When it comes to NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 props in the Midwest Region, everything is coming up Kansas.
The bracket has broken the Jayhawks’ way. First, the region’s No. 1 seed faces a shaky No. 4 seed in Providence. Should the Jayhawks take care of business against the Friars, they would meet the winner of No. 10 Miami (Fla.) and No. 11 Iowa State, both of which pulled off upsets to reach the Sweet 16.
Props.com breaks down four NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 props for Friday’s Midwest Region games.
Odds from FanDuel and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 24.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 props: Providence Vs Kansas
Time: 7:29 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Kansas -7.5/141.5
Kansas: Winning Margin
The prop: Kansas -10.5 (alternate spread)
The odds: +148
Do you remember the first round of the NCAA Tournament? South Dakota State was a popular upset pick, dropping to as little as a 2-point underdog despite being a No. 13 seed against No. 4 Providence.
The Friars were overrated, analytics experts said. They ranked 49th out of the 68 teams in the field, according to popular analytics site KenPom.com. So what did Providence do? It easily took care of business against South Dakota State, rolling 66-57. Then 48 hours later, the Friars crushed Richmond 79-51 laying just 3.5 points, as the 12th-seeded Spiders were a popular second-round upset pick.
Here’s what the betting community missed: Providence is overrated. The Friars were just fortunate to draw two opening-weekend opponents that were ranked far lower by KenPom (South Dakota State at 81, Richmond at 86). So covering short numbers against inferior teams shouldn’t have been a surprise.
Kansas is another obstacle entirely. The Jayhawks (ranked sixth by KenPom before the NCAA Tournament started) are much better than Providence. They tied for the regular season title and won the tournament championship in the nation’s best conference this season (Big 12). More importantly, Kansas has advantages in almost every area, and that should show up Friday.
This is the spot where Providence’s deficiencies will pay off. Kansas is favored by 7.5 points, and it won’t take much to post a double-digit win. Take the nice +148 price on the Jayhawks to win by 11 or more.
Kansas Jayhawks: G Remy Martin
The prop: 10.5 points
The odds: Over -120/Under -106
Don’t look at the season-long numbers when evaluating Kansas guard Remy Martin. The graduate transfer and former all-Pac-12 performer from Arizona State had limited playing time for much of the season while battling injuries.
But Martin seems to be healthy at just the right time for the Jayhawks. His playing time has ramped up over the past four games, including scoring 20 points in 29 minutes in a second-round victory over Creighton. He scored 10, 12 and 15 points in the previous three games, gradually becoming a larger part of the Kansas offense each time out.
Martin’s prop total of 10.5 does not fully reflect his resurgence. Take the Over.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 props: Iowa State Vs Miami
Time: 9:59 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Miami -2.5/133
Iowa State Cyclones: F Aljaz Kunc
The prop: 5.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -113/Under -115
Miami is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, ranking 319th in rebound margin coming into the NCAA Tournament.
The Hurricanes have been outrebounded in all nine games they have played against NCAA Tournament teams this season — and by a bunch (average differential of 9.89 boards per game). That includes both Tournament victories over Auburn (47-39 rebounding edge to the Tigers) and USC (38-26).
Iowa State isn’t dominant on the glass, ranking 235th nationally in rebound margin. Still, this matchup should favor the Cyclones on the boards — which brings us to Aljaz Kunc.
Iowa State’s 6-foot-8 forward ranked second on the team in rebounds in the regular season (3.8 per game). However, he’s become a bigger presence on the boards recently, with six-plus rebounds in five of his past six games. And the lone exception was against LSU, when Kunc had four rebounds.
With a favorable matchup against a weak-rebounding opponent, Kunc should have little trouble going Over this prop number Friday.
Miami Hurricanes: G Charlie Moore
The prop: 1.5 3-pointers
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Iowa State pulled out two low-scoring upsets of No. 6 seed LSU and No. 3 seed Wisconsin in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The Cyclones are a great defensive team, and that extends to the 3-point line, as they rank ninth nationally in 3-point percentage defense.
Miami guard Charlie Moore has made more than one 3-pointer in only two of his past seven games (though he did go 2-for-3 from distance in Sunday’s upset win over No. 2 seed Auburn). Now he’s going up against a team that defends the 3 well in what should be a grinding game with limited possessions. (To that point: Iowa State-Miami has the lowest Over/Under of any Sweet 16 game.)
Betting against 3-pointers isn’t fun, and it only takes two quick shots to derail this wager. But let’s bank on Moore — who averages 1.7 made triples on 4.4 attempts this season — to sink one or none from behind the arc Friday.