With training camps set to open soon, Props.com offers a breakdown of the league’s 30 teams from an NBA season win totals perspective. After previewing the Atlantic Division on Thursday, we turn our attention today to the Central Division.
Unlike last season, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the league to reduce the regular season to 72 games, the NBA returns to an 82-game schedule in 2021-22.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings, updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 17.
Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Win Total: 54.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 46-26 (1st in Central)
Projected Starters: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo
— Fresh off their first NBA title in 50 years, the Bucks enter the 2021-22 season with the second-highest expectations of any team, trailing only the Brooklyn Nets’ win projection of 56.5. Milwaukee also topped this win total in 2019-2020 when it went 56-17 in a pandemic-shortened season. Prior to those two seasons, the Bucks hadn’t won as many as 55 games in a season since going 57-25 in 1985-86.
— The last 10 NBA champions that played 82 games during their title-winning season averaged 59 wins in their title-defense campaign. So the Bucks could fall as many five games short of that average and still get over their win total.
— The Bucks went 9-4 against the five Eastern Conference teams with winning records last season (Sixers, Nets, Knicks, Hawks, and Heat).
— More than 60 percent of Milwaukee’s victories (28) were by double digits last season, during which the Bucks produced eight different streaks of four-plus victories. The defending champs did lose consecutive games 11 times but had only three losing skids longer than that (with the longest being five games).
— The Bucks owned the best point differential among Eastern Conference teams last season (5.8 points per game). They also led the NBA in scoring offense (120.1 points per contest) and finished second in field-goal shooting (49.4 percent).
— After a relatively easy first-half schedule with no extended trips out West, things get dicey for Milwaukee. During a 28-game span from Jan. 28-April 3, the Bucks only face nine non-playoff teams from last year (the Bulls three times, Pacers, Hornets, Thunder, Warriors, Kings, and Timberwolves).
Chicago Bulls
Projected Win Total: 42.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 31-41 (3rd in Central)
Projected Starters: Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Nikola Vucevic
— Clearly, the betting market is bullish on Chicago entering this season, as its win total is 7.5 games higher than what last season’s .431 winning percentage would’ve yielded in a full 82-game slate (35 wins). The reason: A retooled (and seemingly upgraded) roster that features a new high-profile backcourt of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan joining Nikola Vuecevic (acquired at last spring’s trade deadline).
— Ball joins a squad that finished fourth overall in assists last season, so it’s easy to envision Chicago moving up the ladder in that category. Also, the Bulls finished in the top 10 last season in offensive rebounds (5th overall), three-pointers made (6th), total rebounds (7th), and three-point field-goal percentage (9th).
— Despite finishing 10 games under .500 in 2020-21, Chicago held its own in Eastern Conference (21-21), divisional (7-5), and road (16-20) games.
— The Bulls’ 2021-22 schedule is bookended by a pair of potentially treacherous stretches. The first leg covers Oct. 28-Nov. 22 and includes the Knicks (twice), Jazz, 76ers, Nets, Mavericks, and Pacers at home, as well as road trips to Boston, Philadelphia, Golden State, Los Angeles (Clippers and Lakers), Portland, and Denver. It’s conceivable that Chicago will be an underdog in at least 11 of those 14 contests.
Then from Feb. 24-April 6, spanning six full weeks, the Bulls will face a steady barrage of playoff-worthy clubs: Hawks, Grizzlies, Heat (twice), Bucks (three times), 76ers, Jazz, Suns, Pelicans, Knicks, Clippers, and Celtics.
— You have to go back to the 2014-15 season for the last time the Bulls won as many as 43 games (50-32). In the four subsequent 82-game seasons, Chicago merely averaged 33 victories.
Indiana Pacers
Projected Win Total: 42.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 34-38 (2nd in Central), plus 1-1 in East play-in games
Projected Starters: Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, Caris LeVert
— If the NBA handed out a “Most Unpredictable Team of the Year” award, the Pacers would’ve won it going away last season. They never lost more than four consecutive games; 15 of their 34 wins and 18 of their 38 defeats were by double digits; and they posted the Eastern Conference’s best road record (21-15), but the second-worst home mark (13-23), ahead of only the cellar-dwelling Orlando Magic (11-25).
