Super Bowl Odds 2022: Tickets, Money Lean Toward Bengals Vs Rams

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires moved the Rams up to -4.5 this afternoon, up from the -4 line of this morning. The line opened Los Angeles -3.5 back on Jan. 30 and actually got to -4.5 in fairly short order, then returned to -4. Although L.A. is up to -4.5 today, Cincinnati is taking 55% of bets and 66% of money on the spread.

“The best-case scenario for us is the Rams by 1-3 points. I don’t see that changing before kickoff,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: With less than five hours until kickoff, DraftKings has the Rams -4 (-115), after opening Jan. 30 at -4 (-105). Since then, Los Angeles has toggled between -4 and -4.5 several times, with the last trip to -4.5 (even) lasting all of about one minute Saturday. The Bengals are taking 56% of spread bets and 52% of spread money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: With one more sleep until Super Bowl Sunday, The SuperBook decided to offer a little special to spread bettors: -105 juice on both sides up until kickoff. So it is that the Rams are -4 (-105) tonight, after opening -3.5, spending much of the past two weeks at -4.5, then dipping to -4 Thursday. Even the largest Super Bowl 56 wager so far isn’t moving the number.

“Friday, we had a guy but Bengals +4 for $380,000. But we stayed at 4,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “There’s no need to do anything drastic. There’s plenty of time until kickoff. But we’re definitely Rams fans right now.”

Murray admitted he’s surprised that Bengals are attracting 65% of spread tickets, and the spread money is running even larger than that on the underdog.

“All the six-figure wagers are on the Bengals,” Murray said. “Right now, we want the Rams to win and cover, and the Under. If the Rams won this game 23-10, we’d do awesome. It’s unusual to be rooting for the favorite to win and cover in the Super Bowl. It happens, but not very often.

“But most of the money hasn’t arrived yet. It’s coming tonight and Sunday.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: Caesars goeth to -3.5, and Caesars returneth to -4.

Caesars Sportsbook shook things up very early Thursday morning by dropping the Rams from -4 to -3.5 (see below). Late this morning, though, Caesars returned to Rams -4. The book has spent much of the past two weeks toggling between L.A. -4 and -4.5, after opening -3.5.

But the roughly 36 hours that Caesars spent at -3.5 did generate some of the desired Rams play. On Thursday, Cincinnati was netting 64% of tickets on the spread; that’s now down to 59%. And on Thursday, 56% of spread money was on Los Angeles; that’s now up to 63%.

Caesars also noted that two Rams bettors — both in Nevada — have more than $1 million each tied to Rams spread bets. That said, Caesars also took a second massive “Mattress Mack” Bengals moneyline bet. More on that below in the Super Bowl Moneyline section.

Also worth noting when it comes to the Super Bowl 56 point spread: As of tonight, the Rams have gone from a consensus -4.5 at most sportsbooks to -4 across the board.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: In the very wee hours today — around 1:30 a.m. ET — Caesars Sportsbook put itself out there as the only legal U.S. book offering Rams -3.5. The move from -4 to -3.5 followed 10 days of toggling between -4 and -4.5, after opening Los Angeles -3.5. Tonight, Caesars remains at Rams -3.5, with 64% of tickets on Cincinnati and 56% of cash on Los Angeles.

But the 3.5 might not last too long, according to Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow.

“We are testing the appetite of Rams bettors. Why bet them elsewhere?” Mucklow asked.

Last week, Caesars took a $4.5 million bet from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale on Bengals moneyline +170. So perhaps the book is looking to manage that position by inviting Rams spread money. Or perhaps not.

“We want Rams money today. Tomorrow, we may want Bengals,” Mucklow said. “It’s about giving the public a choice and value.”

This afternoon at The SuperBook, the Rams dipped to -4, after sitting at -4.5 since Jan. 31.

“Some big bets came in [Wednesday] and today on the Bengals +4.5, and we felt the time was right to move down,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.

UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 9: Inside 96 hours from kickoff, PointsBet USA has Los Angeles a 4-point favorite on its Super Bowl odds board, having just dropped to that number from -4.5 in the past few minutes. The Rams opened -4 on Jan. 30, nudged to various versions of -4.5 a few times last week, then on Sunday night briefly went to -3.5 (-115).

PointsBet bettors apparently jumped on that during a 25-minute stretch, after which the line went to -4 (-115) on its way back to -4.5 (-105) early Monday. L.A. is now -4 (-115).

“The Bengals continue to [hold] a slight edge in both tickets and handle, despite going back to +4,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. “Currently, 57% of bets and 54% of handle are on the Bengals in the spread market.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: The Rams went from -3.5 to -4.5 in fairly short order early last week at TwinSpires, and earlier today, the line was at -4. It’s now back up to Los Angeles -4.5, though Cincinnati is seeing 52% of spread tickets and 57% of spread money. “We’re Rams fans as of today,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: WynnBet remains painted to Rams -4 in the Super Bowl odds market, with only a couple very minor price adjustments since first posting that number on Jan. 30. As of tonight, Los Angeles is -4 (-112), while taking 53% of spread bets and 65% of spread money. So WynnBet’s position remains the same, as well: It is rooting for a Rams win/Bengals cover.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 5: Los Angeles landed on WynnBet’s Super Bowl odds board as a 4-point favorite, and the number hasn’t budged at all, not even on the price. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, but the Rams are taking 61% of spread money. WynnBet said its need at this point is a Rams win and a Bengals cover, which also lines up with its Super Bowl moneyline/futures position (see below).

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: PointsBet USA opened the Rams as a 4-point chalk and moved to -4.5 multiple times during the first of two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. The most recent move to -4.5 came this morning, but tonight, the line dipped back to Rams -4 (-115). It’s two-way action on the spread with a lean toward the Bengals, who are taking 57% of tickets and 52% of money.

UPDATE 1:30  P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: Los Angeles landed on DraftKings’ Super Bowl odds board as a 4-point favorite Sunday night, but with a modest juice reduction, priced at -105. Early Monday morning, the Rams moved to -4.5 (-105), then a few hours later went to -4 flat. Monday evening brought another rise to -4.5, and L.A. is now at -4.5 (-105) once again. However, contrary to the upward move, Cincinnati is taking the bulk of tickets and money, at 67% and 55%, respectively.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: Caesars Sportsbook opened the Rams -3.5 and didn’t stay there for long Sunday night before moving to -4. By lunchtime today, Los Angeles was up to -4.5, in part due to some hefty early wagers. Caesars didn’t release betting splits today, but the Rams have already drawn a $522,500 bet at -4 and a $105,000 bet at -4 (-105). After moving L.A. to -4.5, Caesars attracted a $110,000 bet on Cincinnati +4.5.

L.A. is technically the road team in the Super Bowl, but is playing on its home field at SoFi Stadium. However, Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen isn’t putting a whole lot of stock in that perceived advantage.

“The Rams may be more comfortable with their surroundings, but I don’t think [home field] means that much at all to the spread,” Pullen said. “Other people might disagree and think it’s worth a little. Maybe that’s the reason why the spread has gone up. It was 50/50 for Rams and 49ers fans yesterday, and [the] Super Bowl is corporate. It’s not like it’s your average fan that’ll be in a lot of the seats.”

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: Cincinnati is the big surprise as one of the final two teams on the Super Bowl 56 odds board. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has the Bengals (13-7 SU and ATS) on the brink of their first championship. And Cincy did it the hard way, narrowly winning all three of its playoff games (the last two on the road) to land a spot at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13.

Cincinnati entered Sunday’s AFC Championship Game as a 7-point road underdog against No. 2 seed and two-time defending conference champ Kansas City. Then Burrow and Co. fell into a 21-3 first-half hole. But the Bengals rallied to take a 24-21 lead before the Chiefs forced overtime on a final-seconds field goal.

K.C. won the coin toss and took the ball, but Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on third-and-long. The Bengals subsequently drove their way to a 31-yard field goal to win 27-24. All three of Cincinnati’s postseason wins came down to the final play: a defensive stop at the goal line against the Raiders on Super Wild Card Weekend; a 52-yard field goal as time expired at the Titans in the divisional round; and Sunday’s OT triumph in Kansas City.

