Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 1 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 1. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week,
Best College Football Bets: Week 1
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Colorado +20.5 (at TCU)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Colorado +20.5 | -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
TCU was a dominant team last season, covering the spread in over 70% of their games. It was one of the highest rates in the NCAA. Colorado, on the other hand, covered the spread in only 2 of their 12 games. This was the worst rate in college football?
So why are we backing Colorado in this game?
These two teams aren’t nearly the same teams as they were last season. Colorado hired Deion Sanders as their new head coach, and nearly all of their team is made up of transfers. He brought a few elite talents with him, including Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
TCU also lost a ton of offensive production. Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, Taye Barber, and Jared Wiley are all gone. They also lost 18 sacks in Dylan Horton and Dee Winters.
It’s Week 1, and this is a simple case of one team being overvalued and the other being undervalued. Colorado is drastically better than we think, and they should be able to keep this game closer than 3 touchdowns.
Iowa -23.5 (vs. Utah St.)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Iowa -23.5 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
It was easy to bet on Iowa’s unders last season. They consistently cashed because of their elite defense and terrible offense. There were points in their games where their defense was better at scoring than their offense.
I don’t expect that to be the case this season, though. Iowa is still going to boast an elite defense. I don’t believe that changes this year, and Phil Steele is projecting them to have the second-best defense in the NCAA, allowing only 14.2 points per game.
I believe the change will come on offense. Iowa struggled with abysmal quarterback play last season. They couldn’t sustain any drives or move the ball down the field. That will all change with Cade McNamara under center in 2023.
McNamara showed flashes in 2021 at Michigan before losing his job to J.J. McCarthy. It wasn’t because he’s a bad quarterback. McCarthy just boasts more upside for an elite program.
The senior quarterback is going to be a massive upgrade for Iowa’s offense, and I’m expecting them to find drastically more offensive success in 2023 than they did in 2022.
UNC vs. South Carolina Over 64.5 Points
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Over 64.5 Points | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
North Carolina was impressive during the initial part of 2022 by starting 9-1 but declined in their last four games. Drake Maye, who is eyed as a potential Heisman contender and top prospect in the NFL Draft, will attempt to get this team a notable out-of-conference win.
South Carolina had a slow start in 2022 with a 1-2 record but surged by going 7-2, with victories over ranked Tennessee and Clemson. Quarterback Spencer Rattler needed a redemption story when he was previously benched at Oklahoma. Despite early struggles, he finished impressively, throwing for over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in three out of his last four games.
Both North and South Carolina are known for their potent offenses. However, their defenses left much to be desired last season, South Carolina was 87th last year in points allowed, and North Carolina was 102nd. This has the potential to be a back-and-forth matchup, and I expect them to run the score up.
Oregon State -16.5 (at San Jose State)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Oregon State -16.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
DJ Uiagalelei is set to make his debut for Oregon State following his transfer from Clemson. Last season had its challenges; he struggled with his throwing accuracy and turnovers, yet managed to have a touchdown pass in 11 of his 13 games, with over 200 passing yards in nine games. Now, he’s on a mission to boost the Beavers’ passing offense, which ranked near the bottom in the Pac-12 in 2022.
San Jose State gave USC a run for their money last week, trailing by only seven points at halftime. However, they couldn’t match the Trojans’ offense with Caleb Williams, eventually being outscored 35-14 for the rest of the game. While the Spartans managed to score 28 against last year’s weakest defense in the Pac-12, they now go up against its strongest. Oregon State also boasts the conference’s fourth-best rushing offense and welcomes back their two leading rushers Deshaun Fenwick and Damien Martinez.
With an upgrade in the passing game and the already established run game and defense, Oregon State should coast through this game.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 0-0
- John Supowitz: 0-0