The Browns host their division-rival Bengals to polish off Week 8 in an AFC North Monday Night Football battle. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Bengals have won two in a row and four of their last five. Conversely, the Browns have lost four straight and five of their last six. Will those trends continue tonight?
Browns vs. Bengals Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -3 (-105) | -175 | O 45 (-110) |
| @ Browns | +3 (-115) | +145 | U 45 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of noon Oct. 31. New to BetMGM? Check out our BetMGM Review to grab the best welcome offer available.
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Oct. 31
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium — Cleveland, OH
- TV: ESPN
Browns vs. Bengals Trends
- The game’s spread has been relatively steady, with the Bengals opening at -3 on Sunday (10/23) and the line nudging up to 3.5 points a few times during the week before settling at its present -3.
- The Browns are 1-4 in their last five home games.
- Cleveland is 15-34-2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
- The Browns are 23-50-1 against the spread in its last 74 games following a straight-up loss.
- The Bengals are 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games versus an AFC opponent.
- Cincinnati is 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
- The Bengals are 8-1 against the spread in its last nine road games.
- Cincinnati is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games versus a team with a losing home record.
- The Bengals are 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games overall.
Jacoby Brissett Is Who We Thought He Was
The Browns were 2-1 after three weeks and an epic collapse in Week 2 away from a 3-0 start to 2022 with Jacoby Brissett leading the club. The veteran backup quarterback threw four touchdowns and only one interception in the first three games this year. However, he’s fallen on his face and looked like a backup quarterback in the last four weeks.
Since Week 4, the Browns have scored 83 points and yielded 114 points. So, Cleveland’s defense has fallen apart. However, Brissett has also been lousy, throwing only two touchdowns and four interceptions during the Browns’ four-game losing streak.
Cleveland desperately needs their running game to lead the offense. But, unfortunately, they have a challenging matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are 10th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, Cincinnati is mid-pack in rushing yards allowed per game (119.0).
Can Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt overcome a challenging matchup? Yes. Still, facing a good run defense and an offense that can force them into catch-up mode is less than ideal.
The Bengals Are On Fire On Offense And Stellar On Defense
The Bengals intelligently shifted to a shotgun-based offense recently, and Joe Burrow has thrived. The Bengals have scored 30 and 35 points in the last two weeks, rattling off 885 yards of offense. And, again, they’ve been much better in the shotgun than out of shotgun. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are 30th in yards per play (3.8) in not-shotgun formations and ninth in shotgun yards per play (6.2).
Unfortunately, they have adversity to overcome with superstar second-year wideout Ja’Marr Chase out with a hip injury. Still, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Hayden Hurst are formidable offensive weapons. Further, the Bengals are eighth in pass DVOA.
The defense is rock-solid as well. As I noted above, they’re a top-10 run defense. Yet, they’re even better at defending the pass, ranking seventh in pass defense DVOA. Cinci’s combination of a top-shelf offense and stellar defense has resulted in a point differential of plus 41 points, the fifth-best mark in the NFL. Moreover, their margin of victory in four wins is 15, 12, 4, and 18. So, they’ve largely won convincingly in their victories.
Browns vs. Bengals Predictions
While I ragged on Brissett above, I failed to convey how bad Cleveland’s defense has been this year. The Browns are a wretched 28th in total defense DVOA and allow the third-most points per game (26.6). I’d be more concerned about Cincinnati’s offense finding a rhythm without Chase against a quality defense. Fortunately, they’re facing a defense that’s barely there at all.
The Bengals have a well-round team with multiple avenues to victory. First, Burrow can put them on his back and light up the scoreboard. However, second, if he stumbles, the defense is stingy and a top-10 unit against the run and pass as measured by DVOA.
Finally, the cold betting trends for the Browns and hot ones for the Bengals are encouraging. As a result, I’ll ride Cincinnati’s momentum and lean into Cleveland’s struggles by laying the three points with the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals -3 | -105 at BetMGM Sportsbook