March Madness betting has dwindled down to a quartet of teams, with NCAA Final Four odds now on the board. And this is quite familiar territory for all four schools.
In Saturday’s opening semifinal, No. 2 seed Villanova meets Kansas, the sole No. 1 seed to reach New Orleans. Then, in a Tobacco Road battle for the ages, No. 8 seed North Carolina meets No. 2 seed Duke, which is trying to send Mike Krzyzewski into retirement on the highest possible note.
Props.com breaks down each matchup, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on March Madness Final Four odds and action. Check back for updates through Saturday’s tipoffs.
NCAA Final Four Odds
| Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
| No. 2 Villanova vs No. 1 Kansas | 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday | Kansas -4.5 (-105) | 132.5 (Over -115) |
| No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 2 Duke | 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday | Duke -4.5 (-105) | 152.5 |
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 4:45 p.m. ET on April 2.
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No. 2 Villanova vs No. 1 Kansas
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Just more than an hour before tipoff, Kansas is laying 4.5 points at TwinSpires Sportsbook, up a point from the -3.5 opener. Point-spread ticket count is 3/1 and money approaching 5/1 Jayhawks. “It’s been all Kansas money. That’s our biggest liability today,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total went from 132.5 to 133 and back to 132.5, with 54% of tickets on the Under/57% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Several hours before today’s tipoff, Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM. With a couple of price variations, that’s where the number has been almost all week, after opening at Jayhawks -3.5. Kansas is getting 58% of spread tickets and 64% of spread money. The total opened at 131.5, quickly went to 132.5, dipped to 131.5 (Over -120) a couple of times this morning and is now 132.5 (Over -115). The Over is netting 57% of tickets/71% of money.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook opened Kansas a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday evening and quickly went to -4, then moved to -4.5 Monday morning. The line returned to Jayhawks -4 Wednesday evening, then to -4.5 late Thursday afternoon. At lunchtime today, Kansas again nudged down to -4, where the number sits now. Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 Jayhawks, while spread money is just beyond 2/1 Wildcats.
Interestingly, at the moment, overall handle on Villanova-Kansas is more than double that of the Carolina-Duke nightcap. Aiding that gap is a $260,000 alternate-spread bet on Villanova +6 (-130),
“We’ve taken some big bets on the Villanova-Kansas game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “I think Duke-North Carolina will end up having the bigger handle, since it’s also the late game. It just hasn’t gotten those big bets yet like Villanova-Kansas has. The money at [the current spread of] 4 has predominantly been on Kansas.
“Obviously, the next 24 hours or so is when the bulk of the action will come in. I think [the line] has a better chance of going back up than going down further, because of the [Justin] Moore injury, and just with how good Kansas looked last game. That Miami game is definitely still in people’s minds.”
As Pullen alluded to, Villanova is minus Moore, who tore an Achilles tendon in the South Region final win over Houston. And Kansas outscored Miami 47-15 in the second half of the Midwest Region final, en route to a 76-50 rout.
The total is out to 134 from a 132 opener, with tickets about 2/1 on the Under, but money 4/1 on the Over. That includes a $220,000 bet on Over 133.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With 48 hours to go before tipoff, Kansas is laying 4.5 points in DraftKing’s NCAA Final Four odds market. The Jayhawks opened -3.5 early Sunday evening, quickly moved to -4, advanced to -4.5 Monday morning, then briefly fell back to -4 Wednesday morning before returning to -4.5. Ticket count is 2/1 on Kansas, but money is almost dead even, with a slight nod to Villanova. However, on the moneyline, it’s 2/1 tickets and cash on the favored Jayhawks (-195).
The total rose from 132 to 133 by Wednesday afternoon, with the Over nabbing 55% of early tickets/81% of early cash.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: PointsBet USA pegged Kansas a 4-point chalk in its NCAA Final Four odds market, then briefly dipped to -3.5 before returning to -4 early Sunday evening. There’s now more of a tax on the Jayhawks, who are -4 (-125), with early ticket count running 3/1-plus and early money 9/1 on the favorite. The total opened at 133 flat, shuffled to various iterations of that number and is now 133 (Under -115), with tickets and money in the 2.5/1 range on the Under.
