When it comes to MLB win totals, the odds market has the highest of expectations right where one might assume: The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to lead all of baseball. And Dodger Blue will have to reach 100 wins to cash your Over ticket.
But Los Angeles did that and more last season — despite failing to win its division.
Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB regular-season win totals. Next up to the plate is the NL West, where the Dodgers aim to reclaim the division title from their hated rival, the San Francisco Giants.
2022 NL West Win Totals
| Team | Win Total |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 99 |
| San Diego Padres | 87.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 84.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 69.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 66.5 |
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 30
Los Angeles Dodgers Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 106-56 (1st)
2022 win total projection: 99
Key additions: SP Tyler Anderson, 1B Freddie Freeman, SP Andrew Heaney, RP Daniel Hudson
Key subtractions: INF/OF Matt Beaty, RP Kenley Jansen, RP Joe Kelly, RP Corey Knebel, 1B Albert Pujols, SP Max Scherzer, SS Corey Seager
The Dodgers are the first team in MLB history to win 106 games and not be crowned division champions, as the surprising Giants did them one better by winning 107. If you feel Los Angeles can match or approach its 2021 performance, plenty of sportsbooks out there will gladly take your bet. The SuperBook initially posted the Dodgers’ number at 99.5, then ticked down to 99, but that’s still the highest of any team in the 2022 MLB win totals market.
The Dodgers’ 1-2-3 starting-pitching punch of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Clayton Kershaw is hands down the best in MLB. When a three-time Cy Young award winner (Kershaw) is the No. 3 option in your rotation, expectations should be high. So, too, should the projected season win total, which Los Angeles has regularly exceeded of late. Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, the Dodgers have won at least 104 games in three of their last four campaigns.
Led by free-agent acquisition Freddie Freeman, this 2022 version of the Blue Crew will boast MLB’s best lineup in recent memory. And that’s despite losing stud shortstop/2022 NLCS and World Series MVP Corey Seager, who accepted a monster free-agent contract from the Rangers. To make up for Seager’s lost production, L.A. reeled in Freeman, who helped the Atlanta Braves eliminate the Dodgers in the 2021 NLCS and go on to win the World Series.
While this squad is absolutely stacked, it isn’t without question marks — namely, who falls in line behind The Big three in the rotation? Ideally, the No. 4 slot would belong to fireballer Dustin May, but he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery that cut short his 2021 season. The bullpen also is revamped, after longtime closer Kenley Jansen bolted for the Braves.
That said, barring an unusual amount of injuries — of which the Dodgers suffered a ton last year — and/or complete collapse of the bullpen, all signals point to Los Angeles reaching 100 wins again. And should injuries pile up or weaknesses arise, we know this much: Dodgers ownership will do whatever it takes to shore up the roster in hopes of another deep October run.
San Diego Padres Season Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 79-83 (3rd)
2022 win total projection: 87.5
Key additions: C/OF Jorge Alfaro, OF/INF Matt Beaty, RP Luis Garcia, SP Nick Martinez, OF Nomar Mazara, 1B Luke Voit
Key subtractions: RP Ross Detwiler, INF/OF Adam Frazier, RP Daniel Hudson, RP Keone Kela, RP Mark Melancon, OF Tommy Pham
Oddsmakers expect a bounce-back for this young Padres team, and with good reason. The talent is there; it just needs to stay on the field.
The 2021 Padres were decimated by injuries in the second half, a big reason why they limped to the finish line after a very promising start. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit San Diego in a huge way before spring training got under way: Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. fractured his wrist in the offseason.
How Tatis suffered the injury remains a bit of a mystery, but the wrist required surgery and will sideline him for as long as three months. Not surprisingly, San Diego played sub-.500 ball without their $340 million man.
Now for some good news: The Padres lured new manager Bob Melvin away from Oakland, where in nine full seasons he led four teams to at least 94 wins (plus a 2020 squad that played .600 ball in a pandemic-shortened campaign). The A’s made the playoffs in six of 10 seasons under Melvin, who had much less talent to work with than he does in San Diego (which hasn’t reached the postseason in a non-pandemic year since 2006).
One thing Melvin can’t do: change the Padres’ luck, be it in the training room or on the field. To the latter point, San Diego had an uncharacteristically low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) last season. A low BABIP can be a sign of bad hitting luck. So any adjustment to the mean could result in a much better offensive outcomes for the 2022 Padres.
The Padres have quality arms at the front of their starting rotation in right-handers Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. The back end is questionable, though. Mike Clevinger is back from Tommy John surgery, and journeyman starter Nick Martinez returns to MLB after a multi-year stint in Japan.
