The NCAA South Region Sweet 16 involves three top teams – Arizona, Villanova, and Houston – along with Michigan, a team that reached the Elite Eight last season and appears to be peaking at the right time.
As the number of games falls deeper into the NCAA Tournament, props become more attractive for bettors who like to have action on multiple fronts.
Props.com breaks down four available NCAA Tournament prop bets for Thursday’s South Region Sweet 16 games: No. 1 seed Arizona vs. No. 5 Houston, and No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 11 Michigan.
Odds via DraftKings as of 1:45 p.m. ET on March 24.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Arizona Vs Houston
Time: 9:59 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Arizona -1.5/146.5
Houston Cougars: Team Total
The prop: Houston 73.5 total points
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
Arizona vs. Houston will be a battle of pace. The Wildcats rank fifth nationally in tempo, according to KenPom.com, while the Cougars are 334th out of 358 Division I teams.
Houston has consistently won the pace game in the NCAA Tournament. In the Cougars’ four straight NCAA trips under coach Kelvin Sampson, they are 9-3 SU despite cracking 70 points only four times – and three of those were as heavy favorites in first-round games against overmatched opponents.
Beyond the opening round, Houston scored more than 70 points only in a 74-59 second-round victory over No. 11 seed Ohio State in 2019.
Last season, Houston reached the Final Four by scoring 63, 62, and 67 points in the second round through the Elite Eight, respectively, then scored 59 in a loss to Baylor in the national semifinals.
Arizona likes to press the pace, but that could change in a high-stakes, tight battle with an Elite Eight berth on the line. Take the Under on this prop.
Arizona Wildcats: F Christian Koloko
The prop: 12.5 points
The odds: Over -140/Under +105
The Arizona center went off for 28 points in the Wildcats’ 85-80 overtime win against TCU in the second round, but he could find much tougher sledding against Houston.
Besides TCU, Arizona has played eight games this season against teams ranked in the top 30 defensively by KenPom – three against UCLA, two against Arizona State, and one against Illinois, Tennessee and Washington State. In those games, Koloko has averaged 8.25 points, with a high output of 13 against UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament final.
In other words, Koloko’s outburst against TCU screams “outlier”.
As mentioned above, Houston will also be looking to slow this game down and limit possessions.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Villanova Vs Michigan
Time: 7:29 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Villanova -5/135.5
Villanova Wildcats: Alternate Spread
The prop: Villanova -10.5 (alternate spread)
The odds: +215
Michigan has salvaged a disappointing season by fighting into the Sweet 16, but the Wolverines are consensus 5-point underdogs against Villanova on Thursday. Clearly, oddsmakers expect them to lose.
Well, when Michigan loses, it’s usually not close. The Wolverines have lost 14 games this season, and nine were by 10 points or more. Two others were eight-point defeats.
Also, Villanova is No. 1 in the country in free-throw percentage. Which means the Wildcats are the right team to turn a six-point lead with a minute left into a 12-point victory by the time all the fouling and free throws are done.
The Wildcats have alternate spreads available at DraftKings, ranging from -6 (+105) to -10.5 (+215).
Villanova Wildcats: G Caleb Daniels
The prop: 1.5 made 3-pointers
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Villanova guard Caleb Daniels made only one 3-pointer in the Wildcats’ second-round victory over Ohio State, but that has not been the norm. For the season, Daniels has made two or more 3-pointers in 17 of his 32 games. In the other 15, he drained one triple nine times and zero in the other six — though three of those bagels were in the first three games of the season.
More recently, Daniels has made two or more 3-pointers in six of his past nine contests, including three in Villanova’s first-round win over Delaware. The last time Daniels was held without a 3 was Feb. 5 against Connecticut.