Well, we missed our 10x Underdog play by one Geno Smith touchdown last week, but fear not, we’re back with our Props.com 10x Underdog play of the week.
NFL Week 6 Main Slate Parlay
Let’s start with what looks to be the game of the week: The Detroit Lions visiting Dallas to take on the Cowboys.
The Lions come in as – a little surprisingly – three-point road favorites. What’s not surprising is the 52-point total.
Then there’s this: Detroit wants to run the ball, and the Cowboys rush defense is getting gashed to the tune of 135 yards a game. The Lions two-headed backfield monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should feast.
But Dallas has done a pretty good job at limiting explosive runs; it’s the off-tackle plays up front they’ve had trouble defending, giving up runs of three yards or more 64.7% of the time per Fantasy Points Data, which is the worst in the NFL.
As such, there’s our first play: Montgomery higher than 57.5 yards.
On the other side of the field, Dallas wants to pass, and the Lions pass defense has been … less than stellar, giving up some 258 yards per game via the air.
They’ve also been smoked by slot receivers. Chris Godwin tagged them for a 7-117-1 line in Week 2, Cooper Kupp went 14-110-1 in Week 1. Week 4 saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba go 8-51-0.
This week, CeeDee Lamb steps up into the slot – where he runs more than half his routes – and we love him for higher than 81.5 receiving yards.
Moving on to the Packers and Cardinals. Let’s add Cardinals tight end Trey McBride to the party, tagging him to go over 51.5 receiving yards. He’s gone over that number in half the games he’s played this year, but the Packers have struggled against opposing tight ends this year.
Colby Parkinson went 7-52-0 last week. In Week 4, Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver went a combined 4-25-0. In Week 3, the Titans trio of tight ends dropped a 8-67-1. Obviously, none of these players are Trey McBride. We think he’ll blow through that 51.5 number.
Lastly, we think the Carolina Panthers rush defense – they’ve been getting crushed for 144 yards per game – is just what the doctor ordered for Bijan Robinson. We love his chances to get rolling this week, and are slamming the higher button on his 67.5 yards rushing number.
The Falcons should win this one easily, and it sets up perfectly to get Robinson his first 100-yard game of the season.
NFL Week 6 Picks
David Montgomery higher than 57.5 rushing yards
CeeDee Lamb higher than 81.5 receiving yards
Trey McBride higher than 51.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson higher than 67.5 rushing yards
10X on Underdog
As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 6!