Our Injury Report NBA article is here to bring you all of the daily updates needed to maximize your bets for the day.
Make sure to check back regularly to this NBA injury report article as each pick could help inform your betting. We’ll update this article with three of our top injuries that will have a significant impact on certain matchups.
Today’s Key NBA Injury Report – Friday, Dec. 20
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We have a very light slate for a Friday, as there are only three games on tap. However, there are some notable names on the injury report.
This article typically examines the top three confirmed or potential prominent absences on the night’s NBA slate and how the player’s team may be impacted, including how others could benefit from that star potentially being off the floor.
As usual, make sure to check social media and team injury reports for up-to-date injury news closer to tipoff!
Joel Embiid, 76ers, QUESTIONABLE (face):
Embiid is questionable for Friday’s game against the Hornets, a rematch of a Monday matchup that the big man also missed due to his sinus fracture. Philadelphia still prevailed in that game by a 121-108 score, with Tyrese Maxey, who came into the game sporting a 30.9% usage rate with his teammate off the floor, recording a team-high 40 points along with five assists, four rebounds and four steals while also leading the way with 39.9% usage for the night.
Paul George, who was second for the season in usage (28.4%) with Embiid off the floor coming into the night, was fittingly the second-biggest beneficiary to the tune of a season-best 33 points that he complemented with eight assists, five rebounds, two steals, one block and a 26.6% usage rate. Maxey and George also took 28 and 20 shot attempts, respectively, the latter figure a season-high figure for PG13.
The victory pushed the 76ers’ record without Embiid this season to 8-10, and Philadelphia is a massive 11-point favorite as of Friday morning for tonight’s game despite the possibility of another absence.
Andre Drummond is likely to be part of the first unit again Friday should Embiid sit out after serving as his direct replacement at center Monday. Drummond made good use of the opportunity, providing nine points, 12 rebounds, one assist, two steals and one block across 28 minutes (17.4% usage rate).
Damian Lillard, Bucks, OUT (calf):
Lillard apparently sustained a right calf strain during the Emirates NBA Cup Final victory over the Thunder on Tuesday, and even the extra couple of days following the game aren’t enough for him to suit up Friday.
The absence will be Lillard’s fourth of the season, with the other three coming consecutively Nov. 12-16 due to a concussion. Milwaukee was actually just two points away from going 3-0 in that stretch, topping the Raptors and Pistons by 14 and seven points, respectively, before taking a one-point loss to the Hornets in the third game.
Milwaukee went with different first-unit backcourt configurations over those three absences, as Khris Middleton had still to make his season debut at the time due to an ankle injury. In the first game, Ryan Rollins manned point guard next to AJ Green at two-guard. Delon Wright stepped into the point guard role for the second contest next to Green and remained there for Lillard’s third absence as well, but Green was swapped out for Andre Jackson Jr.
Wright was essentially a non-factor in those two starts and has been out of the rotation altogether for the last four games. Instead, Green is now listed as Lillard’s top backup at point guard on the depth chart and is likely to draw the start Friday. The third-year guard is enjoying a solid season off the bench with career bests in points (8.1), overall shooting percentage (47.8%) and three-point shooting (47.6%).
Giannis Antetokounmpo is unsurprisingly the biggest overall beneficiary when Lillard is off the floor, sporting a team-high 36.2% usage rate and averages of 33.4 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes in that scenario. The rise in ball-handling opportunities and assists is the most drastic, considering the big man is averaging a notably lower 6.1 dimes per game overall for the season.
Brandon Miller, Hornets, QUESTIONABLE (ankle):
Miller will likely carry a questionable tag into Friday’s rematch with the 76ers due to an ankle injury. The second-year star missed his fifth game of the season Thursday against the Wizards due to the same issue, a game the Hornets dropped by a 123-114 score. The other four absences came consecutively between Oct. 25 and Nov. 1.
The loss took Charlotte’s record without Miller this season to 1-4. In Thursday’s defeat, LaMelo Ball saw his already elevated usage rate climb without his backcourt mate available. The star point guard finished the night with a team-high 41.9% figure and led the way with a 34-point, 13-assist double-double that also included three rebounds and four steals.
Frontcourt mates Mark Williams and Miles Bridges were next with matching 16-point tallies and usage rates of 26.7 and 23.1%, respectively. All of those numbers line up closely with season-long figures when Miller is off the floor. Ball leads the way in that instance as well with 41.5% usage, Williams checks in with 25.4% and Bridges is right behind him with 24.9%. Notably, one player who’s between the latter pair and Ball – Tre Mann, who sports a 27.6% usage rate when not sharing the court with Miller – remains out due to a back injury.
As far as Miller’s replacement as the starting shooting guard, it was veteran Seth Curry filling that role Thursday. Curry played a minor complementary role against Washington, providing eight points, four rebounds, three assists and three steals while going just 3-for-9 from the field. Those results were similar to those Curry provided while starting in all four of Miller’s early-season absences, when he averaged 9.8 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists across 25.5 minutes per game, albeit with much more efficient shooting (50.0%, including 52.9% from three-point range).
NBA Injury Report Betting Guide
With a long 82-game season that’s played out on the unforgiving surface of the hardwood – not to mention the fact players are faster and more physical than ever – injuries are a nightly albatross for coaches, players, fans and bettors alike to contend with from their respective perspectives.
Pay Attention To Star Players
For those of us spectators that like to add a little monetary incentive to the games we consume, NBA injuries to frontline players are particularly impactful due to the compact number of players on a first unit and the inherent dependency the production of each typically has on their teammates.
Usage Rate Is Key
Perhaps the single most revelatory metric for gauging the impact of a player’s absence is usage rate, commonly defined as a measure of what percentage of a team’s plays a specific player is involved in by touching the ball in some form.
There is no shortage of tools available that pinpoint what players benefit the most from another’s absence in terms of a rise in usage rate, and those same tools also typically provide each player’s average in all major categories when another specified player is off the floor.
Line and Total Movement Impact
The bigger the name in terms of an injured player, the bigger the impact naturally is on betting strategy.
However, that in itself is a multi-layered scenario – there are many factors that go into determining how to go about wagering on a team missing a major star on any given night, including how much line and totals movement has occurred as a result of the news.