— More oddness from the 2020-21 Pacers: They ranked eighth and ninth overall in assists and three-pointers made, respectively. However, they were subpar in overall field-goal percentage (14th overall), scoring offense (17th), and total rebounds (24th).
— There’s no disputing Indiana’s toughest stretch in 2021-22. In 18 games from Jan. 5-Feb. 8, the Pacers will host playoff-caliber foes the Nets, Jazz, Celtics, Suns, Hornets, Clippers, and Bulls. Along the way, Indiana has 10 road games, half of which occur out West in Los Angeles (Lakers and Clippers), Golden State, Phoenix, and New Orleans (in addition to stops in Boston, Dallas, and Atlanta).
— The saving grace: During this 34-day period, the Pacers will only have two back-to-back games.
— Prior to last year, Indiana won between 42 and 48 games in five consecutive seasons, including the pandemic-shortened 2019-2020 campaign. In fact, since 2011-12, the Pacers have failed to win at least 43 games just four times—and in two of those instances, they won exactly 42.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Win Total: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 22-50 (4th in Central)
Projected Starters: Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, Isaac Okoro, Darius Garland
— How loaded are the Cavaliers in the frontcourt? Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, and touted rookie Evan Mobley (No. 3 pick in the NBA draft) might be coming off the bench on Day 1. That’s a lot of enviable depth for a team that’s expected to be a bottom feeder for at least one more season.
— The Cavaliers finished last in scoring in 2020-21, averaging only 103.8 points per game (at one point they went nine straight games without scoring 100 points). Cleveland, which suffered 27 double-digit defeats and had two double-digit losing streaks, also endured bottom-10 rankings in field-goal percentage (28th overall), three-pointers made (28th), and assists (24th).
— The NBA schedule-makers were somewhat generous with the Cavaliers, who face only 11 back-to-back situations in 2021-22. Also, their longest road trip (six games from Jan. 7-15) features just two teams that qualified for the 16-team playoff tournament last season (Utah and Portland).
— Not surprisingly, Cleveland hasn’t fared well in a post-LeBron James era, going 60-159 over the past three seasons. That .274 winning percentage equates to 22.5 victories over an 82-game schedule, exactly four fewer wins than the team’s projection for this season.
Detroit Pistons
Projected Win Total: 25.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 20-52 (5th in Central)
Projected Starters: Saddiq Bey, Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes
— The Pistons are in full rebuilding mode with a roster peppered with youngsters, including Hayes, Stewart, Bey, Saben Lee, Isaiah Livers, Luka Garza (college basketball’s reigning Player of the Year), and Cunningham, this year’s No. 1 overall pick.
— Detroit definitely “earned” its No. 1 pick, as nearly 60 percent of last season’s 52 defeats were by 10 points or more, and its longest win streak was a whopping two games (which happened only twice). The Pistons also finished in the bottom 10 in several categories, including total rebounds (22nd), field-goal percentage (24th), scoring offense (25th), and field-goal percentage defense (26th).
— The Pistons had the league’s second-worst record last season (topping only the Houston Rockets). Yet the league stuck Detroit with arguably the toughest early-season schedule of any non-playoff team. The opening 12-game slate includes seven road games (at Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Houston, Cleveland, and Toronto), as well as five difficult home contests (Bulls, Magic, Bucks, 76ers, and Nets).
Then from Nov. 24-Dec. 26, Detroit faces a brutal 16-game stretch that includes 11 road games. It begins with a five-game trip to Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Lakers and Clippers), Portland and Phoenix, and ends with a three-game journey to New York, Miami, and San Antonio.
— In four straight 82-game seasons from 2015-19, the Pistons averaged 40.5 victories and easily surpassed this year’s win total each time. That said, not a single player on Detroit’s current roster has been with the franchise longer than one season.
