Welcome to our Week 6 NFL preview!
We’re rolling into Week 6 with some absolutely fascinating matchups, revenge game narratives, and plenty of betting opportunities to dissect.
Let me break down what we’re looking at this week, game by game.
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Week 6 NFL Preview: Predictions, Odds, and Storylines
It’s absolute chaos across the NFL right now, and that leaves us no shortage of things to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend.
Let’s dive into the Week 6 NFL preview, and we’ll kick it off with a classic TNF clash!
Thursday Night Football: Giants at Eagles (-7)
Thursday night NFC East battles are always chippy, and this one’s got some serious storylines.
Jaxson Dart gets the start for the Giants, and we might see Tyrone Tracy back in action. Cam Skattebo has been an absolute workhorse in the backfield, which is cool and all, but man, it’s a shame Malik Nabors went down.
That kid could really be a key cog in Dart’s development, and now the receiving corps looks sketchy at best.
On the Philly side, Saquon Barkley’s revenge game is the obvious narrative. The Eagles have been feeding him the volume – no complaints there – but the numbers haven’t exactly been eye-popping yet.
Bottom line is, the Giants’ run defense has been pretty bad, and this feels like the spot where Saquon could finally pop off.
The Eagles are dealing with some inconsistency issues and injuries on the offensive line, including Landon Dickerson, which is concerning.
We’ll see if Philly can right the ship despite some predictable offensive play-calling and the O-line situation.
Broncos (-7.5) at Jets
Shifting gears to our Tottenham matchup across the pond – the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs with a brutally low 43.5 total. The Jets have been absolutely miserable.
Justin Fields keeps collecting garbage time stats.
Last week against Dallas, he went 32-of-46 for 283 yards and 2 TDs, which looks respectable in the box score.
Fields and Breece Hall (who put up 14 carries for 113 yards) were able to salvage decent fantasy outings. Mason Taylor continued to emerge as a target threat and could be a cheap DFS option this week. Garrett Wilson also got there in garbage time last week.
I’m expecting the Broncos to absolutely pulverize the Jets in this one, as long as they take care of the football.
Browns at Steelers (-5.5)
What we’re looking at here is a typical AFC North slobberknocker. That 37.5 game total is bet down 5 points from the open, which tells you everything about how this one’s gonna play out.
The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, and friends, this one’s gonna be disgusting.
Quinshon Judkins has been a pleasant surprise – the dude racked up 23 carries for 110 yards last week and could legitimately be a league winner in season-long fantasy if he doesn’t get suspended and stays healthy. That’s your boom-or-bust RB2 right there.
Pittsburgh’s coming off a bye week, so they should be rested and able to prepare. Dillon Gabriel peppered his tight ends with targets last week, which is typically what rookie quarterbacks do, but I feel like he might struggle this week against this Steelers defense.
Regardless, I like David Njoku and Harold Fannin a little, depending on where their prop lines open up at.
Cardinals at Colts (-6.5)
The Cardinals are coming off one of the biggest collapses in NFL history (yikes), and they’ll travel to Indianapolis to battle the Colts.
Listen, Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones have one of the best offenses in football right now. Jonathan Taylor is obviously a massive part of that success, even though he only managed 17 carries for 66 yards last week – he scored three times. The volume is elite, and that’s what matters.
Last week on Prime Time Props, I said the only team more broken than the Cardinals was the Titans. Well, maybe the script has flipped a little bit. Now I think this game has a serious opportunity for points. I’m cool with Trey McBride, and honestly, I like just about all the Colts in this one.
Jonathan Taylor is -275 to score a touchdown, which is absolute insanity. That line screams “don’t even think about it,” but the volume’s there for a reason.
Rams (-7.5) at Ravens
Boy, oh boy. The Ravens are absolutely decimated. We’ll need to get a look at the injury report later this week, but they were missing several integral defensive starters, and we’re not even sure what the deal is with Lamar Jackson.
