NFL Week 18 odds are of course being impacted by injury news, but also once again by COVID. And you’ve got multiple key players sitting out meaningless games, be it to stay healthy for the playoffs or start getting healthy for next season.
That’s best demonstrated by the Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns clash. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is sitting out to prep for the postseason, while Browns QB Baker Mayfield will undergo shoulder surgery.
Props.com’s NFL Week 18 Odds and Ends serves as a one-stop-shop for injury details, weather conditions, and Pros vs. Joes action. Check back regularly for injury updates, significant weather impacts, and notable contrasts between NFL Week 18 sharp bets and public money.
NFL Week 18 Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will be without running back Tony Pollard (foot), standout rookie linebacker Micah Parsons (reserve/COVID), and ball-hawking cornerback Trevon Diggs (illness) for Saturday night’s game at Philadelphia. All three were ruled out Friday. Prior to the Pollard and Parsons news becoming official, this line had made a huge move based on Philly’s situation this week (see bel0w).
The SuperBook opened at Cowboys -1.5 and leaped all the way to -7 by Monday afternoon. Dallas then backed up to -4.5 by Thursday afternoon and dipped to -4 on Friday. However, after news came down just before kickoff Saturday that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts won’t play (see below), the spread jumped back to -6. The total is up six points, from 40 to 46.
Philadelphia Eagles: Philly put a host of starters on the COVID list Monday. Further, the Eagles decided to deactivate QB Jalen Hurts prior to Saturday night’s game against the Cowboys, even though Hurts was removed from the injury report Friday. RB Miles Sanders (hand) also has been ruled out. Philadelphia is currently the seventh and final seed in the playoff, and the best the Eagles can do is move up to sixth.
The Eagles opened +1.5, stretched out to +7 Monday, shortened to +4.5 by Thursday afternoon, then fell to +4 on Friday. After Hurts was ruled out, though, the point spread leapt to +6. The total opened at 40, surged to 43 on Friday and soared again before kickoff, this time to 46.
Cincinnati Bengals: After helping his team clinch the AFC North title last week, Joe Burrow will rest up for the first-ever Super Wild Card Weekend. Running back Joe Mixon is on the COVID list, so he’ll miss Sunday’s game at Cleveland, too. And wideout Ja’Marr Chase, the favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, might sit as well. The SuperBook opened Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog, then on Monday flipped all the way to Bengals -3.
As news of who will/won’t play dripped out Tuesday and Wednesday, the line flipped again to Bengals +3 on the way to +6.5 by lunch hour Thursday. The line held at -6.5 at The SuperBook late Friday, but dropped to -4 on Saturday. Meanwhile, the total — which had tumbled from 44 to a Week 18-low of 37.5 on Thursday — was down to 37 on Friday. There was a brief dip to 36.5 Saturday, but it was back at 37 on Saturday night.
Cleveland Browns: Cleveland’s situation is also heavily contributing to the big line swing in the Bengals-Browns game. Baker Mayfield (shoulder) is out, giving way to veteran Case Keenum. Running backs Nick Chubb (chest/ribs) and Kareem Hunt (ankle) are both questionable, as are several defensive starters. The Browns opened -3 at The SuperBook, flipped to +3, flipped back to -3 on Bengals news (see above), and pushed out to -6.5 on Friday night. By Saturday night, though, the number had dipped to -4. The total is down to 37 from a 44 opener.
San Francisco 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb), who sat out Week 17 and was listed as questionable all week for a key Week 18 game at the Rams, reportedly has been cleared to start. Whoever starts at QB will have the services of running back Elijah Mitchell, who did not carry an injury designation Friday. Mitchell is expected to return to the field after a three-game absence because of a knee injury. Despite Garoppolo’s iffy status, this line has moved toward San Francisco, which opened as a 6-point dog and shortened to +4 Tuesday morning. On Wednesday, the Niners moved to +4.5 and remained until Saturday, when it shifted down to +3.5. The total is holding firm at 44.5, which was the opening number at The SuperBook.
