With NBA training camps opening this week, Props.com offers a breakdown of the league’s 30 teams from an NBA season win total perspective. Having already previewed the Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Pacific, and Northwest divisions, we wrap things up with a look at the NBA Season Win Totals of the Southwest Division.
Unlike last season, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the league to reduce the regular season to 72 games, the NBA returns to an 82-game schedule in 2021-22.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 10 a.m. ET on Sept. 28.
Dallas Mavericks
NBA Season Win Total: 48.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 42-30 (1st in Southwest)
Projected Starters: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber
— The last time the Mavericks won as many as 49 games in any season (pandemic-shortened or otherwise) was 2014-15, when they finished 50-32. So it’s clear the betting market is looking for Luka Doncic to raise his game even higher this season (if that’s even possible).
— Per DraftKings, only two projected division winners have a win total of fewer than 50 games: Dallas in the Southwest and Miami in the Southeast. However, based on the NBA season win totals in this division, the Mavericks are expected to cruise to the division title by seven games. Only the Central Division has a wider gap between the projected first- and second-place teams (Milwaukee’s win expectation is 54.5, 12 games higher than the Chicago Bulls, who are at 42.5).
— The Mavericks posted 26 double-digit victories last season, which is nearly two-thirds of their wins. They also didn’t lose more than two consecutive times in their final 50 contests last year.
— Despite the presence of scoring machine Luka Doncic, Dallas had the worst scoring offense of any division champion last season, averaging 112.4 points per game (17th overall). The club also collected the fewest offensive rebounds of any division winner. On the positive end—and thanks in large part to Doncic—the Mavs ranked eighth overall in three-pointers made (13.8 per game).
— Here’s an interesting schedule quirk: Dallas has back-to-back outings against the same opponent six different times: Phoenix (road), Los Angeles Clippers (twice … road, then home), Minnesota (home-and-home), and Sacramento (road).
Memphis Grizzlies
NBA Season Win Total: 41.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 38-34 (2nd in Southwest), plus 2-0 in West play-in games
Projected Starters: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson
— Prior to those three sub-.500 seasons, the Grizzlies finished with more than 41 victories in six of seven seasons from 2010-11 to 2016-17. The lone exception was a 41-win campaign in 2011-12 when a lockout shrunk the season to 66 games.
— Memphis last year snapped a streak of three consecutive sub-.500 seasons And the club’s 38-34 mark could’ve been even better, as nearly 30 percent of the Grizzlies’ defeats were by five or fewer points.
— The Grizzlies produced top-10 rankings in a slew of major categories last season: First overall in steals (9.1 per game), second in offensive rebounds (11.2 ), third in assists (26.9), and fourth in total rebounding (46.5). Despite those strong numbers, Memphis finished in the middle of the pack (15th) in scoring, averaging 113.3 points per outing.
New Orleans Pelicans
NBA Season Win Total: 39.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 31-41 (4th in Southwest)
Projected Starters: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Devonte’ Graham, Jonas Valanciunas, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
— The Zion Williamson era in New Orleans has been exciting, with the former No. 1 overall pick averaging 27.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 0.9 steals last season. However, the Pelicans have struggled to turn Williamson’s talent into consistent victories, posting win percentages of .431 and .407 in Zion’s first two years. The oddsmakers have New Orleans playing .482 this season.
— The Pelicans are facing a treacherous slate of games in January. The club hosts the Jazz, Suns, Warriors, Timberwolves, Clippers, Pacers, Nuggets, and Celtics. There are also trips to Milwaukee, Toronto, Brooklyn, Boston, and New York. There’s a good chance New Orleans will be underdogs for all but one of those 13 games.
— The Pelicans boast two of the top young players in the league in Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both will have to be spectacular (and healthy) all season for New Orleans to get to at least 40 wins, something the franchise has done just twice in the past 10 years.
San Antonio Spurs
NBA Season Win Total: 28.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)
2020-21 Record: 33-39 (3rd in Southwest), 0-1 in play-in game
Projected Starters: Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl
— The Spurs are coming off back-to-back losing seasons for the time since 1987-88 and 1988-89. In fact, prior to the 2019-20 season, San Antonio hadn’t finished below .500 since going 20-62 in 1996-97. That’s also the last time Gregg Popovich’s squad failed to post at least 29 wins.
— The Spurs never got any consistency going last season, as evidenced by the fact they didn’t post a single winning streak longer than three games. Also, San Antonio lost 24 of its final 35 games.
— The Spurs ranked last in three-pointers made in 2020-21, averaging only 9.9 triples per game. By comparison, the Jazz drained an average of 16.7 threes per contest.
Houston Rockets
NBA Season Win Total: 27.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 17-55 (5th in Southwest)
Projected Starters: Christian Wood, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Jae’Sean Tate, Daniel Theis
— The odds of Houston replicating last year’s 20-game losing streak are long. However, it’s clear based on this victory projection that the NBA betting market believes the Rockets are in for another long season.
— Even after ending their 20-game skid last March, the Rockets went on losing skids of five, five, five and, seven games. The end result was the team’s worst winning percentage (.236) since 1982-83 (14-68, .171).
— The last time the Rockets failed to win at least 28 games in a full 82-game season? Yep, 1982-83. They won exactly 28 in 2001-02 and 29 in 1983-84.