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas ended a modest two-game ATS skid by putting together a dominant second half in Sunday’s Midwest Region final against No. 10 seed Miami. The Jayhawks (32-6 SU, 19-18-1 ATS) trailed 35-29 at the break. Bill Self’s squad then body-slammed Miami with a 47-15 second half to win going away, 76-50 as a 5.5-point favorite.
The Jayhawks are riding a nine-game winning streak and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight outings. Kansas is also 10-1 SU in neutral-site games this season, though it’s a middling 6-5 ATS in those 11 contests.
Villanova (30-7 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) has been a solid Big Dance bet, going 4-0 SU and ATS to reach the Final Four. In Saturday’s South Region final, the Wildcats stuffed No. 5 seed Houston in a defensive grind of a game, winning 50-44 as a 3-point underdog.
Like Kansas, Jay Wright’s troops have won nine in a row (6-3 ATS). Villanova is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 NCAA Tourney tilts. The Wildcats are shooting for their third national title in seven years, having also won the 2016 and 2018 championships.
“From a futures perspective, we are rooting for Nova or Kansas to win it all,” SuperBook risk manager Neil Fitzroy said this evening. “Either of those teams would be an excellent result for us. We’re looking forward to what is hopefully an exciting final weekend of March Madness.”
Jay Wright became Villanova coach in 2001 and Bill Self the Kansas coach in 2003. These two have since met six times — three times in the regular season, and three in the NCAA Tourney. Wright’s squad has had its way, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, after Kansas won and covered in a 2008 Sweet 16 contest.
In fact, these two teams met in the 2018 Final Four, with ‘Nova rolling 95-79 as a 5-point fave.
Villanova’s win against Houston fell miles short of the 126.5 total, moving the Under to 6-1 this postseason for the Wildcats. Further, ‘Nova is 8-2 to the Under at neutral sites this season. The Under is also 3-1 in Kansas’ last four outings, with the rout of Miami never threatening the 146 total.
Including Villanova-Houston and Kansas-Miami, 11 of 12 games in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight stayed Under the total. And first-half Unders were 11-1 in those two rounds, as well.
Late this afternoon, The SuperBook opened Kansas as a 4-point favorite against Villanova, with a total of 131.5 on the NCAA Final Four odds board. The line quickly dipped to Kansas -3.5, while the total rose to 133. Early this evening, the Jayhawks returned to -4.
No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 2 Duke
UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET: About 90 minutes pre-tip, Duke sits as a 4-point favorite at TwinSpires, matching the opener, and the Duke Blue Devils spent time this past week at -4.5. Opinion is definitely split, with 56% of spread tickets on North Carolina and 55% of spread cash on Duke.
“Great two-way action,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. “Duke is our biggest futures liability, so we’ll be rooting for UNC.”
The total rose from 151.5 to 153, with 66% of tickets/72% of money on the Over.
“It’s a mix of public and sharp play on the Over,” Lucas said.
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Duke hasn’t moved off -4.5 all week in BetMGM’s NCAA Final Four odds market, save for a price adjustment to -105 Monday morning. The Blue Devils remain -4.5 (-105) this morning, while the Tar Heels are garnering 60% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. The total was painted to 151.5 all week before advancing to 152.5 in the past hour, though current betting splits weren’t available.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET FRIDAY: On Sunday evening, Caesars opened Duke -4.5, quickly dipped to -4, then returned to -4.5 in the NCAA Final Four odds market. The line receded to Blue Devils -4 on Monday morning and remains there now, with 53% of spread bets on Duke and 58% of spread dollars on North Carolina.
“This game just has incredible storylines,” Caesars Sports assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “You have the Coach K factor, then two rivals who have never played in the NCAA Tournament before, let alone a Final Four. When they played first [this season] at Carolina and Duke handled them pretty easily, that was a different Carolina team. That Carolina team that won at Cameron [on March 5] is more indicative of their true self.
