In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and DFS PGA picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3, and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
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Golf Props Today – Outright Winner & Round 2/3/4 Picks
Every week, we look at our top outright winner picks for the upcoming tournament. We’ll then examine Rounds 2, 3, and 4 from a DFS and betting perspective.
TOUR Championship – Round 4
Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood are tied at the top of the leaderboard heading into Sunday, but a host of other golfers are within striking distance.
That includes Scottie Scheffler, who is four shots back of the lead ahead of Round 4.
Here are the top five in strokes gained tee to green so far, via Data Golf:
Patrick Cantlay (+2.18)
Keegan Bradley (+1.94)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.78)
Rory McIlroy (+1.17)
Russell Henley (+0.88)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 3:
Scottie Scheffler (+6.12 Tee To Green, +2.77 Approach, -2.55 Putting)
Chris Gotterup (+2.21 Tee To Green, +0.79 Approach, -1.64 Putting)
Rory McIlroy (+1.08 Tee To Green, +0.06 Approach, -2.51 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
A quick overview of our top player picks for the upcoming slate
Though he wasn’t quite as sharp in Round 3, Russell Henley has a chance to win the TOUR Championship on Sunday. He’s two shots behind the leaders.
Henley is one of the best pure ballstrikers in the world, so it’s no surprise he’s contending for the victory at East Lake. His form has been excellent coming in, and his game has looked strong across the board this week.
Even if he’s not able to secure the win, we believe Henley will shoot 68 or better on Sunday.
Also Consider:
Rory McIlroy LOWER Than 67.5 Strokes
Good luck!
TOUR Championship – Round 3
Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley are tied at -13 after the first two rounds at the 2025 TOUR Championship. It’s shaping up to be an exciting weekend at East Lake.
Here are the top five in strokes gained tee to green so far, via Data Golf:
Patrick Cantlay (+1.65)
Robert Macintyre (+1.60)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.58)
Cameron Young (+1.39)
Ben Griffin (+1.28)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 2:
Ben Griffin (+2.07 Tee To Green, +1.46 Approach, -2.27 Putting)
Harris English (+2.47 Tee To Green, +0.91 Approach, -1.67 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
A quick overview of our top player picks for the upcoming slate
After missing a golden opportunity to keep pace, can Scottie Scheffler make some magic happen on Saturday?
It’s not like Scheffer is out of the running by any means. He’s only five shots back of Fleetwood/Henley despite his forgettable Round 2, and given his overall form, it’d be foolish to count him out with 36 holes remaining.
Top Play: Scottie Scheffler LOWER Than 65.5 Strokes (Underdog)
TOUR Championship – Round 2
Russell Henley tore up the course on day one, shooting -9 to lead by two over Scottie Scheffler.
Here are the top five in strokes gained tee to green so far, via Data Golf:
Ludvig Aberg (+2.44)
Robert Macintyre (+2.41)
Jacob Bridgeman (+2.30)
Rory McIlroy (+2.07)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.05)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 1:
Jacob Bridgeman (+2.30 Tee To Green, +2.70 Approach, -2.03 Putting)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.44 Tee To Green, -0.34 Approach, -1.17 Putting)
Rory McIlroy (+2.07 Tee To Green, +1.12 Approach, -0.80 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
A quick overview of our top player picks for the upcoming slate
Rory McIlroy looked solid on Thursday, gaining over two strokes tee to green. He’s at -4 for the tournament and in a great spot heading into the second day of action at East Lake.
Top Play: LOWER Than 67.5 Strokes (Underdog)
TOUR Championship – Outright Winner
Editor’s Note: Props staff is tag-teaming this one! Justin Carlucci is coming in with the outright picks!
We only have a 30-man field, and I have a high level of interest in the same guys I’m betting to lead after round one:
- Viktor Hovland
- Justin Thomas
- Collin Morikawa
You’re getting about as good of odds as anyone could ask for on those three guys who have great course history, proven winnners, and all-world ball strikers.
Who do I think actually wins?
Well, hopefully one of those three – but it’s hard to “bet against” Rory or Scottie. I can’t lay the Scottie price, but you can talk me into Rory at +850. He’s my model’s top “pure winner” play, and it makes sense.
Also consider Russell Henley, who is playing the best golf of his career, and another guy at solid odds. That being said, I can’t justify his odds being tighter than Hovland, Thomas, or Morikawa, so he just misses my card.
I’ll probably look for a live bet on Rory if he’s pedestrian during/after Round 1, and I’ll stick with Hovland, Thomas, and Morikawa pre-tourney.
Good luck!
PGA Strategy – Golf Props & DFS Tips
Betting on golf is in many ways a completely different animal than normal head-to-head sports betting.
However, fundamentally it is the same baseline proposition: can we find expected value against the value offered by the marketplace?
The situation is skewed, because in golf win betting we are often dealing with tournament results and not head-to-head results, which give us tantalizing payouts and maddening near-misses on odds that are dozens to hundreds of times the multipliers of most other sports.
Something to keep in mind: just like in real tournament golf, patience and discipline and belief in your process are key, and one big event can change your entire season.
So, how do we find expected value in golf?
The Importance Of Data
Really simply, we want to find golfers who have a chance of playing better than it seems they are playing.
Buying a data subscription alone and just playing the numbers will NOT make you profitable. The advanced analytics are available to everyone, including oddsmakers.
The key is learning to understand why the data is what it is, is how we can dig into the details to find trends that are actionable.
Sites uses a strict formula to combine past results and recent results to create a projection, and it is the best overall formula anyone has ever made, but what we want to look for are golfers who can make a case that they don’t fit the exact model, and have value that isn’t being captured by projections.
So in layman’s terms, here are some really great ways you can find potential value in a golf tournament field:
Recent Form
Golfers who have a track record of playing very well, but have had some bad results lately that we expect them to bounce back from (if recent poor results are just due to poor putting alone, this is ideal, as putting is by far the most variable category in golf)
Young golfers whose true value is still increasing every week and hasn’t been captured properly by the modeling timelines that are used by Vegas and Data Golf, as well as being slow to catch the public’s eye.
Golfers who have been playing extraordinarily well lately, but historically aren’t that good, are not well captured by Vegas models.
For example, a golfer having a “breakout” year can be slow to pop in the industry models. This is an especially good situation if we can tie this performance increase to something tangible, such as a swing coach change, an offseason increase in driving distance, or another technique change or injury comeback situation.
In these cases, we want to put particular emphasis on driving and iron play, as these are less likely to be the result of random fluctuations in performance.
Course Fit
The last angle that can sometimes be used to get an edge is extreme course-fit outlier situations. The thing about mathematical models is that they can be weak in truly capturing extreme outliers.
On the PGA Tour, course fit week-to-week is much talked about and a very entertaining aspect of the game for fans and commentators, but it is generally very well accounted for by Vegas, and most tend to over-value these adjustments.
OVERALL FORM AND RATING IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN COURSE-FIT — a good fit for the course should always just be the icing on the cake for a good play.
One thing to look out for is the really extreme length outliers – the very longest and very shortest few courses each season, that truly limit a portion of the field from competing with their best weapons.
This happens in just a few events per year, but it does happen, and there you can find value in a true “specialist” in the field, such as guys who make their career through putting and putting alone, or an absolutely wild bomber who doesn’t gain many strokes through the rest of the bag.
Featured Image Credit: Imagn
