As we gear up for Week 5 in the NFL, key injuries across the league are shaping betting opportunities. Understanding the impact of these injuries can provide sharp bettors with valuable insights into how game plans and player performances might shift.
Below, we break down three matchups and highlight the best player prop betting opportunities.
NFL Week 5 Injury Report: Top Value Player Prop Targets
Before we get into the analysis, here is a more complete picture of the key injuries for the week, courtesy of PFF’s Nathan Jahnke:
Game statuses for fantasy relevant positions for Sunday
Out
RB – Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Jaylen Warren, Zamir White, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Badie, Nick Chubb, Nyheim Hines
WR – Malik Nabers, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Noah Brown
TE -…— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 4, 2024
Game 1: Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Overview:
This divisional clash features two 2-2 teams, both battling to gain momentum. The Broncos enter as 2.5-point favorites, with a low over/under of 35.5 points, signaling a likely defensive battle. The Raiders will be without star receiver Davante Adams.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
With Adams sidelined, Jakobi Meyers steps into the WR1 role for the Raiders. Meyers has already shown chemistry with Gardner Minshew and has scored in two consecutive games against the Broncos. Denver’s defense will likely key in on Meyers, but his value as an “anytime TD” prop remains appealing given his elevated role.
Another intriguing prop is Minshew’s passing TDs. Denver’s defense has struggled, particularly in pass coverage. Minshew hitting over 0.5 passing TDs seems like a safe bet in a matchup that will likely require him to throw more frequently, and over 1.5 at higher risk is appealing too.
Best Bets:
Jakobi Meyers: Over 0.5 Anytime TD
Gardner Minshew: Over 0.5 Pass TD
Game 2: Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Overview:
Both teams enter this contest at 3-1, with the Bills slightly favored. The Texans will be without Joe Mixon (ankle), thrusting Cam Akers into the starting running back role. Buffalo’s run defense has been vulnerable, allowing 5.7 yards per carry, making Akers a key player to watch.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
With Mixon out, Akers will take over as the Texans’ lead back, and he has a favorable matchup against a Bills team ranked 30th in rushing defense. Akers’ rushing yards prop (likely set around 55.5) should be a prime target given Buffalo’s struggles to contain the run.
Additionally, star Texans receiver Nico Collins has hit over 80.5 total yards in his last four games, and his receiving yards prop and combined rushing and receiving yards prop are interesting plays.
Best Bets:
Cam Akers: Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
Nico Collins: Over 80.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-117)
Game 3: New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Overview:
The Giants, sitting at 1-3, travel to Seattle to take on the 3-1 Seahawks. New York will be without rookie standout Malik Nabers (concussion), while the Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points with a total of 43.5. Seattle’s offense, led by Geno Smith, has been efficient, and the Giants’ defense will have its hands full.
Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities:
With Nabers out, Wan’Dale Robinson becomes Daniel Jones’ go-to target. Robinson has hit the over on 52.5 total yards in his last two games, and his involvement should only increase without Nabers in the lineup.
Daniel Jones’ passing yards prop (181.5) looks promising, as he’s facing a Seahawks defense that has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks. The over here is a solid pick.
Best Bets:
Wan’Dale Robinson: Over 52.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-120)
Daniel Jones: Over 181.5 Pass Yds (-113)
Week 5 Picks Overview:
- Jakobi Meyers Anytime TD (+290)
- Cam Akers Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
- Wan’Dale Robinson Over 52.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-120)
Targeting these player props, heavily influenced by injury impacts, gives bettors an edge heading into Sunday’s slate. Understanding the ripple effects of key absences can help bettors exploit favorable lines and find hidden value in the player prop market.