NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?
No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.
Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? After kicking things off with the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions, we head West and preview the Central Division.
According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet. On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights.
All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 7.
Colorado Avalanche
2020-21 season: 39-13-4 (82 points). 1st in West; eliminated in second round by Vegas
Projected points total: 110.5 (Over -140 / Under +110)
The Avs have been hit enough at PointsBet that the Over juiced up to -140, which given last season’s prorated 120-point pace seems plenty fair. This team is fast, young, and deep. Their Corsi percentage was 58.98%, towering over Montreal’s runner-up 54.5%. But they suffered a big blow with goalie Philipp Grubauer bolting for the Pacific Northwest’s shiny new hockey toy, the Kraken.
Colorado signed Darcy Kuemper to hold down netminding duties, but Kuemper was decidedly not a Vezina finalist last year, unlike Grubauer. (It’s like the Avs and Golden Knights got together and decided last year’s playoff matchup featured too much great goaltending and they were resolved not to repeat that mistake again.) No doubt, this is a lofty point total to surpass, but Colorado has done it before: 118 points during its Stanley Cup-winning season in 2000-01 and 112 points in 2013-14, when the team flamed out in the first round.
Minnesota Wild
2020-21 season: 35-16-5 (75 points). 3rd in West; eliminated in first round by Vegas
Projected points total: 97.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
The Wild’s big offseason move was buying out the final four years of both Ryan Suter’s and Zach Parise’s contracts, ending a longtime pairing in Minnesota between the defenseman and left winger, respectively. The savings let the Wild extend forward Kirill Kaprizov.
Last year, the Wild were stuck in a pandemic-created division with Colorado and Vegas. Now aligning back to proper divisions, the Wild can shed the Knights and just worry about butting heads with the Avalanche. For what it’s worth, Minnesota has topped this points total in four of the last six 82-game seasons.
Dallas Stars
2020-21 season: 23-19-14 (60 points). 5th in Central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 95.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Last year’s pace would’ve put the Stars at 90 points, and their only big offseason adds were Suter — who despite being 36 likely still has some years left in the tank as a top-four guy — and backup netminder Braden Holtby.
Worth noting Dallas did rank eighth last year in Corsi percentage — ahead of Tampa Bay and Toronto. Also worth noting: Full season or shortened, the Stars have pushed past 95 points just once in the last 13 seasons.
St. Louis Blues
2020-21 season: 27-20-9 (63 points). 4th in West; eliminated in 1st round by Colorado
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
St. Louis did add left winger Pavel Buchnevich from the Rangers, but at some point, right winger Vladimir Tarasenko will get the trade he requested. After finishing with at least 99 points in five of six seasons from 2013-14 to 2018-19 — then tallying 94 in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign—last year’s prorated number put the Blues right at 93 points. Is the Laura Branigan magic spent?
Winnipeg Jets
2020-21 season: 30-23-3 (63 points). 3rd in North; eliminated in 2nd round by Montreal
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Winnipeg was almost a full percentage point higher than the Blues last year per Corsi, and the Jets bolstered their blue line by adding Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon. That probably explains why Winnipeg — which finished with 114 and 99 points in the past two full seasons —is juiced more to the Over than its points-total twin, St. Louis.
Chicago Blackhawks
2020-21 season: 24-25-7 (55 points). 6th in Central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 91.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
There are 30 other teams that could’ve had the Vezina winner Marc-Andre Fleury for absolutely nothing. Which is basically what the Blackhawks paid for the future Hall of Fame goaltender, as if he was left out with Wednesday’s trash like an old tube TV that’s been clunking up someone’s basement.
Chicago also scored defenseman Seth Jones, which all should add up to a nice boost for a team that last year would’ve graded out to 80 points in a full 82-game schedule (a team that hasn’t put up 92 points since topping 100 in four straight seasons from 2013-14 to 2016-17).
Sadly, an improved Blackhawks squad means we may be subjected to much more “Chelsea Dagger” this year.
Nashville Predators
2020-21 season: 31-23-2 (64 points). 4th in Central; eliminated in first round by Carolina
Projected points total: 85.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Longtime goaltender Pekka Rinne finally hung ’em up, and Juuse Saros officially takes over in net. Forward Viktor Arvidsson and defenseman Ryan Ellis were shipped out via trade.
The 2017 Stanley Cup loss to Pittsburgh and subsequent President’s Trophy win may be high-water marks for the next couple of years for a franchise that appears to be in rebuild mode. That said, it’s worth mentioning that Nashville hasn’t finished with fewer than 88 points in a non-shortened season (be it due to a pandemic or lockout) since tallying 74 in 2002-03.
Arizona Coyotes
2020-21 season: 24-26-6 (54 points). 5th in West; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 67.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Hey, the Diamondbacks are one of the worst teams in MLB while the ’Yotes figure to be one of the worst teams in the NHL. Twinsies! Despite being the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team, the Cardinals must be nervously looking around and thinking about building a stadium in Santa Fe.
Just how bad is the perception of the 2021-22 Coyotes? Their total opened at 69.5, and bettors have hit the Under enough to drop it two points.
