This column is all about trending MLB players to target this week. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
All Major League batters are talented, but there are typically cold spells during every marathon-like season.
Advanced metrics of a hitter could indicate proper process, but the results can be anything but positive due to a number of reasons.
But hold on a second – how do we identify these candidates? Most rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play).
When we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five such examples each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate of at least 20.0%, a BABIP of .250 (or less), a strikeout rate of 20.0% (or less), and a hard-contact rate of at least 35.0% during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
Editor’s Note: Check out our FREE daily best MLB props analysis!
Best DFS Apps in All States
MLB Trending Players: 5 Unlucky Hitters Due for Breakout Weeks
Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s MLB trending players and try to make a case for a potential breakout in the upcoming games.
- Bo Naylor, CLE: 27.3% line-drive rate/ .242 BABIP/ 11.9% strikeout rate/ 36.4% hard-contact rate (42 PAs)
- Upcoming 7-day Schedule: @ARI- 8/19, 8/20; @TEX- 8/22, 8/23, 8/24; vs. TBR- 8/25
To be clear, Naylor scuffling at the plate is nothing novel as far as this season is concerned, as he’s limping along with a .181/.280/.362 slash line across 319 plate appearances.
However, his numbers thus far in August underscore how much bad luck he’s been running into.
There’s not much more you can ask of a hitter than to square up as consistently as Naylor has been while keeping strikeouts to well below league average.
However, as is evident in a BABIP that’s also well below average, Naylor keeps finding the opposition’s glove more often than not when putting the ball in play, even as he also boasts a career-best 10.3% barrel rate.
Cleveland faces just one left-handed pitcher across the next week (Eduardo Rodriguez on Tuesday), and it will also include a matchup against Brandon Pfaadt, who’s allowed a .294 average and .340 wOBA to lefty bats at home.
He’ll also see a Rays’ bullpen to begin next week that has pitched to a 5.00 ERA, .321 BAA, and a .375 wOBA against lefty bats this month, sparking some hope for a turnaround.
- Mookie Betts, LAD: 23.3% line-drive rate/ .241 BABIP/ 8.3% strikeout rate/ 35.0% hard-contact rate (72 PAs)
- Upcoming 7-day Schedule: @COL- 8/19, 8/20, 8/21; @SDP- 8/22, 8/23, 8/24; vs. CIN- 8/25
Betts’ season has been disappointing as a whole, as all three components of his .242/.312/.370 slash line heading into Aug. 19 action are career-low figures.
Nevertheless, the eight-time All-Star has been putting good wood on the ball of late but often running into some tough luck, even as he’s making contact at a very high clip.
Mookie could be seeing some hits start to fall in, however, as he’s at the cure-all venue of Coors Field to start the next seven days of games, facing Austin Gomber, Tanner Gordon, and Chase Dollander over the next three days.
Betts owns a career .283 average and .808 OPS at Coors, and a solid .772 OPS at Petco Park as well, which is the Dodgers’ next stop after this series against Colorado.
- Marcus Semien, TEX: 20.8% line-drive rate/ .196 BABIP/ 12.1% strikeout rate / 39.6% hard-contact rate (66 PAs)
- Upcoming 7-day Schedule: @KCR- 8/19, 8/20, 8/21; vs. CLE- 8/22, 8/23, 8/24; vs. TBR- 8/25
Another big name who’s been at odds with Lady Luck recently, Semien has a real grievance considering his sub-.200 BABIP and nearly 40.0% hard-contact rate to date.
The veteran slugger has had a bit of a ragged year at the plate overall (.228/.303/.364 slash across 524 PAs). But his recent rise in both line-drive and hard-contact rates, paired with his impressively modest strikeout rate, is a good recipe for success.
All of those encouraging numbers have netted Semien a lowly .203 average during that sample, which is bound to ascend toward the mean.
He also happens to have some upcoming encounters with starting pitchers that could also help him snap out of his funk.
Semien has found some success in small samples against Thursday’s scheduled KC starter Michael Lorenzen (3-for-4), and he is also 2-for-3 vs. Friday’s probable Guardians’ starter Slade Cecconi.
Two More Positive Regression Candidates For This Week
- Mark Vientos, NYM: 23.1% line-drive rate/ .200 BABIP/ 16.1% strikeout rate/ 42.3% hard-contact rate (31 PAs)
- Upcoming 7-day Schedule: @WAS- 8/19, 8/20, 8/21; @ATL- 8/22, 8/23, 8/24; vs. PHI- 8/25
Vientos was a trending MLB player for most of the season – but for bad reasons.
He lost some playing time recently due to his struggles, which in August have included an abysmal .207/.194/.379 slash line and .232 wOBA despite his formidable line-drive and hard-contact rates, as well as his perfectly acceptable strikeout rate during that same period.
The .200 BABIP tells the story of what has to be a particularly frustrated hitter at the moment, but better days should be in Vientos’ very near future if he keeps up those encouraging metrics.
Three-game sets at Nationals Park and Truist Park in humid temperatures could certainly help the promising 25-year-old, who just broke out with a career-best 27 homers in 2024.
Furthermore, the matchup against a Washington bullpen that’s yielded a 5.95 ERA, .310 average, .847 OPS, and a .364 wOBA to right-handed hitters in August may be just what the doctor ordered.
- Mike Yastrzemski, KC: 21.1% line-drive rate/ .176 BABIP/ 16.4% strikeout rate/ 44.7% hard-contact rate (55 PAs)
- Upcoming 7-day Schedule: vs. TEX- 8/19, 8/20, 8/21; @DET- 8/22, 8/23, 8/24; @CWS- 8/25
It’s been a more-or-less ho-hum season for Yaz between the Giants and Royals, although he’s shown some nice pop since arriving in KC with four doubles and four homers across his first 55 plate appearances.
Those XBHs are certainly welcome, but they’re arguably just a percentage of the success he should be seeing when considering the combination of his line-drive/strikeout rates and BABIP in that sample.
Yastrzemski will likely be out of the lineup on a couple of occasions during the next week with likely matchups against southpaws Patrick Corbin and Martin Perez, but the overall matchups against the bullpens don’t line up too badly for him as a left-handed hitter.
The Tigers ‘pen has allowed six homers and a .344 wOBA to lefty bats in August, while White Sox relievers have conceded seven round-trippers in the same span, MLB’s second-highest figure in that split going into Aug. 19 action.
Additionally, Yaz will draw one of his favorite matchups during the next week, as he’s tormented the Tigers’ scheduled starter for Saturday, Chris Paddack, for a .389 average and 1.339 OPS in 20 career encounters.
Stay tuned for more MLB trending players and breakout candidates next week!
