Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 6 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend.
Best College Football Bets: Week 6
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Iowa vs. Illinois Under 37
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 37 total points | -110 at WynnBet
It’s another week and another Iowa under for this article. Iowa’s hit the under in every game but one, and it took two defensive touchdowns to hit the over. On the other side, Illinois has consistently found the under, hitting its only over by the hook.
Both of these teams want to run the ball, but that will be a near impossibility in this game. Illinois has quietly been one of the best run defenses in the NCAA this season. They’re holding their opponents to only 2.6 yards per carry this season, which ranks fifth in the nation. The Hawkeyes haven’t found a ton of success on the ground this season, and I don’t expect that to change this week.
On the other side, Iowa features one of the best defenses in the NCAA. They’re holding their opponents to only 3.0 yards per carry, which ranks 13th in the country. Illinois has found tremendous success running the ball, as they feature one of the best running backs in the NCAA. Still, I prefer Iowa’s defense overall in this situation.
If both of these teams are able to stop the run, they’re going to force their opponents to rely on their quarterbacks. Spencer Petras is coming off of a surprisingly good game against Michigan, but he hasn’t flashed any type of true talent throughout the season. Tommy Divito’s flashed a bit more, but he’s struggled at times as well.
Both of these defenses should have a massive edge in this game. Their game plans to run the ball should keep the clock moving as well.
Even if Illinois finds some success, I don’t expect Iowa to score all that much. This is another game where we should expect an ugly, low-scoring contest.
Fresno St. vs. Boise State Under 46
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 46 total points | -110 at WynnBet
We’re basically in the opposite situation as Illinois vs. Iowa for this game. Fresno State and Boise State will both be looking to throw the ball in this game. Each team has the ability to run the ball, and they will in this contest, but they’re likely to focus more on their passing attacks.
Both were expected to have high-powered offenses entering the season. That hasn’t truly been the case, though. The Broncos rank 78th in the NCAA in points per play (0.366), while the Bulldogs rank 93rd (0.326).
Both offenses have flashed at times this season, but they’ve also struggled in more difficult matchups. We’ve seen Oregon State and UTEP hold Boise State to a total of 27 points. Fresno State’s also been struggling, posting only 31 points over their last two games.
Both defenses have seen similarly mixed results at this point. Oregon State is an offense that has dominated both defenses. It’s a bit of an odd development, as both of these teams were expected to feature solid defenses in 2022.
Even though they haven’t found much success at this point, I’m leaning more toward the defenses than the offenses in this game. I’m expecting them to fix it slightly easier, specifically with both teams’ styles of play.
Boise State’s found success against the run this season, and they should be able to shut down Fresno’s attempts. This will turn them into a more one-dimensional offense, even if it’s what they’re looking to do in this game.
On the other side, Fresno State could find a bit more success against an offense that hasn’t shown all that much promise this season.
It’s been a surprising season for both teams, but we could see a lower-scoring game than many expect this weekend.
Oklahoma State -9 (vs. Texas Tech)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Oklahoma State -9 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
Oklahoma State went out last week and avenged their Big 12 championship loss by beating and easily covering against Baylor. The Cowboys have been one of the more profitable teams since last year, going 13-2-1 ATS in their previous 16 games.
The offense is on a great run and is fifth overall with 46.8 points per game. Quarterback Spencer Sanders also avenged his two poor performances from last year against Baylor and had a passing and rushing touchdown in the win.
This week he’ll see a Texas Tech offense that allowed Adrian Martinez to go off, including 131 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Sanders has the same ability to move the ball with his arms and legs, so look for him to have some great numbers.
The Red Raiders are also in the midst of a really tough part of their schedule. This will be their third game on the road out of their last four, all against top 25 teams, and so far are 0-2.
You have to love the momentum OK State has and will easily cover.
Utah -3.5 (at UCLA)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Utah -3.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
We all believed USC would coast into a PAC-12 championship, but that isn’t the case with how good the competition is shaping out. Oregon and Washington State are still looking good, but now Washington has turned it around from last season. The reigning conference champs and UCLA look like contenders, and now that the divisions are gone, it makes it more interesting.
Chip Kelly has this offense rolling, and they were able to put up close 500 yards in the win against Washington and are currently 13th in scoring 41.4 per game. They’re going to bring a well-balanced attack in the air and on the ground, with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the PAC-12 in passing efficiency (171.4) and Zach Charbonnet second in rushing yards per game (104.3).
After that loss in the swamp, Utah has been rolling, winning their last four by an average margin of 34.7. The offense is good, but the defense is where they excel, as they can beat anyone in the country in the trenches.
UCLA is 5-0, but their schedule has been easy up till this week, and Utah has a veteran squad to stop this offense.
TCU -7 (at Kansas)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: TCU -7 | +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas has been one of the biggest surprises of the early college football season. They’ve jumped out to a 5-0 record, which is an extremely outlier for this program historically. They’ve won three games or fewer in each of the past 12 seasons, so there’s a reason this school is known more for its work on the hardcourt than the gridiron.
Things didn’t figure to be much different this season. They rank dead last in the Big 12 in 247 Sports’ Composite Talent Index, but they’re clearly better than anticipated.
Still, they haven’t exactly been tested through the first five weeks. They’ve beaten a non-major school in Tennessee Tech, followed by wins against West Virginia, Houston, Duke, and Iowa State. None of those teams have been ranked, so they’ll face their toughest test of the season against TCU.
TCU is also unbeaten, and they’ve faced a bit of a tougher schedule. That includes a 21-point win last week over Oklahoma, and their offense has been absolutely dominant. They rank third nationally with an average of 48.5 points per game, and they’ve averaged 522.7 yards against FBS opponents.
Kansas has averaged less than 400 yards per game, so I don’t think they’re going to be able to keep up. I’ll lay the seven with the Horned Frogs on the road.
Tennessee at LSU Over 64
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Over 64 Total Points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tennessee is built to play in high-scoring contests. Each of their games has eclipsed 60 points, and last week’s matchup vs. Florida cracked 70.
The Volunteers play fast – they rank in the top 21 in terms of plays per game – and their offense is extremely efficient. Quarterback Hendon Hooker has averaged 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt, while their top four rushers each average at least 4.2 yards per carry.
Add it all up, and no team FBS squad has averaged more than Tennessee’s 559.3 yards per game against FBS competition. They’ve also averaged 48.5 points per game, which ranks second nationally.
They’re going to get their points against LSU, and the Tigers should be able to do the same. The Volunteers allowed 595 yards of total offense to the Gators last week, and LSU ranks 23rd in plays per game. That means this game should feature plenty of possessions, which should lead to plenty of points.
The best thing about Tennessee is that the over is never dead. Their game against Florida featured just three points in the first 17 minutes, but the two teams combined for 68 points over the final 43. The sharps have driven this number up from 59.5 at opening, but I still think it’s too low.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 4-2
- John Supowitz: 3-3
- Matt LaMarca: 2-4
More NCAAF Picks: Week 6
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