The Bengals enter the Super Bowl for the third time in franchise history — and first time since the 1988 season — having cashed in seven consecutive games, while going 6-1 SU.

In the NFC Championship Game, Los Angeles rallied from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit to notch a 20-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. However, L.A. came up just short as a 3.5-point home chalk. The Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) went ahead on a field goal with 1:46 remaining, then picked off Jimmy Garoppolo with less than a minute to play to seal the win.

The Rams are making their fifth Super Bowl appearance, including the second in the last four years.

“We saw one book open at Rams -5. We thought that was a little high. We’re gonna stay at -3.5 for now and see what happens,” Murray said minutes after the NFC Championship Game ended and The SuperBook posted its Super Bowl 56 odds.

What happened about 15 minutes after The SuperBook posted its opening number: The Rams moved to -4.

“We had board-cleaner players laying 3.5, because the market was higher, so we went with it,” Murray said of players looking to scoop up a perceived advantageous number. “We did take some big bets from house players on Bengals +4, but we are holding there for now.”

The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games away from Cincinnati, including 4-0 ATS in their last four. And although the Rams didn’t cover tonight, they are still 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine contests.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires Sportsbook has hung firm at 48.5 much of the past two weeks, after opening the total at 49. Ticket count is 2/1 on the Over, but money is running 2/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: DraftKings opened the total at 49.5 (Over -115) on its Super Bowl odds board two weeks ago. On Jan. 31, the total was down to 48.5, and it bottomed out at 48 on Feb. 1. The number returned to 48.5 on Feb. 2 and has fairly stable there since, with the exception of about 12 hours last weekend. The Over is netting 58% of tickets and money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: The SuperBook had one of the higher opening totals, posting 51 back on Jan. 30, but it dropped to 48.5 by the afternoon of Jan. 31. The total didn’t move again until this morning, going to 49 for about four hours, then returning to 48.5. SuperBook executive director John Murray didn’t have splits available, but assured that the book is going to need Under, which is no surprise in the Super Bowl.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: The total remained pinned at 48.5 today at Caesars Sports, with 54% of bets on the Over and 61% of money on the Under. Don’t be surprised if that stagnant line finally moves come Saturday, as business really starts to pick up with public bettors gearing up for the Big Game.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: Caesars books opened the total at 50 and, like pretty much every other shop, quickly got down to 48.5, with the number stuck there since Jan. 31. The Over is seeing 53% of tickets, while 63% of cash is on the Under. With the weekend on deck, the public will start firing on the Over, though. So don’t be surprised to see this number tick up.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: PointsBet USA dropped the total from 49.5 to 48.5 within a day, on Jan. 31, and bottomed out at 48 on Friday morning. On Friday night, the total returned to 48.5, where it held until rising to 49.5 late Tuesday afternoon. that lasted about three hours before PointsBet dialed back to 48.5.

“Significant action on the Over in the last 24 hours,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. “Handle was split 50/50 [Wednesday], and now, 60% of handle is on the Over. Tickets are at 57% on the Over.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: The total nudged down a half-point early last week, from 49 to 48.5, and it hasn’t moved since at TwinSpires. The Over is attracting 69% of tickets thus far, but 63% of cash is on the Under. “It’s Pros vs. Joes on the total,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said, noting sharp play on the Under.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: It’s been six days since any movement at WynnBet, where the total opened at 49.5, dipped to 48.5 by Tuesday evening and stuck there. The Over is netting 56% of tickets, while the Under is seeing 67% of money.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 5: WynnBet’s opening total of 49.5 lasted about 12 hours, falling to 49 Monday morning. On Tuesday evening, the total dropped another notch to 48.5, where it’s been stuck ever since. The Over is seeing 55% of tickets, while 67% of money is on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: After opening at 49.5, PointsBet USA lowered the total to 48.5 Monday and stuck there all week. Then this morning, the total took another dip down to 48 (Over -115) before returning to 48.5 tonight. Much like the Super Bowl spread, the total is seeing two-way play: 52% of bets on the Over, 58% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: DraftKings opened the Super Bowl total at 49.5 (Over -115), went to 49 Monday morning, then to 48.5 Monday afternoon. The Over/Under remains at 48.5 today, with 55% of tickets and money on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: The total is already down 1.5 points at Caesars books, opening at 50, dipping to 49 by midmorning  today, then to 48.5 late this afternoon. Caesars hasn’t yet released betting splits, but 48.5 is the consensus total, with several books currently offering that number.

