The 4 Nations Face-Off has surprised everyone. The quality of play has been exceptional, the players are fully bought in, and the games are pulling massive ratings.
That last bit is important because Thursday’s final between Team USA and Canada will produce a massive handle for sportsbooks. This will be one of the most-bet hockey games since sports betting was legalized nearly seven years ago.
Adding to the excitement is that the sportsbooks are having a tough time separating the two teams. The game opened as a pick’em and has stayed at that price across the market.
This is a coin flip.
4 Nations Face-Off Canada vs. Team USA Odds & Pick
It’s only been three games for each of these teams, but it is pretty clear what their path to victory looks like.
For Canada, they’ll want an open game with the teams trading scoring chances. The Canadians are built on speed, skill, and creativity, so a see-saw battle favors them.
Team USA will want things to be a lot tighter. The Yanks have committed to playing a structured, two-way game with sturdy defense and elite goaltending taking priority over offensive flair. The Americans were able to bottle things up against Canada, knowing that a low-event contest played into their strengths.
Thursday’s final will likely have a different feel to it. There won’t be any of the fireworks we saw right at the opening face-off, and you’d imagine both teams will try to be on their best behavior given the stakes. Keeping this game at 5-on-5 is essential for Team USA.
It is hard to argue with the bookmakers that this game is a virtual coin flip and you can make valid arguments for either side at these prices, but the biggest red flag for me is the goaltending matchup.
Connor Hellebuyck has been steady as a rock all season for the Winnipeg Jets, and that form has transferred over to this tournament. Jordan Binnington, meanwhile, has allowed a questionable goal in each of Canada’s three games so far and will be under immense pressure in this contest.
With that in mind, I’ll be backing the Americans to get the job done by multiple goals on Thursday.
A play on the puckline at +230 (FanDuel) seems a tidy price, but I wouldn’t shy away from backing some alternate numbers like -2.5 or -3.5 given that we could see whoever is behind pull the goalie with plenty of time on the clock because this is a winner-take-all contest.
The Bet: USA -1.5 (+230, FanDuel)
4 Nations Face-Off Canada vs. Team USA Props
Jack Hughes anytime goalscorer (+300, FanDuel)
Hughes has caught some criticism for a lack of production, but the New Jersey Devil is getting pucks on net. Hughes’ 10 shots on goal are tied for third-most in the tournament behind the Tkachuk brothers.
Hughes is flying under the radar a bit because he hasn’t had a huge impact, but that’s good news for value-hunters and provides us with a good buy-low opportunity.
Brandon Hagel anytime goalscorer (+600, DraftKings)
Hagel became a cultural icon in Canada for his fight on Saturday night and his press conference this week, but he’s also been an effective player for the Canadians behind the big boys. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Sidney Crosby will get all the attention, but Hagel provides the value.
The Tampa Bay Lightning star has eight shots on goal and is not afraid to get the dirty areas, which is an added bonus in what could be a very tight game.
First Goalscorer: Jaccob Slavin (+7000, FanDuel)
Let’s have a little bit of fun.
Offense is often hard to come by in these tight-checking, high-stakes games. It’s tough to find space with all the bodies clogging up the middle, meaning that it can take a greasy goal from an unexpected source to break the deadlock.
And while Slavin is known for his defensive prowess, he will log a ton of ice time and does have some offensive chops. It’s very unlikely this bet wins, but it’s a fun sweat at a massive price.
