We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best NFL ladder bet for Week 5’s Thursday Night Football matchup.
If you’re not familiar with this kind of play, a ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
Don’t Look Down – NFL Week 5 TNF Ladder Bet
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for our best NFL ladder bet for Week 5 TNF.
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Ladder
Robinson’s an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. Through 4 games, he boasts 15 receptions for 135 yards on 16 targets. He also posted 58 receptions for 487 yards and 4 touchdowns on 83 targets across 16 healthy games as a rookie.
The majority of Robinson’s routes come from the backfield, but he’s skilled enough to line up as a receiver. On the season, he’s run 8 routes from the slot and 8 from out wide. He does have a -2.3 aDOT, and the majority of his targets (68.9%) do come from behind the line of scrimmage.
The key to this ladder isn’t necessarily Robinson, though. It’s his matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re allowing the third-most targets (7.5) and second-most receptions (6.5) and receiving yards (60.8) per game to running backs.
Tampa Bay faced off against some great pass catchers out of the backfield, but they’ve also struggled against others that you wouldn’t expect to find as much success. Here’s how running backs have performed in the air against them this season:
- Austin Ekeler – 4 receptions for 52 yards
- Brian Robinson – 3/49
- David Montgomery – 4/35
- Jahmyr Gibbs – 7/22
- Sione Vaki – 1/17
- Javonte Williams – 4/29
- Saquon Barkley – 2/32
There’s a strong case to be made that Robinson is better than all of these running backs in terms of receiving. I wouldn’t say it’s clear-cut, but it’s obvious that he’s better than many of these options.
Last season, Robinson was only healthy against Tampa Bay in one game. He posted 5 receptions for 54 yards on 7 targets in that game. Keep in mind, the Bucs weren’t nearly as bad against running backs out of the backfield in 2023.
Kirk Cousins has always been fine checking the ball down, and I’m expecting 5+ targets for Robinson tonight. He’s a back who comes with plenty of potential as a receiver, and this might be his best matchup of the season.
Where to Bet: Bijan Robinson 25+ receiving yards through 80+ receiving yards