I’m guessing he won’t be active considering the Ravens are 7.5-point home underdogs against the Rams.
The Ravens looked absolutely lifeless. I know backups were playing most of the game defensively, but I’m worried about Derrick Henry getting game-scripted out in this one if Baltimore falls behind early.
Matthew Stafford was ridiculous last week – 30-of-47 for 389 yards and 3 TDs – and that Rams offense is humming. Puka Nacua’s receiving prop yard line is 98.5, which is such a massive number (he had 10 catches for 85 yards last week).
Meanwhile, Davante Adams is at 61.5 after going 5-of-11 for 88 yards. Could be sneaky for some alt totals there.
Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5)
The Jaguars are at home after that thrilling come-from-behind victory against Kansas City. Not taking anything away from Jacksonville, but let’s be real – the Chiefs committed an ungodly number of penalties and really shot themselves in the foot.
I kinda like Seattle as road dogs here after the high Jacksonville experienced, especially coming off a short week.
Sam Darnold was cooking last week – 28-of-34 for 341 yards and 4 TDs with a 135.4 passer rating. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to eat, putting up 8 catches for 132 yards and a TD in Week 5. This offense is legit.
Cowboys (-3.5) at Panthers
Carolina’s 3.5-point home dogs, and I’m sure this will be a target for many people betting and playing DFS this week.
We’ll need an update on Chuba Hubbard, but here’s where it gets interesting: Rico Dowdle absolutely shredded Miami last week – and I mean shredded them – 23 carries for 206 yards and a TD.
The Dolphins have one of the poorest run defenses I’ve seen in recent years, so we can’t expect that output again.
That said, the Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been great either. Statistically, they’ve been better against the run than the pass, but eventually Tet McMillan is going to have a breakout game because he’s getting peppered with targets every week.
It could be a nice week to do it against a terrible Cowboys pass defense which is playing a ridiculous amount of zone coverage this year after Matt Eberflus took over.
On the other side, Javonte Williams had himself a day too – 16 carries for 135 yards and a TD. The Dallas backfield is suddenly interesting, especially vs. the Panthers.
Chargers (-4.5) at Dolphins
The Chargers are coming off a slight dud against Washington and now battle the Miami Dolphins, who are 4.5-point home underdogs.
Omarion Hampton was put on IR, and we’ll see what kind of backfield split the Chargers deal with between Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal.
The Chargers just spread out their volume in the passing game so much – it’s hard to really hammer any of the wide receivers right now.
Darren Waller’s back for Miami, which was a pleasant surprise. I like him again this week.
But circling back to the most talked-about area of this game: the Chargers’ backfield.
I think I like Haskins a little more than Vidal. Head coach Harbaugh trusts him a bit more, plus he’s the bigger body and should get more high-equity goal-line looks.
Patriots (-3) at Saints
The Saints are 3-point home underdogs after New England’s coming off that monster win against Buffalo.
The Saints have been pretty average against the run, but New England’s run game is an absolute mess anyway. I wish Mike Vrabel would take the training wheels off TreVeyon Henderson after Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled again last week.
Let’s face it – Henderson is the much more explosive runner with the football. But you know Mike Vrabel – he likes his veterans, and he’ll milk this thing out. Which is also exactly why Mack Hollins is getting snaps outside. It’s just ridiculous, but some things never change.
The Saints have been pretty average defensively; they’ve just been playing from behind a lot this year.
Drake Maye’s passing yard props are much higher than they were a couple of weeks ago after he went 22-of-30 for 273 yards and a TD last week.
I think Stefon Diggs’ role is real, and if his receiving prop line opens around 50, I would probably take the over.
Two weeks ago, we saw his snap count hit a season high, then we saw him explode last week in that revenge game against the Bills – 10 catches on 12 targets for 146 yards. That’s not noise, people. That’s a legit connection developing.