Los Angeles Rams: L.A. expects to have RB Cam Akers in action Sunday against San Francisco. Akers suffered a torn Achilles over the summer but is now recovered, off injured reserve, and practicing. The Rams dropped from -6 to -4 early in the week at The SuperBook, then bumped up to -4.5 Wednesday. The line remained there until Saturday, when it fell another point to -3.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 44.5 all week.
Las Vegas Raiders: Running back Josh Jacobs (ribs) and tight end Darren Waller (knee) remain questionable for Sunday night’s high-stakes home game against the Chargers. Both are expected to be game-time decisions. The Raiders have been stable 3-point underdogs all week at The SuperBook. And the total actually jumped 2 points, from 47.5 to 49.5, but had dipped to 49 on Friday and remained there Saturday night.
Green Bay Packers: Green Bay already has the NFC’s No. 1 seed locked up. So although Aaron Rodgers and other starters might see action at Detroit, it might not be very much action. As it is, RB Aaron Jones (knee) is questionable. Even with all the uncertainty, this line has bounced around at The SuperBook. The Packers opened +2.5, then flipped to -3 by late Monday afternoon, and ultimately got to -4 Wednesday. On Thursday, The SuperBook had Green Bay at -3.5 and stayed there until dipping to -3 on Saturday. The total went from 42 to 44, down to 42.5, then up to 44.5, where it remained Saturday night.
Detroit Lions: QB Jared Goff (knee) has missed two straight games and officially remains questionable for Sunday’s home tilt against Green Bay. However, reports are that he likely will be back under center. Tight end Brock Wright (groin) and wideout Josh Reynolds (thigh) also remain questionable, while fullback Jason Cabinda (knee) has been ruled out. Detroit opened a 2.5-point favorite at The SuperBook, on the thinking that Green Bay (with nothing to play for) would rest its starters. That may or may not be the case, and as such, the Lions flipped to as far as +4 Wednesday. On Thursday, Detroit was +3.5 and held there until Saturday, when The SuperBook fell to +3. The total is sitting at 44.5, up from the opener of 42.
Tennessee Titans: Stud running back Derrick Henry, out the past eight games after having foot surgery, returned to practice this week. However, he was not activated from injured reserve by Saturday’s deadline and thus will not play at Houston on Sunday. Wideout Julio Jones (hamstring) was off the injury report Friday and has been cleared to play. The Titans opened at -11 at The SuperBook and were down to -10 on Friday. The total is also down a bit, from an opener of 43 to 42.5. Both the side and total were unchanged Saturday night.
Chicago Bears: QB Justin Fields, out the last two games with an ankle issue, was set to return Sunday at Minnesota. However, Fields landed on the COVID list Thursday and has been ruled out. Andy Dalton will start at quarterback for the Bears, who won’t have several defensive starters. Chicago opened +3.5 at The SuperBook and got as low as +2 early in the week, but moved out to +5.5 on Thursday’s news. The line remained there until falling to +4 on Saturday. The total is still sitting at the opening number of 44.5.
Minnesota Vikings: QB Kirk Cousins cleared COVID protocols and will play Sunday at home against Chicago. Minnesota opened -3.5 and dipped to -2.5 at The SuperBook early in the week, then jumped to -5.5. By Saturday, though, some support on the Bears drove the spread down to -4. The total is holding steady at 44.5.
Washington Football Team: Running back Antonio Gibson returned from the COVID list and was off the injury report Friday after initially being deemed questionable at the Giants due to a hip issue. However, WR Curtis Samuel (hamstring) and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones (concussion) have been ruled out. Washington moved from -6.5 to -7 Tuesday at The SuperBook, and the line remained -7 on Saturday night. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 37.
