For the past month, Major League Baseball fans have been acutely aware of the epic battle between the San Francisco Giants (currently 95-50) and defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers (93-53), in pursuit of the National League West title.
As a bonus, it’s reasonable to conclude the NL West champion will also serve as the top seed in the NL playoffs. Consequently, the loser of the NL West race will end up as the Wild Card No. 1 slot, but only the No. 4 seed during the NL postseason.
So, there’s a lot riding on the Giants-Dodgers rivalry down the stretch. Home-field advantage could mean everything.
Perhaps interesting on the MLB playoff odds board is the less heralded race for the NL’s second wild card—with the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets harboring hopes of the final postseason prize.
Props.com assesses each team’s chances, while highlighting the MLB playoff odds of each club.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings, updated as of noon ET Sept. 15
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
RECORD: 75-69 (2nd place, NL Central)
CURRENT STATUS: Wild Card #2
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +210 / NO -265
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
1 game vs. Mets, 3 vs. Padres, 3 vs. Brewers, 4 at Brewers, 3 vs. Cubs, 4 at Cubs
— The Cardinals, winners of four straight, are taking full advantage of the Reds (6-13 since Aug. 24) and Padres (8-21 since Aug. 11) fading out of contention. And now, they’re in the driver’s seat for the coveted second wild card. Not bad for a St. Louis club with a minus-12 run differential for the season.
— Forget about the Cardinals’ 5-7 record against the Brewers this season. Milwaukee’s magic number for clinching the NL Central race is now five, meaning the club could conceivably lock things up this weekend. With the Brewers being completely nestled into the No. 2 seed for the NL playoffs, they might be on cruise control for all seven meetings with the Cards.
— Charting September stats, the Cardinals’ pitching staff ranks third in wins and fifth in team ERA among National League clubs. On the offensive side, St. Louis has crushed the second-most home runs for the month.
— Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has been on absolute tear since July 21. For this 11-start stretch, Wainwright boasts the following tallies: 9-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 61 strikeouts/14 walks and a .193 opponents’ batting average.
— If the Cardinals go 11-7 down the stretch, the trailing teams would need the following finishes just to match St. Louis’s 86-76 record: Reds 11-6, Padres 12-6, Phillies 14-4, Mets 14-2.
That’s a tough ask, considering the four trailing teams have a cumulative mark of 13-27 over the last 11 days.
CINCINNATI REDS
RECORD: 75-70 (3rd place, NL Central)
CURRENT STATUS: Trailing Cardinals by 1/2 game for WC #2
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +130 / NO -165
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
5 games at Pirates, 3 vs. Pirates, 2 at White Sox, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 vs. Nationals
— Tuesday’s loss at Pittsburgh, while deflating, might have been a short-term hit for Cincinnati, which owns a 9-2 record versus the Pirates this season. With eight games remaining against the NL Central cellar-dweller, the Reds have no logistical excuse for failing down the stretch.
— Cincinnati will likely garner another scheduling break next weekend. The Washington Nationals, ravaged by injuries and deadline-period trades this season, are 20-47 since July 1.
— The Reds could be the most dangerous postseason team of this contending group. Three starters (Wade Miley, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray) have ERAs of 3.80 or lower and preseason ace Luis Castillo might possess the nastiest stuff in a one-game, winner-take-all setting.
— Cincinnati has a favorable slate down the stretch (minus three contests with the Dodgers), but there is one concern: no head-to-head encounters with the Cardinals, in case the Reds need to make up a cluster of games in a compressed timeline.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
RECORD: 74-70 (3rd place, NL West)
CURRENT STATUS: Trailing Cardinals by 1 game for WC #2
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +260 / NO -360
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
5 games at Giants, 3 vs. Giants, 3 at Cardinals, 4 vs. Braves, 3 at Dodgers
— You know the expression Life isn’t fair? Well, this could easily apply to the Padres, whose final 18 games all involve playoff contenders and/or elite teams. What’s more, with the Giants and Dodgers fighting for the NL West crown and No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs, it’s possible San Diego won’t encounter a single opponent resting its starters down the stretch.
— There isn’t much to celebrate with the Padres these days, given their brutal finishing slate, the mounting injuries with starting pitchers and the horrible track record over the last month (8-21 since Aug. 11). But here’s one positive: San Diego is 3-0 this season against St. Louis (next week’s opponent).
— Shortstop/outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (38 homers, 90 RBI, 91 runs, 25 steals, .280 batting average, .987 OPS) remains on solid footing for National League MVP. Will this trend become a galvanizing force for the slumping Padres, who have scored three or fewer runs in 12 of their last 18 games?
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
RECORD: 72-72 (2nd place, NL East)
CURRENT STATUS: Trailing Cardinals by 3 games for WC #2
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +500 / NO -700
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
2 games vs. Cubs, 3 at Mets, 3 at Braves, 3 at Marlins, 3 vs. Orioles, 4 vs. Pirates
— The Phillies controlled first place in the National League East for eight glorious days last month. However, since Aug. 15, Philadelphia four games below .500. The dual result: The division crown (Atlanta leads the East by 4.5 games) and wild-card hopes fade with each passing day.
— On offense, the Phillies have performed poorly in September. Among NL clubs, Philly currently ranks 10th in on-base percentage, 12th in runs, 12th in RBI, 12th in OPS and last in doubles for the month.
— Among this cluster of Wild Card No. 2 contenders, the Phillies are the only ones who won’t encounter repeat opponents down the stretch. Philadelphia won’t have the luxury of loading up against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Miami for multiple series.
— Projecting 85 to 86 wins seems like a reasonable threshold for the second wild card, regardless of who occupies the slot. In that vein, the Phillies would need a 14-4 finish just to reach that benchmark. Is this doable? Probably not. However, it’s worth noting Philadelphia has produced three winning streaks of five or more games this season.
NEW YORK METS
RECORD: 72-74 (3rd place, NL East)
CURRENT STATUS: Trailing Cardinals by 4 games for WC #2
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +900 / NO -1600
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
1 game vs. Cardinals, 3 vs. Phillies, 4 vs. Marlins, 2 at Red Sox, 3 at Brewers, 3 at Braves
— Let’s start with one positive side of the Mets’ daunting MLB playoff odds: For the month of September, the New York hitters rank second in runs, homers, RBI and OPS among NL clubs.
— The above nugget notwithstanding, it’s difficult to take New York’s wild-card campaign seriously. Yes, history is full of playoff-bound teams collapsing down the stretch, but it’s usually the Mets squandering a divisional or wild-card lead in the final days. For example, the Mets recently enjoyed a six-game winning streak, and yet, the club still owns a 12-19 record since Aug. 13.
— If the Cardinals (currently Wild Card #2) posit a finishing kick of 11-7, the Mets must go 14-2 down the stretch. That’s a highly unlikely close for New York, which hasn’t had the services of ace Jacob deGrom (elbow) since early July.
— The above hypothetical doesn’t even account for the Reds (1/2 game behind the Cards) potentially catching fire over the final two-plus weeks. Perhaps 87 victories will become the WC2 high point.
