The NBA play-in tournament has been fun. But come Saturday, we get down to the serious business of series play. In fact, three games on the Saturday NBA playoffs odds board have been set since before the play-in tournament, so those matchups have been percolating all week.
And the fourth matchup, the No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies, was quickly set Tuesday night following Minnesota’s victory in the play-in tourney.
Props.com grabs insights from multiple oddsmakers on NBA playoffs odds for Saturday’s games. Check back for updates through tipoffs of each contest.
Saturday NBA Playoffs Odds and Betting Action
No. 6 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors (8:30 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Warriors opened as 4-point favorites at WynnBet but are up to -6.5 (-112), with stops at 5.5 and 6 along the way. Though 66% of bets are on the Nuggets, Golden State is taking 60% of money. The total opened at 224, then went to 223.5 and 223 before going back to the current 223.5. There is another divide here, with 62% of bets on the Over but 56% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Golden State (53-29 SU, 31-37-4 ATS) was a trendy preseason pick to win the NBA championship, on the expectation that oft-injured All-Star Klay Thompson would be back at some point this season. The standout guard finally returned Jan. 9, more than 2.5 years after an ACL tear in the 2019 NBA Finals, followed by an Achilles tear while working out in November 2020.
Superstar backcourt mate Stephen Curry (foot) has been out since March 16, but all signs point to Curry playing Game 1. The former two-time MVP was hurt in a home game against Boston after playing just 14 minutes. The Warriors went on to lose that game 110-88, which started a 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS slide. However, Golden State finished the regular season on a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS surge, capped by Sunday’s 128-107 thrashing of New Orleans as a 6.5-point road chalk.
The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games, but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite.
Denver will ride the shoulders of reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic, who is strongly favored to win this season’s MVP award, too. The Nuggets (48-34 SU, 36-45-1 ATS) were hit-and-miss in their final five games (2-3 SU and ATS). However, they did enough to dodge the No. 7 seed and the play-in tournament. In Sunday’s regular-season finale, Denver lost a shootout to the Los Angeles Lakers, 146-141 in overtime as a 6-point road favorite.
The Nuggets are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, part of a broader 6-12 overall ATS slide. Denver is also 1-4 ATS in its last five as a postseason pup. That said, the Nuggs closed the regular season on a 5-0 ATS upswing as a road ‘dog and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 roadies overall.
Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State during the regular season, and the teams split the cash, with the visitor covering all four times. But Golden State is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings overall with Denver.
The Over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 outings and has hit in four of the Nuggets’ last five on the highway. On the flip side, Golden State sports Under upticks of 5-2 overall and 4-1 at home. Plus, the Under is 6-2 in the last eight Nuggets-Warriors battles (2-2 this season).
Golden State is out to a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM, after opening -4.5. Early ticket count is 2/1-plus and early money 5/1 on the Warriors. The total reached its low point of 222.5 Friday morning after opening at 225.5 Monday. Ticket count on the total is almost even, but 90% of early dollars are backing the Under.
No. 5 Toronto Raptors vs No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers (6 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The 76ers opened as 4.5-point favorites at WynnBet, spent a few hours Monday at -4, then held at -4.5 the rest of the week. That’s despite 75% of bets and 86% of money flowing to Philadelphia. The total opened at 217.5 and has dropped to 216, with 74% of bets on the Over, but 77% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Philadelphia (51-31 SU, 37-43-2 ATS) finished with a mini-flurry, going 5-1 SU in its last six games. That included a 118-106 win over Detroit as a 6.5-point home chalk in Sunday’s finale. However, the 76ers haven’t been as solid lately for bettors, with the cover against the Pistons coming after a 1-7 ATS slide.
Philly is also 1-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 following a spread-cover. But Joel Embiid and Co. like their rest, cashing the last four when playing after a break of three or more days.
Toronto (48-34 SU, 47-35 ATS) worked its way up to No. 5 in the East by way of a late-season 8-1 SU surge (6-3 ATS). The Raptors then lost a meaningless regular-season finale at the Knicks, 105-94 as 1-point road favorites.
Even with that setback, Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine roadies, as well as 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 as a playoff pup. The Raptors also went 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS against the Sixers this season. Toronto, an underdog in all four contests, posted outright wins in both trips to Philly. The latest meeting was April 7, with Toronto nabbing a 119-114 victory as a 3.5-point home ‘dog.
The Over went 3-1 in those four Raptors-76ers matchups, and the Over hit in Philly’s last four regular-season games (5-1 run overall). Further, the Over is 5-0 in the Sixers’ last five at home. On the flip side, Toronto sports Under runs of 19-7 on the road and 9-3 in first-round playoff games.
The 76ers have been a stable 4.5-point chalk this week on BetMGM’s Saturday NBA playoffs odds board. Philadelphia is attracting 73% of bets and 71% of money on the spread. The total opened at 217.5 Monday and by Thursday afternoon dipped to 215.5, where it sits now. The Over is seeing 68% of bets, but 53% of cash is on the Under.