New York Giants: New York is running out of quarterbacks heading into Sunday’s season finale against Washington. Daniel Jones went on IR three weeks ago, and Mike Glennon (wrist) followed Jones this week. So second-year QB Jake Fromm will get his second start of the season. Although wideout Kadarius Toney (shoulder) has been ruled out, running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) and WR Darius Slayton (shoulder) went from questionable to off the injury report Friday. The Giants moved from +6.5 to +7 Tuesday at The SuperBook and remained there Saturday night. The total is down to 37 from a 39.5 opener.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Wideout Diontae Johnson and center Kendrick Green went on the COVID list Thursday. Green has been ruled out, but Johnson cleared protocols and will play in Sunday’s must-win game at Baltimore. Pittsburgh opened +4.5, stretched out to +6 Thursday, then tumbled to +3.5 Friday likely because of the Ravens’ big injury news (see below). The spread was still at +3.5 on Saturday night, but total has dropped all the way from 44 to 40.5.
Baltimore Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson (ankle), who missed the last three games, was ruled out Friday for this week’s AFC North tussle against Pittsburgh. That puts the ball in Tyler Huntley’s hands as the Ravens need a win and a host of other things to go in their way to clinch a wild-card berth. Baltimore has gone from -4.5 to -6 and now -3.5 at The SuperBook. The total opened at 44 and is down to 40.5.
New England Patriots: New England has a host of questionables for Sunday’s game at Miami. That list includes running back Damien Harris (hamstring) and wideout Jakobi Meyers (thigh). However, WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) has been cleared. The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites, fell as low as -5.5 early Monday and were sitting at -6 on Saturday night. The total is up a tick from 39.5 to 40.
New York Jets: Running back Michael Carter (concussion) and WR Jamison Crowder (calf) were off the injury report Friday and are expected to start Sunday at Buffalo. However, WR Braxton Berrios (quad) was placed on injured reserve Friday and fellow wideout Elijah Moore (quad/reserve-COVID) was ruled out Saturday. On the good news front, tight end Tyler Kroft was activated off the COVID list.
New York opened as a hefty 17-point underdog, moved into +16 by Wednesday, and had ticked up to +16.5 as of Friday night. The total tumbled from 45.5 to 41 by Wednesday afternoon, then to 40.5 on Friday. Although weather (see below) is part of that equation. The side and total remained at +16.5 and 40.5, respectively, on Saturday night.
Buffalo Bills: Wideout Emmanuel Sanders (knee) was downgraded from questionable to doubtful on Friday ahead of Sunday’s game against the Jets. Buffalo is the biggest chalk in Week 18, opening -17 at The SuperBook, falling to -16 Wednesday, and rebounding to -16.5 on Friday. The total is down five points, from 45.5 to 40.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Running back Ronald Jones (ankle) has been ruled out against Carolina, but wideout Mike Evans (hamstring) did not have an injury designation Friday. Tampa Bay also will be down several defensive stalwarts, including pass-rushing specialists Shaquil Barrett (knee/reserve-COVID) and Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder). On Monday, The SuperBook moved the Bucs from -9 to -8, where the line remained until Saturday, when it bounced back to -9. The total is sitting at 41.5, down from an opener of 42.
Atlanta Falcons: Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts (hamstring) is questionable Sunday against New Orleans. However, the line dropped in a hurry Sunday night at The SuperBook, from Falcons +6.5 to +4.5 in less than 15 minutes. The number was down to +3.5 on Friday night (and still there as of Saturday night), while the total has shifted from 40 (opener) to 39.5.
Seattle Seahawks: Wideout DK Metcalf (foot) was off the injury report Friday after initially being listed as questionable for Sunday’s road game at Arizona. However, Seattle’s defense is banged up. The Seahawks opened at +6.5 at The SuperBook and held there all week before dropping to +5.5 on Friday. It was still +5.5 on Saturday night, while the total has not moved off the opener of 48.
Arizona Cardinals: Running back Chase Edmonds (ribs/toe) and wideout Rondale Moore (ankle) are out for Sunday’s NFC West showdown against the Seahawks. RB James Conner (heel) remains questionable. Arizona has fallen from -6.5 to -5.5 at The SuperBook as of Saturday night. The total opened at 48 and is holding firm.