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: The SuperBook opened the total for Super Bowl 56 at 51 and almost immediately dipped to 50.5, then to 50 a few minutes later. Both the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game totals stayed Under, with the numbers closing at 54.5 in the AFC and 45.5 in the AFC.

“We moved the total down to get in line with the market,” Murray said.

Los Angeles will play the Super Bowl on its home field, where the Under is 6-1 in the Rams’ last seven outings. The Under is also 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 away from Cincy.

Additionally, after five of the six Super Wild Card Weekend games went Over the total, four of the last six playoff contests have stayed low.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires opened the moneyline at Los Angeles -180/Cincinnati +150 and spent much of the past week at Rams -200/Bengals +165. This afternoon, the moneyline rose to Rams -210/Bengals +170. Similar to the spread, Cincinnati is taking 57% of tickets and 67% of money.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: DraftKings’ Super Bowl moneyline market opened at Rams -190/Bengals +160 and peaked Feb. 4 at Rams -210/Bengals +175. Later that same day, the moneyline hit its low of Rams -180/Bengals +155, and it’s currently at the opener of -190/+160. Cincinnati is attracting 63% of tickets and 64% of cash to post the outright win.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: As with the spread, The SuperBook has special moneyline pricing through Sunday’s kickoff, with a 15-cent straddle. Tonight, Los Angeles is -190 and Cincinnati +175, up from the -185/+165 opener two weeks ago, but shy of the -200/+175 high point.

“We need the Rams on the moneyline,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said, noting the book would take that, even though the futures book isn’t good to L.A. “We do really bad on the Rams in the futures, and great on the Bengals. But that won’t be factored into the way we book the game. There’s nothing we can do about that.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: While Caesars was able to acquire more Rams spread money over the last day or so, it also took another massive bet on Bengals moneyline. And again, it came from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who plowed $5 million onto Cincy +170. Last week, McIngvale put $4.5 million on the Bengals at +170.

So all told, the Houston furniture magnate — looking to hedge against a promotion he’s offering customers — has $9.5 million on Cincinnati moneyline, to win $16.2 million. Even with those millions coming in on Cincy, Los Angeles is still taking 52% of moneyline dollars, while the Bengals are getting 74% of moneyline tickets.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: As noted above, Caesars took a $4.5 million dollar moneyline play on Cincinnati +170 last week, courtesy of Houston furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. So that’s certainly helping skew moneyline splits, with the Bengals taking 77% of tickets/70% of money. Caesars opened the moneyline at Rams -185/Bengals +165 and peaked at Rams -200/Bengals +175 Jan. 31. Very early today, the price dropped substantially, from -190/+160 to -170/+150, in line with Caesars’ move to Rams -3.5 on the spread. The moneyline briefly nudged up to -180/+155 midmorning, then moved to -175/+150.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 9: PointsBet USA pegged the moneyline Rams -200/Bengals +165 at the Jan. 30 outset and has since made multiple trips to Rams -190/Bengals +160. This evening, it’s back at the opener of L.A. -200/Bengals +165. Interestingly, while other books are seeing more ‘dog action on the moneyline, the trend differs at PointsBet.

“It’s the Bengals with the slight edge in tickets, at 53%, but bigger bets have come in on the Rams, including a $240,000 bet [at -200]. Right now, handle is 72% Rams. Last Friday, it was nearly 80%,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said.