The Padres will rely on their bats (particularly third baseman Manny Machado’s), solid bullpen, and hopefully a bump from Melvin. If San Diego can stay healthy — and get Tatis back sooner than later — there is enough here to merit a play on Over 87.5 wins. However, a lot has to go right.
San Francisco Giants Season Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 107-55 (1st)
2022 win total projection: 84.5
Key additions: SP Matthew Boyd, SP Alex Cobb, RP/SP Jakob Junis, OF Joc Pederson, SP Carlos Rodon
Key subtractions: 3B Kris Bryant, SP Johnny Cueto, OF Alex Dickerson, SP Kevin Gausman, C Buster Posey (retired), RP Tony Watson
Many saw the Giants as a team capable of improving in 2021, given a veteran everyday lineup and adequate starting pitchers. But nobody — not even those in the San Francisco clubhouse — saw 107 wins en route to the NL West title. Clearly, bookmakers believe the 2021 Giants were a one-off fluke, as the MLB win totals market projects them for 84.5 victories this year — a whopping 22.5-game drop-off from the last year’s effort.
There are solid reasons why this team is a candidate to regress. Catcher Buster Posey’s retirement is not only a statistical hit, but his veteran clubhouse leadership will be sorely missed. Starter Kevin Gausman parlayed his tremendous 2021 season in San Francisco into a new contract with Toronto. Plus, the front office chose not to retain big-bat third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant after landing him last season in a trade-deadline deal with the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs.
Even though Posey has departed, the Giants — with mainstays like shortstop Brandon Crawford and first baseman Brandon Belt — remain a veteran team, among the oldest age-wise in MLB. It’s a club that used experienced players and extreme platoon splits in 2021 to create analytical advantages.
The addition of right-hander Carlos Rodon was a good move, boosting a starting rotation led by budding ace Logan Webb. However, it’s difficult to see a repeat from the mid-rotation guys (Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood). And assuredly the Giants will move pieces if the season doesn’t go according to plan.
Oddsmakers have this number low for a reason, and you can bet that the public — which often falls victim to recency bias — will hammer the Over. Don’t fall for it. Expect a pullback for San Francisco in 2022, and play this one Under.
Colorado Rockies Season Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 74-87 (4th)
2022 win total projection: 69.5
Key additions: 3B/OF Kris Bryant, RP Alex Colomé, OF Randal Grichuck, SS José Iglesias, SP/RP Chad Kuhl
Key subtractions: SP Jon Gray, SS Trevor Story, OF Raimel Tapia, INF/OF Chris Owings,
The Rockies’ lineup does not suffer from a lack of power bats. Hitter-friendly Coors Field is a perfect fit for bombers such as newly acquired third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, first baseman C.J. Cron, and second baseman Brendan Rodgers. The issue with the Rockies, as it is most seasons, is pitching.
The departure of veteran starter Jon Gray — now with the AL West’s Texas Rangers — damages an already shaky rotation. Staff ace German Marquez is no slouch, and No. 2 starter Kyle Freeland can rack up strikeouts. But after that duo, the talent level of Colorado starting pitching plunges.
The Rockies’ season win total sits at 69.5, mostly due to the loss of Gray and star shortstop Trevor Story (now with the AL East’s Boston Red Sox). However, it should be noted that the Rockies have cleared 70 wins in every season since 2015, excluding the 2020 pandemic year. If you’re backing the Rockies, you are betting on them to do something they’ve basically done each of the last six full seasons.
Staying with the trend looks to be the way to go in the 2022 MLB win totals market. You just have to hope the pitching is only below average and not a complete disaster. Because Colorado, even without Story, will hit this year.
Arizona Diamondbacks Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 52-110 (5th)
2022 win total projection: 66.5
Key additions: SP Zach Davies, RP Keone Kela, RP Ian Kennedy, OF/1B Jordan Luplow, RP Mark Melancon
Key subtractions: OF Kole Calhoun, RP Taylor Clarke, RP Tyler Clippard
The Diamondbacks will have to improve their 2021 victory mark by 15 games to clear the 66.5 win total that SuperBook oddsmakers posted for the 2022 version of the Snakes. Arizona did not make any substantial offseason moves, as they roll with a mix of young players and veterans looking to extend their careers.
The bright spot for Arizona is outfielder/infielder Ketel Marte, a fantastic player who just signed a five-year contract extension to stay in the desert. After Marte, however, this roster is very thin. And it likely will get even thinner, since any short-contract veterans who play well will be trade bait.
Things are so bleak that it’s more likely than not that the DBacks will be out of contention by Memorial Day. Even the most pie-eyed optimist would struggle to present a realistic argument that this team will improve by more than a dozen games from 2021. In the MLB season win totals market, bet on the Snakes to slither Under the total.
