The NFL serves up its annual three-game Thanksgiving feast Thursday, and although some of the teams involved certainly have records that weren’t envisioned when the schedule was first released, there’s never a shortage of interest or intrigue in holiday football.
The first appetizer is a Bears-Lions clash in the Motor City. Detroit has put its years of Thanksgiving struggles from earlier this century firmly behind it and comes in with an NFC-best 10-1 record. Dan Campbell’s squad has frequently looked unstoppable, but the Bears look better on offense and five of their seven losses have come by a total of 18 points. Moreover, Chicago lost by only five at Ford Field last season with less weaponry on offense.
The Giants-Cowboys will engage in the usual mid-afternoon Turkey Day battle at AT&T Stadium. A Tommy DeVito-Cooper Rush matchup is far from what would have been expected at the start of the season, and the same applies to the teams’ combined 6-16 record. Yet, there are still multiple appealing skill-position players on either side that can offer some intriguing prop opportunities.
Finally, Tua Tagovailoa and co. look to overcome their reputation for cold-weather struggles when they drop in on the Packers at Lambeau Field. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens by the time kickoff unfolds. The Dolphins looked nothing like themselves when they were last in similar conditions – Miami mustered all of seven points against the Chiefs in sub-zero temperatures at Arrowhead during a wild-card loss in January.
NFL Thanksgiving Picks
With the stage set, let’s examine a pair of player prop opportunities from each Thanksgiving clash on Underdog and PrizePicks.
Caleb Williams More Than 226.5 Passing Yards
Yes, the Bears keep finding creative ways to lose. However, Williams and the offense have shown marked improvement under interim coordinator Thomas Brown.
Williams has completed 70.5% of his passes over the first two games under Brown’s play calling. Additionally, he encouragingly showed improvement from the first to the second game by throwing for 340 yards and a pair of TD tosses in Sunday’s OT loss to the Vikings.
The Lions have a similarly aggressive defensive scheme but have allowed a 64.4% completion rate overall and 10.5 yards per completion in their last three games. Detroit is also facing an NFC-high 64.1% pass play rate at home thanks to how good the Lions have been against the run, and Williams figures to have to remain aggressive given the offensive juggernaut on the opposite sideline.
Where to play: Caleb Williams higher than 229.5 passing yards | PrizePicks
Jahmyr Gibbs Higher Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Gibbs’ backfield mate David Montgomery suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12 and failed to practice Monday, which puts his status for Thanksgiving very much in question.
Gibbs is averaging 24.1 receiving yards per game while playing with D-Mont alongside him. He’s reached at least 20 receiving yards in seven of 11 games and is facing a Bears defense whose weakness has been against running backs.
Chicago is also allowing 29.3 receiving yards per game to RBs, and with Gibbs’ speed, he only needs one catch to eclipse this mark.
Where to play: Jahmyr Gibbs higher than 19.5 receiving yards | Underdog
Malik Nabers Higher Than 53.5 Receiving Yards
Nabers will give the proverbial “squeaky wheel gets the grease” theory a good test Thursday. The rookie wideout didn’t mince words when expressing his dissatisfaction with his lack of first-half targets during a Week 12 blowout loss to the Bucs.
Head coach Brian Daboll acknowledged Monday he and his staff have to do a better job getting Nabers involved early in games. With Big Blue going nowhere at 2-9, the ball going to Nabers early and often Thursday seems like a virtual certainty.
Trevon Diggs (groin) may be hard-pressed to make it back for this game after missing Sunday’s win over the Commanders, which would further clear the path for Nabers to clear this mark for the eighth time in 10 games.
Where to play: Malik Nabers higher than 53.5 receiving yards | PrizePicks
Rico Dowdle Higher Than 66.5 Rushing Yards
Dowdle appears to be in complete control of the Cowboys’ lead-back role. He outpaced Ezekiel Elliott by 16 carries in Sunday’s win over the Commanders and this is another game where Dallas shouldn’t have to abandon the running game.
The Giants have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to RBs and Dowdle has cleared this mark in half of the six games in which he’s seen double-digit carries, including on both occasions that he’s cleared 15 rush attempts.
Dowdle should have a chance at a solid workload and some chunk gains against this defense.
Where to play: Rico Dowdle higher than 66.5 rushing yards | Underdog
Tua Tagovailoa Lower Than 22.5 Completions
I expect the Dolphins to put a concerted effort into getting the air attack going early in the frigid Lambeau conditions in order to build some confidence/momentum.
However, Tua and his receivers will still have a tall order. Green Bay is allowing just a 62.7% completion rate at home and faces the league’s eighth-lowest pass play rate in that split (53.01%).
Tua completed under 58.0 percent of his passes in his two cold-weather late-season games in the 2023 season/postseason (at BAL, at KC) and there’s a good chance Green Bay’s standout defense and the home crowd can help keep him to a modest success rate again.
Where to play: Tua Tagovailoa lower than 22.5 completions (1.06x payout) | Underdog
Josh Jacobs Higher Than 0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs
Cold temps and a workhorse back are often a winning combination. The conditions and personnel will fit the bill Thursday, considering the aforementioned projected weather and Jacobs’ typical volume.
Jacobs has scored six rush TDs in the last four games and also has one receiving score. The Dolphins have surrendered 13 total TDs to RBs over 11 games, and Jacobs has 29 red-zone touches across 11 contests.
Where to play: Josh Jacobs higher than 0.5 rushing + receiving TDs (0.9x payout) | Underdog