We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best CFB ladder bet for Week 1’s Thursday slate. If you’re not familiar with this kind of bet, don’t worry, we’ll break it down.
A ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive in to all the rationale for this best CFB ladder bet for Week 1.
J.J. Jones Receiving Yards Ladder
Jones will take over as the North Carolina Tar Heels’ top receiving option with Devontez Walker leaving for the NFL. We somewhat know what this will look like, as Jones was the de facto WR1 with Walker suspended for the first four games of the season in 2023.
Jones played a total of 5 games without Walker and 8 games with him. Here’s how he looked in each split:
- w/o Walker: 69.8 yards per game, 14.5 yards per target, and 2.15 yards per route run
- w/ Walker: 45.3 yards per game, 9.1 yards per target, and 1.24 yards per route run
Jones was drastically better without Walker on the field. His numbers would look even better if we took away the South Carolina game, where he only played 25 snaps. Excluding that game, he posted 90+ yards in 2 of his 4 games without Walker in 2023.
I believe these odds are more indicative of the question marks surrounding the quarterback position for UNC rather than Jones and his talent.
Max Johnson is expected to draw the start, and he’s seen mixed results for multiple teams throughout his collegiate career. If Johnson can’t get the job done, Conner Harrell is waiting to take over for him. Overall, Johnson is the quarterback we want for this bet, as Harrell is more of a scrambler.
One of the biggest keys for this bet is Phil Steele’s projections for North Carolina. They are going to rely heavily on their run game with Omarion Hampton, but Steele is projecting them to average 280 passing yards per game in 2024. If that’s the case, Jones doesn’t need a massive share of the yards to beat these numbers.
I wouldn’t say I love the matchup against Minnesota, but I’m also not scared off by it. It’s also important to note that Jones flashed a connection with Johnson during Spring practices, and he should see plenty of opportunities in this game.
Where to Bet: J.J. Jones ladder from 44+ receiving yards (-120) through 90+ receiving yards (+650) | DraftKings Sportsbook
NCAA Football Prop Betting Tips
Even though betting on NCAA football props isn’t extremely difficult to do, it still isn’t one of the easiest betting types to cash in. There are some NCAA football prop betting tips that can help you be more successful, and three of those are outlined and discussed below.
Check For Injuries
One of the first things you will want to look at is the injury report. You want to look for players that might be sidelined by an injury, as that could affect how the prop bet plays out. Betting sites will be looking for this information as well, and this is where you could see some movement in the NCAA football prop betting odds.
Find The Value
As discussed above, sportsbooks continue to find and offer new college football prop betting markets. Betting sites want your action, and they will entice you to make a play by adding new props to the site.
While you should always be looking for prop bets that you can win, you also need to be looking for NCAA football prop bets that have some value. This means that you should be trying to identify a prop bet that has a good chance to cash, not necessarily just browsing for the “big games” or your favorite team.
You might have to dig deep and look really hard to find the most valuable NCAA football prop bet to make, but there will be some that are available to you. If you don’t think that a bet is valuable enough to make, then you simply need to wait for the next weekend and make a wager at that time.