No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (3:30 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 2:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Memphis hit TwinSpires’ Saturday NBA playoffs odds board as a 7-point favorite, and with tipoff looming, the line is -6.5. The Grizzlies are landing 69% of spread tickets, but just 53% of spread dollars. “Sharp play on Timberwolves +7,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total rose from 234.5 to 237.5, with 63% of tickets/73% of cash on the Over. “A mix of public and sharp play on the Over,” Lucas said.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Memphis has been an on-court surprise, finishing with the NBA’s second-best SU record at 56-26. The Grizzlies also have been a boon for bettors this season with an NBA-best 52-29-1 ATS mark, a 64.2 percent spread-covering clip. With its playoff position secure, Memphis rested a bit in the final week, going 1-3 SU (1-2-1 ATS). But prior to that, the Grizzlies posted a seven-game winning streak (6-0 ATS) — all without All-Star guard Ja Morant.
Morant (right knee injury) missed nine consecutive games from March 20-Arpil 7 before returning for Saturday’s home game against New Orleans, tallying 21 points, four rebounds and nine assists. He was among several starters who rested in Sunday’s finale, when the Grizzlies got rolled 139-110 as 9-point home underdogs to Boston. Still, Memphis is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games, and the Grizzlies are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 laying points.
Minnesota (47-36 SU, 42-38-2 ATS) had to win a play-in game to secure a spot in the NBA playoffs for just the second time in 18 seasons. On Tuesday, the Timberwolves fended off the ninth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers 109-104 as a 3-point favorite. Prior to that, the TWolves had failed to cover in four straight games, part of a 2-8 ATS overall nosedive.
Minnesota is in further ATS ruts of 1-4 on the highway and 4-9 catching points.
These teams split their four games SU and ATS this season, with the home team winning and cashing each time. The most recent clash was Feb. 24, a 119-114 TWolves win and cover as a 2-point home underdog. But Memphis has owned this rivalry the past three seasons, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS.
The Over is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six outings, with the lone Under coming in Tuesday’s play-in win over the Clippers (total 231.5). Memphis is 4-1 to the Over in its last five games, though that was preceded by a 6-1 Under run. In addition, the last two TWolves-Grizzlies meetings stayed Under after a 5-1 Over stretch.
BetMGM opened Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite in the Saturday NBA playoffs odds market. The Grizzlies advanced to -7 Thursday morning, then returned to -6.5 this afternoon. Early ticket count is 4/1 and early money 6/1 on Memphis. The total opened at 234.5, dipped to 233.5 late Thursday morning, then climbed back to 234.5 late Thursday afternoon. Tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the Under.
No. 5 Utah Jazz at No. 4 Dallas Mavericks (1 p.m. ET)
UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: An hour before tipoff, Utah is -5.5 on DraftKings’ Saturday NBA playoffs odds market, ticking down from -6 midmorning. The Jazz opened -1.5 Monday and quickly stretched to -4 on news that the Mavs likely wouldn’t have Luka Doncic (calf) for Game 1. The line receded to -3 early Tuesday, but by Tuesday afternoon was out to Jazz -4.5, then got to -5 Thursday and 5.5 this morning, when Doncic was formally ruled out.
Utah is taking 58% of spread bets, but that’s translating into 80% of spread dollars. The total opened at 216.5 and steadily declined throughout the week, reaching its low of 208.5 midmorning today. Ticket count is actually 5/1-plus on the Over, and money is just shy of 2/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Utah (49-33 SU, 33-45-4 ATS) won the Northwest Division, while Dallas was second in the Southwest Division. But the Mavs (52-30 SU, 46-35-1 ATS) nabbed the higher seed by way of their better record. But Dallas is expected to be shorthanded Saturday — and in a big way — as star guard Luka Doncic is unlikely to play due to a calf injury.
Dallas finished the regular season with a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS surge, winning their last four games (3-1 ATS). Among those four wins was an impressive 118-112 victory catching 6.5 points at Milwaukee on April 3. The Mavs capped the regular season with a 130-120 victory over San Antonio, narrowly failing to cash as 10.5-point home favorites.
A late-season 1-5 SU slide (0-6 ATS) kept Utah from improving its postseason position, but the Jazz went 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in their last four outings. Utah finished by blasting Portland 111-80 as a 17-point road chalk.
These teams split four regular-season meetings, with the home team winning each time. But Dallas cashed in all four contests, including a 114-100 win giving 4 points March 27.
The Over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven games, which runs counter to its season as a whole. The Mavs were the NBA’s top Under team, at 50-31-1 during the regular season. Further, the Under is 5-2 in the last seven Jazz-Mavs meetings, with the last two contests — both in Dallas — staying low.
Due to Doncic’s status, Utah moved from a -1.5 opener to -4.5 by Tuesday, then advanced to -5.5 Thursday in BetMGM’s Saturday NBA playoffs odds market. The Jazz are taking a modest majority 56% of spread bets, but that’s translating into 71% of spread money. The total opened at 216.5, crashed to 208.5 by Thursday and is now 209.5 (Under -115). Early ticket count is dead even, but 88% of early cash is on the Under.