Of course, futures wagers placed early in the season on Rams and Bengals play into this market, too. Added PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn: “Our futures book would benefit from a Bengals win, as we have more action on Rams futures. Overall, though, the book will be in a good spot come Sunday, with fairly balanced action all around.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: TwinSpires opened the moneyline at Rams -180/Bengals +150, and it’s now sitting at Rams -200/Bengals +163. Cincinnati is getting 58% of moneyline bets/64% of moneyline dollars. “The Bengals are a trendy ‘dog. It’s shaping up to be a big liability for us, but a lot could change this weekend,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. “Regardless of who wins, we’re a winner in the futures market, but we’d prefer the Rams to win.”

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: The moneyline has been stable since Thursday morning at WynnBet, sitting at Rams -200/Bengals +165. Cincinnati is drawing 66% of moneyline bets and 53% of moneyline dollars. WynnBet junior trader Anthony Smock noted that at the moment, the ideal outcome is in line with the need on the spread (see above).

“We will need the Rams, both for the game’s moneyline and from a futures standpoint,” Smock said. “I feel like with that position, we are in a good spot, because the Rams match up well against the Bengals with their pass rush, and they have a good secondary. This is also [coach Sean] McVay’s second trip to the Super Bowl, which helps them, as well.”

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB 5: Los Angeles opened as a -190 moneyline favorite on WynnBet’s Super Bowl odds board, with Cincinnati +155 on the buyback. On Tuesday evening, the Rams drifted to -195, and by Thursday morning, L.A. reached -200, with Cincy +165. That’s where the moneyline remains tonight. The Bengals are netting 65% of tickets and 55% of cash.

Keep in mind that the Super Bowl moneyline is ostensibly the evolution of the championship futures market. As such, WynnBet said the Rams are the better result in the futures book, which to a degree is in line with the book’s need on the spread: A Rams win and a Bengals cover.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: The moneyline opened at Rams -200/Bengals +165 in PointsBet’s Super Bowl odds market and initially dipped to Rams -190/Bengals +160 early this week. However, on Tuesday morning, the pricing returned to L.A. -200/Cincinnati +165, and it’s been unchanged since. Cincy is seeing 54% of moneyline bets, but 79% of moneyline dollars are on Los Angeles.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: The Rams opened at -190, with the Bengals at +160 in DraftKings’ Super Bowl odds moneyline market. Early Monday, the moneyline peaked at Rams -210/Bengals +175, and late Tuesday night, it hit a low of L.A. +180/Cincy +155. The pricing is now at Los Angeles -200/Cincinnati +170, with the underdog Bengals nabbing 70% of bets/63% of dollars.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: To reiterate, the Super Bowl moneyline is basically the evolution of Super Bowl futures odds. And with the Bengals having much longer odds preseason/early season, it’s not surprising that a few flier tickets are out there, with bettors hoping to cash out big.

Cincinnati is currently +170 on the moneyline at Caesars books. But in the Super Bowl futures market, the Bengals opened +12,500 (125/1) and went to +15,000 (150/1) after a Week 2 loss to the Bears. Caesars didn’t take any significant bets at either price, but did take a $3,400 bet at +10,000 (100/1) in mid-September, which would pay out $340,000. In late October, a bettor put $13,440 on Cincy at +3,500, to win $470,400.

Conversely, L.A. had relatively short odds all season long. The most noteworthy futures bet was for $5,000 at +1,200 in late September, for a potential $60,000 win. However, on Sunday night, Caesars took a $180,000 Rams moneyline -180 bet, to potentially win $100,000.

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: At this stage, the Super Bowl futures odds market ostensibly merges into the moneyline for the Big Game. The Rams opened -185 in the Super Bowl odds moneyline market, with the Bengals a +165 underdog. There was no movement tonight.

The SuperBook has a very cut-and-dry position on Super Bowl futures/moneyline.

“That’s an easy one,” Murray said. “The Bengals are a big winner for us, and the Rams are a big loser.”

For what it’s worth: Favorites went 5-1 SU and ATS during Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2021-22 NFL playoffs. However, in the last two weeks, underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

The straight-up winner is 11-1 ATS in the postseason. The lone exception: The 49ers covering in their loss at Los Angeles.