The San Francisco 49ers weren’t just the class of the NFC West last season, winning the division by two games with a 12-5 record. They also had the No. 1 seed in the NFC, won the NFC Championship, and pushed the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink of defeat before losing in overtime.
The Los Angeles Rams also reached the playoffs, and the Seattle Seahawks had a winning record (9-8). The Arizona Cardinals were 4-13, but they were plucky and added talent in the offseason. The NFC West is talented and won’t roll over for the 49ers. Nevertheless, the 49ers are justifiably the betting favorites to win the division. Let’s look at the NFC West and determine the best bet in the division. As a spoiler alert, the most enticing bet is a swerve from the suggestions in other divisions.
NFC West Division Odds
- 49ers – -195
- Rams – +330
- Seahawks – +700
- Cardinals – +1300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 13.
San Francisco 49ers Odds to Win NFC West: (-195)
The 49ers have won the division in consecutive seasons. According to Pro-Football-Reference, San Francisco’s +193 point differential was the third-best in the NFL and the second-best in the NFC, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys (+194). While Dallas piled up their sizable point differential by feasting on cupcakes and rolled over against anyone with a pulse, the 49ers were genuinely dominant.
Per FTN Fantasy, San Francisco was second in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), first in offense DVOA, fourth in defense DVOA, and 25th in special teams DVOA. Many of the critical pieces are back.
However, the defensive line will be drastically overhauled after the offseason departures of Arik Armstead, Chase Young, Javon Kinlaw, Sebastian Joseph, Clelin Ferrell, and Randy Gregory. Obviously, they weren’t all top-shelf contributors. Regardless, it’s a massive turnover. Fortunately, the defense will get Talanoa Hufanga back in the secondary from a season-ending injury, and Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, and others provide the defense with the talent to remain above-average to exceptional. Moreover, the offense is still star-studded and can carry the load if the defense takes a step back.
San Francisco is rightfully priced as the favorite, but there’s not much value in tying up betting funds on such a chalky line. Gamers would be better served to wait in case the 49ers stumble out of the blocks, and the line becomes more appealing to bet.
- Derrick Henry Over 999.5 Rushing Yards? Check out that and Josh’s two other favorite NFL Season-Long Player Picks this year.
Los Angeles Rams Odds to Win NFC West: (+330)
The Rams exceeded last year’s expectations, thanks largely to knocking their 2023 NFL Draft class out of the park. Puka Nacua had a historically good rookie season. Yet, he wasn’t alone as a meaningful contributor. Steve Avila, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young were also outstanding. In addition, Matthew Stafford turned back the clock.
The Rams had a +27 point differential. They were 17th in total DVOA, seventh in offense DVOA, 22nd in defense DVOA, and 32nd in special teams DVOA. Sadly, the defense must overcome Aaron Donald’s retirement. For their part, the Rams drafted college teammates Jared Verse and Brandon Fiske to fortify the defensive line. They also signed Kamren Curl and Tre’ Davious White to add veteran starters in the back end.
Still, if the Rams want to make noise, Stafford and Co. will likely have to handle the heavy lifting, and a healthier season from Cooper Kupp would help them immensely. I don’t like their chances to overtake the 49ers for the NFC West crown, but +100 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to make the postseason are enticing.
Seattle Seahawks Odds to Win NFC West: (+700)
The Seattle Seahawks were a pleasant surprise in 2022, going 9-8 and reaching the postseason. That season, Geno Smith won the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award. Unfortunately, Smith took a step back, and instead of ascending, the Seahawks missed the playoffs in 2023 with a 9-8 record, matching their record from the prior season.
Despite the underwhelming season, the Seahawks added a cornerstone player in last year’s NFL Draft, hitting a home run with cornerback Devon Witherspoon in the first round. The Seahawks have intriguing players on both sides of the ball, and a new coaching staff will look to coax the most out of them.
Mike Macdonald was the mastermind behind the elite defense the Baltimore Ravens trotted out in 2022 and 2023, and he was the defensive coordinator for the Michigan Wolverines in 2021. He’s a first-time head coach, so it remains to be seen how he’ll fare in that role. Nevertheless, Macdonald has former head coach and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier on his staff as an assistant, possibly easing his transition to head coach. Ryan Grubb is the club’s offensive coordinator after shining in that capacity in college. Yet, like Macdonald, Grubb is an unproven NFL commodity in his new job.
If the overhauled coaching staff hits the ground running, the Seahawks could challenge for a wild card spot. Their +180 odds of reaching the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook were nearly sufficient to make it the best bet in the NFC West, but a more unique wager edged it out.
Arizona Cardinals Odds to Win NFC West: (+1300)
Many pundits and football fans made the mistake of judging Jonathan Gannon as a soon-to-be trainwreck head coach last season after his “fire in the gut” statement to his new players. Gannon got the last laugh when the Arizona Cardinals outplayed the caliber of their roster and sprung a few upsets. He got the most out of the Red Birds last season.
Unfortunately, they have a steep climb to contend for the NFC West. Arizona’s -125-point point differential was the fourth-worst mark in the NFC. The Cardinals were also 29th in total DVOA, 21st in offense DVOA, and 32nd in defense DVOA. They can build on last year’s work but aren’t a serious contender for the division title.
NFC West Predictions & Best Bet
Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. – Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards (+175)
Marvin Harrison Jr. was the first wide receiver picked in this year’s NFL Draft class. Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze were also picked in the top 10. MHJ should have the best quarterback of the three, as Kyler Murray is unquestionably better than Daniel Jones, and Caleb Williams is only a rookie. Moreover, while Nabers likely has less significant target competition than MHJ, Odunze must compete for targets with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Chicago’s ancillary pass-catching weapons.
Trey McBride had a breakout sophomore season and could rival Harrison Jr. for Arizona’s top pass-catcher honors, but Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Zay Jones aren’t imposing target competition. Arizona’s defense will also likely be below average again this year, enhancing the likelihood the Cardinals will have to air it out often in negative game scripts. Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette were also first-round picks, but none had the same prospect pedigree as MHJ.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Harrison Jr. had over 1,200 receiving yards in each of his final two collegiate campaigns. In his college career, he had 2.98 Y/RR and was targeted on 28.3% of his routes. MHJ should hit the ground running.
Best Bet: Marvin Harrison Jr. Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards | +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
