We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best NFL ladder bet for Week 7 Thursday Night Football.
If you’re not familiar with this kind of play, a ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
Don’t Look Down – NFL Week 7 TNF Ladder Bet
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for our best NFL ladder bet for Week 7.
Bo Nix Passing Yards Ladder
This is by far the grossest ladder I’ve posted this season, and I apologize in advance for it.
There just isn’t another way to attack this spot because of the way Sean Payton is playing his skill position players. Outside of Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams, who are relatively appropriately priced, we have no clue who is going to be running routes.
Instead of [more-or-less] guessing at who Payton is going to give snaps to this week, we’re just taking the passing offense as a whole with Nix. He’s been incredibly unimpressive this season, but I think the discourse about him is a bit wrong because of his style of play.
We constantly see that Nix can’t throw because of ridiculously bad first halves of games. He’s quietly thrown for 200+ yards in 4 of his 6 starts as a rookie, though. He’s also topped out at 246 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Nix gets arguably his best matchup of the season tonight, though. He’ll face off against the New Orleans Saints, who are allowing the fourth-most passing yards (262.2) per game this season. The Saints are also allowing the ninth-highest yards per attempt (7.5) in 2024.
I don’t factor in revenge narratives to my bets, but it’s something that some people may want to consider. Payton coached New Orleans for years before they traded him to Denver. This could potentially be a situation where he’s willing to throw the ball a bit more than usual.
Overall, that doesn’t play a factor in why I like Nix’s ladder, but it might be to you. Instead, I focus on this being an elite matchup, and we’re getting a shockingly good price on Nix’s passing yards.
What to Bet: Bo Nix passing yards 200+ through 275+