Kansas City Chiefs: Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder), who missed the Week 17 loss at Cincinnati, is out for Saturday afternoon’s game at Denver. But that’s not negatively impacting the number for the Chiefs. Kansas City opened -10.5 at The SuperBook, dipped to -9.5 early in the week, then climbed to -11.5 by Thursday afternoon. However, on Friday night, the point spread was back to the opener of -10.5. The total is up a smidge from 44.5 to 45.
Denver Broncos: QB Teddy Bridgewater, out since Week 15 due to a concussion, went on injured reserve this week. That means Drew Lock will get his third straight start under center, this time against Kansas City. Running back Melvin Gordon (thumb/hip) and tight end Noah Fant (quad) were questionable midweek for the Saturday contest. But on Thursday afternoon, neither had an injury designation. The SuperBook moved Denver from +10.5 to +9.5 to +10 early in the week, then went out to +11.5 on Thursday before dialing back to +10.5 on Friday night.
NFL Week 18 Weather
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: A late start in South Beach could bring precipitation into play for this AFC East clash, as there’s a 40 percent chance of rain at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Wind also could be an issue, with breezes of 10-15 mph at kickoff. That said, the total at The SuperBook has ticked up from 39.5 to 40.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Poor weather in Buffalo in early January? Shocking, we know. The good news: Early rain showers are expected to clear out by game time. The not-so-good news: Temperatures at game time will be in the mid-30s (and drop from there), with sustained winds of 20 mph (and potentially stronger gusts) making things even chillier. The total plunged 4.5 points at The SuperBook, going from an opener of 45.5 to 40.5 as of Saturday night.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants: The forecast has shifted a bit for this NFC East clash at The Meadowlands. There’s now a 30 percent chance of rain at kickoff, with the likelihood of precipitation increasing to 60 percent before game’s end. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s throughout, with 10-15 mph winds. The SuperBook dropped this total from 39.5 to 38 and then down to 37, where it remained Saturday evening.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: It will be soggy all day in Baltimore on Sunday, with a 90 percent chance of rain at kickoff and showers lingering the entire game. It also will be cool (upper 30s/low 40s), but winds shouldn’t be a factor (less than 10 mph). This total opened at 42 at The SuperBook, was down to 41.5 at midweek, and had dipped to 40.5 on Friday night. It was still 40.5 on Saturday night.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: As usual, it’ll be cold and breezy in Cleveland on Sunday, with game-time temperatures in mid-30s (and dropping) and gusts of 20-30 mph. That means the wind chill will be in the low 20s. While the total is down a full touchdown at The SuperBook from an opener of 44 to 37 — tied with Washington-Giants for the lowest on the NFL Week 18 odds board — the line move has less to do with the weather and more to do with multiple starters not playing (see injury section above).
Kansas City at Denver: By midweek, it was expected to be a dry, pleasant Saturday afternoon in The Mile High City. Now? Not so much. There’s now a 35 percent chance of rain throughout the game, with temperatures in the upper 30s (and heading south from there). However, winds will be light (less than 10 mph). The SuperBook opened this total at 44.5 and was up to 45 late Friday night.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: It’s expected to be clear and dry with minimal winds in Philadelphia on Saturday night. However, it will be frigid, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-20s the entire game. Despite the chilly conditions, the total at The SuperBook has jumped 3 points, from an opener of 40 to 43 as of Friday night.
NFL Week 18 Pros Vs Joes
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas said Thursday the public is on double-digit chalk Tennessee, while Houston is seeing sharp play. The Titans opened -11 and are down to -10, while taking 62% of spread bets. The Texans are drawing 57% of spread dollars.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: TwinSpires is seeing Pros vs. Joes action on the total, with sharp play on the Under, and the public of course on the Over. The total tumbled from 45.5 to 41, with 54% of tickets on the Over/76% of money on the Under.
