As you ponder College Football Playoff National Championship prop bets today, think back to early December.
The biggest winners in the 2021 SEC Championship Game showdown between then-undefeated Georgia and one-loss Alabama back on Dec. 4? Not the Crimson Tide, who rolled to a 17-point victory as a 6-point underdog in Atlanta.
No, it was everyone in the college football betting market who hammered the Over on all the various props that oddsmakers offered. With 65 total points — 62 of which were scored after the first quarter — and nearly 1,000 yards of total offense, the Over cashed on virtually every game- and player-specific prop.
Are we headed for another Mid-American Conference-like track meet tonight when the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs run it back in Indianapolis (this time, for all the marbles)? Or will the 2021-22 turn into the defensive slugfest oddsmakers anticipated the first time around?
We’ll find out soon enough. But one thing we already know: Those oddsmakers aren’t about to get blindsided again, as their player and game prop numbers are higher for Round 2 of Georgia-Bama than Round 1.
Here are our top five CFP National Championship prop bets.
Odds via DraftKings and The SuperBook, and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on January 10.
Alabama Total Points Scored
The prop: 24.5
The odds: Over +100/Under -120
For most bettors, the initial instinct here is to hammer the Over — especially with even-money juice. After all, the Crimson Tide put up 41 points on Georgia’s (supposedly) impenetrable defense just five weeks ago.
Alabama followed that with a 27-point effort against a rock-solid Cincinnati defense in the College Football Playoff semifinal (and one gets the sense 27 could’ve easily been 37 had Bryce Young and Co. pressed things in the second half of a blowout). Also, the Crimson Tide scored at least 31 points in every game this season but three: Cincinnati, LSU (20-14 win), and Auburn (24-22 three-overtime win).
So why should you even hesitate to play Alabama Over 24.5 points in the CFP national championship prop bets market? Well, maybe because Georgia’s stunning defensive collapse in the SEC title tilt was a one-game aberration. Maybe Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart has figured out how to fix what went wrong (namely, allowing Young to repeatedly play catch with wide-open receivers like it was a 7-on-7 drill).
Georgia’s defense definitely was back to its dominating ways in a 34-11 blowout of Michigan in its CFP semifinal. The Bulldogs yielded a single field goal until the Wolverines scored a meaningless touchdown and 2-point conversion with 4:25 remaining in the game. And Michigan had scored 59, 42, and 42 points in its previous three contests.
Take out the Alabama game, and Georgia didn’t allow more than 17 points all season, holding eight of 12 foes to a touchdown or less. Then again … you can’t really “take out” the Alabama game, can you?
Georgia Total Points Scored
The prop: 27.5
The odds: Over -105/Under -115
When a team’s defense conjures up images of the ’85 Bears, it’s very easy for the offense’s contributions to get overlooked. Which in Georgia’s case is a shame, because the Dawgs’ offense has more than done its part this season.
Since a 10-3 snoozer of a victory over Clemson in the season opener, Georgia has averaged 41.2 points per game. Granted, a good chunk of those points were either directly generated by the defense (defensive scores) or set up by the defense (via turnovers). But they count, nonetheless.
The Bulldogs put up at least 30 points in 11 consecutive games from Sept. 11-Nov. 27. Of course, that streak ended against … Alabama. After tallying 10 points in the first 15:04 of the SEC title game, UGA managed just two TDs the rest of the way.
However, the Bulldogs bounced back big time against Michigan, putting up 34 points and 521 yards against a defense that entered the game allowing just 14.6 points and 299.2 total yards per contest. Before running up against Georgia, the Wolverines had limited nine of 12 foes to 18 points or fewer.
Then again, it must be noted that Alabama’s defense has been as overlooked as Georgia’s offense. The Crimson Tide have allowed more than 24 points just three times in 13 games. And it’s happened only once in eight contests since the team’s 41-38 loss at Texas A&M on Oct. 9 (Arkansas put up 35 on Nov. 20).
First Quarter Total Points Scored
The prop: 10.5
The odds: Over +105/Under -125
These teams combined for a whopping 41 first-half points in the SEC Championship Game. However, 38 of those points were scored in the second quarter. The only points in the opening stanza came off the foot of Georgia kicker Jack Podlesny, who made a 38-yard field goal eight minutes into the contest.
While the Bulldogs did get out of the gate quickly against Michigan with 14 first-quarter points, they were a slow-starter for most of the season’s second half. Prior to the CFP semifinals, the Dawgs scored a total of 27 first-quarter points during a seven-game stretch against FBS competition. And only one of those seven contests featured more than 10 combined first-quarter points (Georgia had a 10-7 lead at Tennessee on Nov. 13).
Alabama held a 7-3 first-quarter lead against Cincinnati in its CFP semifinal. However, in their last four games versus SEC competition — Georgia, Auburn, Arkansas, and LSU — the Crimson Tide produced a grand total of … 10 first-quarter points. All four of those contests (as well as the Cincinnati game) stayed Under 10.5 first-quarter points.
Lastly, while Alabama is putting up 42.5 points per game, it has scored more than seven first-quarter points just five times this season. And three of the five opponents were cupcakes (New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and Mercer).
Bryce Young Total Passing Touchdowns
The prop: 2.5
The odds: Over +120/Under -160
This year’s runaway Heisman Trophy winner has been incredibly efficient throwing the football, completing 68 percent of his passes while posting a mind-boggling 43-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Young has tossed multiple touchdown passes in all 13 of Alabama’s games this season. What’s more, he’s notched at least three TDs in 10 of those outings, including four of the last five.
Yeah, but I bet that one recent exception was against Georgia, right? Wrong. Young shredded the Bulldogs’ tenacious D for 421 yards and three TDs in the SEC Championship Game. He tossed another three scores in the CFP semifinal against Cincinnati.
Here’s how impressive those six touchdown throws were: Georgia and Cincinnati were ranked second and third, respectively, against the pass in 2021-22. And prior to facing Young, those teams had yielded a total of 11 TD passes combined.
So why the heavy juice to the Under with this offering among CFP national championship prop bets? The answer likely lies in the very first prop listed above: Alabama is only projected to score 24.5 points. If the Crimson Tide hang around that number, that means Young’s arm would have to account for every TD to hit the Over on this prop.
Then again, that arm has been responsible for 67 percent of Alabama’s offensive touchdowns this season (43 of 64).
Zamir White Total Rushing Yards
The prop: 46.5
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Two words best describe Georgia’s rushing attack: productive and balanced.
Five players rushed for at least 243 yards (including quarterback Stetson Bennett), and all five averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry. The best of the bunch is White, who leads the team in rushing attempts (135), rushing yards (718), and rushing touchdowns (10).
White led the Bulldogs’ ground attack against Michigan, gaining 54 yards on 12 carries (both team highs). That might not seem like a lot until you realize that prior to surrendering 190 rushing yards to Georgia, the Wolverines were yielding just 115.8 rushing yards per game.
Probably makes you wonder why the Bulldogs’ lead back has such a low rushing prop tonight. Well, wonder no more: White gained just 27 yards on seven carries against Alabama in the SEC title game.
Obviously, White’s reduced workload in that contest was primarily the result of game script, as Bennett was forced to pass his team out of a big deficit. If Georgia’s defense fixes the problems it had against the Crimson Tide the first time around, the Bulldogs likely will lean heavily on their running game.
Or at least that’s what Georgia would like to do. Might not be easy, though, as Alabama ranks fourth in the nation in rush defense (82.8 yards per game).
Finally, from the “for what it’s worth” department: White has eclipsed this prop number in just four of his last eight games after doing so in five of his first six.
