We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best NFL ladder bets for the Thanksgiving slate.
If you’re not familiar with this kind of play, a ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
Don’t Look Down – NFL Thanksgiving Ladder Bets
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for our best NFL ladder bets for the Thanksgiving slate.
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Caleb Williams Passing Yards Ladder
Unsurprisingly, Williams has been inconsistent as a rookie, but he’s flashed elite potential. He’s thrown for 2,356 yards with 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through 11 starts. He’s recorded 300+ passing yards in three of those games.
Williams is coming off of arguably his best starter of the season. He threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings last week. His highest yardage total was 363 yards against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3.
Williams gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions this week. They’re allowing the sixth-most passing yards (232.7) per game this season. The Lions are only allowing 6.8 yards per attempt, but they force their opponents to throw against them.
The Bears are double-digit underdogs in this game, and they’re going to have to rely on their passing attack. Williams could throw the ball 40+ times again this week, and he’s a player who has more than enough ability to cash this entire ladder.
What to bet: Caleb Williams 225+ passing yards through 275+ passing yards
Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards Ladder
Dowdle is a bit of a weird player at this point. He’s been fine in terms of success this season, posting 488 yards on 112 carries. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, though, and he has yet to break 100 rushing yards in any game.
The Dallas Cowboys recently stated that he backfield is his, though, and he’s no longer in a split with anyone. He’s coming off of one of his best games of the season, posting 86 yards on 19 carries against the Washigton Commanders. This weas his second-best yardage total of the game, as he posted 87 yards on 20 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5.
Dowdle gets a good matchup against the New York Giants this week. They’re giving up the fourth-most rushing yards (116.9) per game to opposing running backs this season. The Giants are also allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season.
The Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, meaning they are likely to rely a bit more on their running game. I don’t love Dowdle or this rushing attack as a whole, but he could see 20+ carries in this game. If that’s the case, we’re getting too good of odds to pass up.
What to bet: Rico Dowdle 70+ rushing yards through 100+ rushing yards
Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Ladder
Smith is one of the most underrated tight ends in the NFL. He’s posted 48 receptions for 535 yards and 4 touchdowns on 61 targets this season. He’s also posted 40+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games.
It took Smith a minute to solidify his role in the offense, but he’s ran 19+ routes in every games since Week 5. He’s averaging 5.6 receptions for 65.3 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 6.9 targets per game in those contests. He flashed elite upside, topping out at 101 yards in Week 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Smith gets a tough matchup against the Green Bay Packers defense. They’ve found tremendous success this season, but they are susceptible to the tight end at times. The Packers are allowing 5.4 receptions for 55.0 yards on 6.8 targets per game to tight ends.
Smith’s locked into great route participation, and he’s posted 101 and 87 yards over his last two weeks. He could see another solid role in the offense with Green Bay performing so well against wide receivers.
This is another spot where Smith feels like he’s being a bit underpriced.
What to bet: Jonnu Smith 40+ receiving yards through 100+ receiving yards