If you happen to be a big fan of betting underdogs in the opening week of the NFL season, well, you’re probably not reading this. Rather, you’re likely out buying a yacht—and paying for it in cash.
And if you like to back NFL favorites in Week 1? We ask that you please step away from all sharp objects.
It was a wild start for NFL betting trends as the 2021-22 campaign kicked off, with underdogs dominating literally from start to finish: The Dallas Cowboys covered a big opening-night number at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Las Vegas Raiders pulled off the outright Monday Night Football upset of the Baltimore Ravens.
Let’s press the rewind button and examine how Week 1 went down from a side and total perspective with Props.com’s inaugural NFL Point Spread Report. Check back throughout the season as we keep a running tally of ATS and Over/Under results, thus giving you some free time to, you know, price shop that new yacht.
Note: All results based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
NFL Betting Trends: ATS & Over/Under
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 7-9 SU | 7-9 SU |
| Favorites ATS | 4-12 ATS | 4-12 ATS |
| Over/Under | 7-9 OVER | 7-9 OVER |
The Dogs Have Their Day(s)
The Thursday night season opener between the Cowboys and Bucs was a doozy, with Tampa Bay securing a 31-29 victory after Tom Brady (of course) engineered a final-minute drive that ended with a game-winning field goal.
However, at no point were the Bucs covering the 9-point spread (at best, they had a 28-19 lead for nearly six minutes late in the third quarter). Little did bettors realize Thursday night, but Dallas getting the money in a game that drew a ton of Tampa Bay action was the precursor to a dog-heavy week.
Underdogs went on to cash in 12 of the 16 opening-week games. What’s more, nine of those pups won outright, capped by the Raiders’ thrilling 33-27 overtime victory over Baltimore as a 3-point home dog.
The only favorites that brought home the cash in Week 1: The Panthers (-3.5) edged the Jets 19-14 at home; the Seahawks (-3) pounded the Colts 28-16 in Indy; the Broncos (-3) went to New York and prevailed 27-13 over the Giants; and the Rams (-9) dominated the visiting Bears, 34-14.
Steelers Bark Loudly In Buffalo
Pittsburgh earned “Big Dog of the Week” honors, overcoming a 10-0 halftime deficit against the Bills and winning 23-16 as a 6.5-point road pup. Of the eight other teams that pulled off outright wins, none received more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers.
In fact, the closing line in 11 of the 16 games in Week 1 landed at 3.5 points or less. In those particular contests, favorites went 3-8 straight-up (SU) and 2-9 ATS. On the other hand, favorites of 6 points or more—the Bucs, Rams, Bills, and San Francisco 49ers—went 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS.
The Niners went off as the biggest chalk of the week, laying 9.5 points at Detroit. San Francisco was well on its way to an easy cover until the feisty Lions snuck through the backdoor. Trailing 41-17, Detroit scored two touchdowns and a pair of 2-point conversions in the span of 46 seconds late in the fourth quarter to get inside the number in a 41-33 defeat.
An Over Here, An Under There
While there was a clear ATS victor in Week 1, the results were split nearly right down the middle on the totals front.
Seven games flew over the total, while nine stayed under the number—and only a handful had totals bettors biting their nails. One was in Tennessee, where the Cardinals throttled the Titans. Bettors with tickets on Over 54 likely were counting their cash when Arizona took a 38-13 lead with three minutes remaining in the third quarter. However, those tickets became tinder after the final 18 minutes went scoreless.
In Cincinnati, Under 47.5 looked like a sure winner when the Bengals—leading 24-21 with 1:48 to go—downed a punt at the Minnesota 5-yard line. Alas, nine plays later, Vikings kicker Greg Joseph drilled a 53-yard field goal on the final play of regulation. The kick tied the game 24-24 and forced overtime … make that “Over”-time.
Flying High In Prime Time
On the edges from a totals standpoint, the highest total (54.5 in Browns-Chiefs) easily soared over (33-29 final), while the lowest total (41.5 in Broncos-Giants) easily stayed under. (New York scored a TD on the game’s last play to make the final score 27-13.)
And while bookmakers made a bundle of dough in Week 1 thanks to the underdogs, they were forced to give some back in this regard: The three prime-time games—which almost always draw a lot of Over action, especially from the public—all soared Over the total. Dallas-Tampa Bay went over 52.5 on Thursday night (31-29 final); Chicago-L.A. Rams went over 46 on Sunday night (34-14 final), and Ravens-Raiders went over 50.5 on Monday night (33-27 final).
Will the high-scoring trend hold up in Week 2’s trio of marquee games? Will the dogs run wild again? Check back here next week—same time, same channel.
