 81% of bets and 86% of cash on the spread. The total dipped from 46 to 44 by midweek.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Packers initially moved from -4.5 to -5 at DraftKings, then retreated to -4 by this morning before returning to the opener at lunch hour. But Green Bay is the play thus far, attracting 80% of tickets and 88% of cash on the spread. The total is down to 44 from a 46 opener, with 79% of tickets on the Over, but 71% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Green Bay (4-1 SU and ATS) has won and cashed four in a row since a flatlining Week 1 performance against New Orleans. But Week 5 was close, with missed field goals galore before the Packers – laying 2 points – beat Cincinnati 25-22 on a late-overtime field goal. Meanwhile, rookie QB Justin Fields and the Bears (3-2 SU and ATS) upended the Raiders 20-9 as 5.5-point road underdogs.

This was another line and total that saw no movement from the opening numbers.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: There is no doubt that Kansas City is the public side this week, but a $500,000 bet on Washington +7 has the splits out of whack at Caesars Sports. To tell you just how much the risk room thinks of that bet, the Chiefs remained at -7. (Update: As of Saturday morning, Caesars had dropped the line to -6.5.) Kansas City is taking a hefty 91% of spread bets, but thanks to that major wager, Washington is getting 83% of spread dollars. The total backtracked to 54 by this afternoon, from a 55.5 opener.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened Kansas City a 6.5-point favorite, briefly reached -7.5 Tuesday, and went back to -6.5 today. But there are almost no believers in Washington at the midweek point. The Chiefs are attracting 91% of spread bets and 98% of spread cash. The total is at 56.5, the highest of any Week 6 game, with 60% of bets/74% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Two-time defending AFC champ Kansas City (2-3 SU and ATS) has had a far tougher first five weeks than anticipated. In the Week 5 Sunday night game, the Chiefs were dealt a 38-20 beating by Buffalo as 3-point home favorites. Washington (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) fell to New Orleans 33-22 as a 2.5-point home ‘dog.

Per standard operating procedure, K.C.-Washington came off the board Sunday night at The SuperBook once the Bills-Chiefs contest began. Chiefs-WFT will go back up Monday morning, and it’ll certainly be interesting to see if Murray and Co. adjust this line downward following the Chiefs’ struggles against Buffalo.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports opened this contest with Carolina a 1-point favorite, but it’s since jumped the fence to Minnesota -2.5. The Panthers are netting 53% of bets and Minnesota 76% of money. Further, there’s a $500,000 bet on Vikings moneyline (even), so the risk room is surely rooting for a Panthers outright win Sunday. The total is down to 46 from a 47 opener.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: The Vikings are fairly stable as 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings, where ticket count is almost dead even and money is 2/1 Minnesota. The total is at 45.5, with 58% of bets on the Over/56% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Minnesota (2-3 SU and ATS) went off as 10-point home chalk against Detroit and needed a final-seconds field goal to scratch out a 19-17 win. Like the Broncos and Raiders, Carolina (3-2 SU and ATS) opened 3-0 but has dropped its last two, including a 21-18 Week 5 setback as a 2.5-point home fave against Philadelphia.

This number didn’t stay at Vikes -1.5 for long, moving straight to pick ’em 25 minutes after going up at The SuperBook. The total was stable.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Cincinnati opened and has been at -3.5 almost all week at Caesars Sports, save for less than 24 hours early on at -3. The Bengals are netting a nominal 61% of spread tickets but 93% of spread cash, backed by a big $500,000 bet on Cincy -3. The total reached 47 this afternoon, down 2 points from the 49 opener.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings moved Cincinnati from -3.5 to -3 Monday and back to -3.5 Tuesday, with early ticket count running 3/1 and early money 5/1 on the Bengals. The total fell from 49 to 47.5, rebounded to 48.5 earlier today, and is now 48, with the Under taking 57% of tickets/90% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Cincinnati certainly had its chances to beat Green Bay in Week 5. But rookie kicker Evan McPherson missed two field goals, one late in regulation and one in overtime, and the Bengals fell 25-22 as 2-point home ‘dogs. Meanwhile, Detroit (0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS) joins Jacksonville as the NFL’s last two winless squads after losing another heartbreaker, giving up a final-seconds field goal in a 19-17 setback at Minnesota as a 10-point pup.

The line and the total were steady Sunday night at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars has the Rams down to -8.5 this evening after opening Los Angeles -10.5. The Rams are taking 88% of bets, but the banged-up Giants are surprisingly bagging 82% of money. The total opened at 48, peaked at 49, and is now 48.5.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings has Los Angeles as a 9.5-point road chalk, down from the -10.5 opener. But bettors aren’t too interested in the big home ‘dog this week. The Rams are collecting 91% of spread bets and 86% of spread cash so far. The total is at 48.5, with 66% of bets on the Under and 59% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Los Angeles (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) enters this matchup off a mini bye following a successful Thursday night trip to Seattle. The Rams dropped the Seahawks 26-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. New York (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had a much tougher go of it in Week 5, getting belted 44-20 at Dallas as a 7.5-point underdog while losing starting QB Daniel Jones (concussion protocol) and running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) to injuries.

The SuperBook moved the Rams to -10.5 within an hour of posting this contest, while the total was stable.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Late Sunday night, DraftKings pegged Tampa Bay a 7.5-point favorite, then dipped to -6.5 late Monday morning. However, it’s practically all Buccaneers thus far on the Thursday night point spread, at 91% of tickets and 94% of money. The total bounced around the past two days, from 52.5 to 53, then down to 50.5 before rebounding to 52.5 by Tuesday afternoon. The Over is netting 72% of tickets/58% of money early on.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tampa Bay boat-raced Miami 45-17 as a hefty 11-point home favorite, moving to 4-1 SU while covering for just the second time this season (2-3 ATS). Philadelphia (2-3 SU and ATS) went to Carolina as a 2.5-point pup and left with a 21-18 victory. So both teams come off wins heading into the Week 6 Thursday night contest.

“This game reminds me of the Panthers-Texans [Week 3] Thursday game, in the sense that every moneyline parlay and teaser we write this week will start here with Tampa Bay,” Murray said. “The big difference is the volume in this game will be much greater. An Eagles win would be a great way for the house to start the weekend. We will need them, so hopefully they can at least keep it within the number. Philadelphia has played a brutal schedule through the first six weeks.”

Neither the line nor the total moved Sunday night.