The NFL Week 10 slate is packed with exciting matchups, but significant injuries are altering the landscape, creating intriguing betting opportunities for savvy player prop bettors.
Let’s break down three games where injuries open up value in the betting market.
NFL Week 10 Injury Report: Top Value Player Prop Targets
Sam Pasco analyzes three key matchups in Week 10 and breaks down his best bets.
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Game 1: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Overview:
This NFC South rivalry takes center stage as the Saints host the Falcons. The Falcons lead the division with a 6-3 record, while the Saints are in turmoil at 2-7 and missing key pieces, including WR Chris Olave (concussion). Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 46.5.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
Chris Olave’s absence leaves the Saints’ passing attack thin, thrusting RB Alvin Kamara and TE Juwan Johnson into expanded roles. Kamara’s dual-threat ability makes him a key focal point, particularly in the passing game.
- Prop Target: Alvin Kamara Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Kamara has cleared this number in two straight games against Atlanta and will see increased targets with Olave out. Atlanta’s defense ranks 20th in passing yards allowed per game and struggles against receiving backs.
- Prop Target: Juwan Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions (-184)
Johnson is a reliable short-yardage option and has hit this pick in his last two home games. With Olave sidelined, Johnson should see more looks over the middle.
Game 2: Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
Overview:
The Bills (7-2) face the Colts (4-5) in what could be a trap game for Buffalo. Indianapolis is without WR Michael Pittman Jr. (back/finger), leaving rookie Josh Downs and RB Jonathan Taylor as the primary playmakers.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
With Pittman sidelined, QB Joe Flacco will need to rely heavily on Downs and Taylor. The Bills, while strong, have shown vulnerabilities against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
- Prop Target: Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Taylor has hit his stride, averaging 83.7 rushing yards per game over his last six contests. The Bills rank 25th in rushing yards allowed per carry, and Taylor’s workload should spike in this matchup.
- Prop Target: Josh Downs Under 6.5 Receptions (-135)
While Downs is a key weapon, Flacco’s struggles to sustain drives against elite defenses will likely limit his volume. This pick has also hit in three straight games.
Game 3: Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Overview:
The Vikings (6-2) travel to Jacksonville (2-7) with the Jaguars expected to start QB Mac Jones in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
Trevor Lawrence’s absence severely limits Jacksonville’s offensive potential, forcing them to lean heavily on RB Tank Bigsby and the defense to keep the game close.
- Prop Target: Tank Bigsby Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Bigsby has been a consistent producer, hitting this number in three straight home games. With Jones under center, expect a run-heavy game plan to limit turnovers.
NFL Week 10 presents intriguing player prop betting opportunities influenced by key injuries.
In the Saints-Falcons matchup, Alvin Kamara (over 40.5 receiving yards) and Juwan Johnson (over 2.5 receptions) are positioned for increased roles with Chris Olave sidelined.
The Bills face the Colts, where Jonathan Taylor (over 74.5 rushing yards) can exploit Buffalo’s weak run defense, while Josh Downs (under 6.5 receptions) may struggle with Joe Flacco under pressure.
Lastly, in Vikings-Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence’s expected absence shifts focus to Tank Bigsby (over 49.5 rushing yards), likely to lead Jacksonville’s offense. These picks leverage injury-driven game dynamics to uncover value.