Surprisingly, he only played 50% of the snaps last week, so it was no secret where the ball was going when he was out there. According to Fantasy Points, Diggs has a massive 54% air yard share and 39% target share across the last two weeks.
Titans at Raiders (-4.5)
The Titans travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, who are 4.5-point home favorites in what could be one of the weirder games of the week.
The Titans had that improbable victory over the Cardinals last week. And yes, the Cardinals had one of the biggest collapses and most pathetic endings to a football game I’ve ever seen.
But it didn’t change the fact that they gave number 1 overall pick Cam Ward an opportunity to have a less-than-two-minute drill, and he was phenomenal.
That was the best series of football we’ve seen Ward play. In critical moments when the game was on the line, he delivered in multiple big ways – even though his stat line (21-of-39 for 265 yards) doesn’t jump off the page. Now we’ll see if that 4th-quarter spurt can transition over to the rest of the year.
I still think Brian Callahan is the worst head coach in NFL history. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans did a complete 180 this week.
It’ll be a new play caller for the third game for Ward, so maybe there’s some more continuity ramping up here. But I don’t trust him as far as I could throw him. They need to nail this next draft class and bring in some talent with their league-leading cap space to help Ward out.
That being said, Calvin Ridley finally showed up last week – 5 catches on 10 targets for 132 yards. That’s the explosiveness we’ve been waiting for.
I like Ridley, and I like Ashton Jeanty in this game. Jeanty put up 14 carries for 67 yards last week, and the volume’s been there. Jeffrey Simmons is basically the only Tennessee defender, and they just have to figure out how to run away from him.
This will be an interesting one to see, and it could be a very good-bad game, if you know what I mean.
49ers at Buccaneers (-3)
Tampa Bay hosts the 49ers, with the Bucs as 3-point home favorites in what should be a fascinating matchup.
We’ll need to see the injury report later this week to see if half the 49ers will even be active. It’ll be interesting to see how the Niners attack Tampa Bay because Tampa is pretty much a pass-funnel, forcing teams to pass against them.
But Christian McCaffrey has to be featured for the 49ers, he makes that offense go. We might see him get some more checkdowns and creative ways to get him the ball in space.
We’ll see if Ricky Pearsall and others will be active, or if it’s gonna be another ridiculous Kendrick Bourne week. Speaking of Bourne, he absolutely went off last week – 10 catches on 11 targets for 142 yards.
On the other side, Emeka Egbuka has been phenomenal even with Chris Godwin back. Over the last two weeks, Egbuka has had a 23% target share to Godwin’s 19% according to Fantasy Points.
Egbuka has a monstrous 51% air yard share over the last two weeks. Baker’s looking for him for the big play, and according to Fantasy Points, Egbuka has a 16.5 aDOT, which is massive.
Mayfield continues his resurgence, posting 29-of-33 for 379 yards and 2 TDs with a ridiculous 134.7 passer rating last week. This offense is cooking.
Bengals at Packers (-14)
The Bengals play the Packers in the 4 o’clock window, and friends, the Packers are monstrous 14-point favorites. That spread tells you everything you need to know about how this one’s projected to go.
It appears the Bengals have moved on from Jake Browning after they traded for Joe Flacco earlier this week. Yeah, that’ll fix it…..
Browning went 26-of-40 for 251 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs last week with a 76.1 passer rating. The Bengals’ offensive line is so bad that I fear for Flacco’s life – if he’s going to start.
Ja’Marr Chase managed 6 catches on 10 targets for 110 yards and 2 TDs last week despite the chaos. The talent’s still there – it’s everything around him that’s the problem.
On the Green Bay side, I like Josh Jacobs a lot in a positive game script.
Theoretically, you think he could score twice? Although I don’t have touchdown odds on him just yet. If the Packers jump out to a lead – which seems likely – Jacobs should feast in clock-killing mode.
We’ll leave the prime time games for the rest of the Props crew to break down. Enjoy Week 6!
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