“But Duke is also playing really good basketball of late. Hopefully this game lives up to the hype. The hype on this one has more than any other Final Four game in recent memory.”
With the exception of a few minutes Sunday night at 150.5, the total has been steady at 151. The Over is drawing 54% of bets, while 69% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Duke is a 4-point favorite on DraftKings’ NCAA Final Four odds board, moving and sticking at that number Monday morning, after opening -4.5 Sunday. It’s two-way point-spread action with a lean toward the Blue Devils, at 54% of early tickets and 55% of early money. And there’s a segment of bettors eschewing the spread and favoring Duke on the moneyline instead, with just shy of 2/1 tickets and cash on the Blue Devils (-190) to simply win the game.
The total is up a tick from 150.5 to 151, also on two-way play, with 56% of bets on the Under/55% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Duke hasn’t moved off -4.5 yet at PointsBet USA, though the price for that number has adjusted a few times. The Blue Devils are currently -4.5 (even), with the Tar Heels netting 54% of early bets, translating into 80% of early cash. The total opened at 151 and is now 151 (Under -120), with 56% of bets on the Under/64% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s victory tour now heads to the Big Easy, where the Big Difficult awaits in the form of hard-charging archrival North Carolina.
The Tar Heels (28-9 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) put a blunt end to the Cinderella run of March Madness No. 15 seed St. Peter’s on Sunday. North Carolina bolted to a 38-19 halftime lead and coasted to a 69-49 victory giving 8.5 points in the East Region final.
Such was the rout that The SuperBook — among other outlets — wasted no time getting a Carolina-Duke Final Four matchup on the board, posting the odds before halftime of St. Peter’s-Carolina. The Blue Devils opened -4, with a total of 149.5. The total was the first mover, with early Over cash quickly pushing the number to 150.5, then to 151. This evening, Duke action moved the Blue Devils to -4.5.
“We’re getting four huge brand names among the college hoops landscape for this Final Four,” The SuperBook’s Fitzroy said. “We expect our handle to be incredible, especially for the Duke-North Carolina semifinal. It’s wild how we’ve never seen the Tobacco Road rivalry in NCAA Tourney play.”
The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Among those 10 wins: A 94-81 shocker as an 11-point underdog at Duke on March 5 in the regular-season finale, which doubled as Krzyzewski’s final home game. That followed Duke’s 87-67 blowout victory over the Heels in Chapel Hill on Feb. 5.
Carolina has cashed in all four its Tournament games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight outings. The Tar Heels are also on a 4-0 ATS upswing as an underdog.
Meanwhile, Duke (32-6 SU, 20-16-2 ATS) found a place on the NCAA Final Four odds board by winning the West Region. In Saturday’s regional final against No. 4 seed Arkansas — which took out No. 1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 — the Blue Devils built a 12-point halftime lead en route to a 78-69 victory laying 4.5 points
Duke has cashed in its last three games, after an 0-5 ATS skid overall and an 0-6 ATS purge in NCAA Tournament play. In the last 10 clashes between these ACC rivals, North Carolina is 6-4 SU and a robust 8-2 ATS (3-1 SU/ATS last four).
The SuperBook already has a rooting interest, thanks to Duke being the worst remaining outcome for the book in the championship futures market.
“We are rooting against Duke,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.
Duke’s win vs. Arkansas fell just shy of the 148 total, but the Over is still 8-2 in the Blue Devils’ last 10 overall. Further, the Over is 7-2 in Duke’s last nine on neutral floors. North Carolina’s lockdown win over St. Peter’s fell far short of the 138.5 total. However, the Over is 11-6 in the Tar Heels’ previous 17 games overall and 4-2 in NCAA Tournament play.
In addition, the last six Carolina-Duke contests have surpassed the total. However, as noted above, the Under went 11-1 in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight rounds, as did the first-half Under.
