As we approach Week 8 in the NFL, several key injuries are reshaping Sunday’s slate and creating unique opportunities for player prop bets. This week, we’ll analyze the implications of these injuries on three games: Dolphins vs. Cardinals, Bears vs. Commanders, and Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
By looking at the latest injury updates, player stats, and trends, we’ll identify the top prop bets with high potential for Sunday.
NFL Week 8 Injury Report: Top Value Player Prop Targets
Sam Pasco analyses three key matchups in Week 8 and breaks down his best bets.
Game 1: Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Overview of the Game
With Tua Tagovailoa returning from concussion protocol, the Dolphins are expected to revitalize their offense against the Cardinals. The Dolphins come in with a 2-4 record, while the Cardinals, fresh off a Monday Night win, sit at 3-4. This matchup is set to be closely contested, with Miami as a slight favorite at home (-3) in a game with an over/under of 46.5 points.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities
Tagovailoa’s return is a game-changer for the Dolphins, particularly for their star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. However, data suggests we could see a conservative approach in his first game back. Recent trends show value in betting on the under for Tagovailoa’s passing touchdowns (Under 1.5 Pass TDs) and Hill’s receptions (Under 6.5). Hill has hit this under in his last five games, indicating he may not see enough targets for an over bet on receptions or yardage, especially as Tua finds his rhythm.
Game 2: Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
Overview of the Game
The Bears (4-2) face the Commanders (5-2) in Washington in a battle with playoff implications. However, the Commanders’ starting QB Jayden Daniels is a game-time decision due to a rib injury, which could give Chicago an edge. Without Daniels, Marcus Mariota would step in, making it harder for Washington to execute its high-powered offense.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities
Daniels’ absence would drastically shift Washington’s game plan, forcing them to rely more on Brian Robinson in the rushing attack. Robinson’s anytime touchdown prop (Over 0.5 Anytime TD at +110) looks attractive, especially as he’s scored in four straight games. Additionally, if
Daniels sits, Terry McLaurin may see fewer deep targets, making his receptions (Over 4.5) a safer bet, as Mariota will likely focus on shorter, high-percentage throws to move the chains.
With Chicago’s tough defense, the Bears are well-positioned to limit big passing plays, favoring lower passing totals for Washington. Betting on Zach Ertz (Over 31.5 Rec Yds) could also prove valuable as he’ll likely become a frequent short-yardage target. Ertz has hit this number in each of his last 2 games.
Game 3: Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overview of the Game
The Buccaneers and Falcons clash in a crucial NFC South matchup, both teams tied at 4-3. However, Tampa Bay will be without its top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, which forces the team to rely on its young, unproven pass catchers. Atlanta comes in with a slight edge as the Bucs scramble to adjust their offense.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities
With Evans and Godwin out, Baker Mayfield will need to lean on his secondary targets. This could translate into increased opportunities for young receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan. Palmer, stepping into the role of Tampa Bay’s primary target, offers value on receiving yards (Over 45.5) as he takes on a greater share of targets. However, betting on Mayfield’s pass completions (Over 21.5, has hit in his last seven home games) may also be worthwhile, considering he’ll have to work with a shorter-passing game plan to manage the young receivers’ limitations.
Week 8 NFL Preview
Here’s a recap of this week’s best prop bets based on injury impacts:
Dolphins vs. Cardinals
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Pass TDs
- Tyreek Hill Under 6.5 Receptions
Bears vs. Commanders
- Brian Robinson Anytime TD (Over 0.5)
- Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions
- Zach Ertz Over 31.5 Rec Yds
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
- Trey Palmer Over 45.5 Receiving Yds
- Baker Mayfield Over 21.5 Pass Completions