Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase lines up for the next play.
Image Credit: Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!

Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

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  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x

It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 9.

Jakobi Meyers UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards

New England Patriot's WR Jakobi Meyers catches a pass and looks upfield.
Image Credit: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

I cashed taking Jaboki Meyers’ receiving yards under last week, and I’m going back to the well again this week. The New England Patriots are 3.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers. First, as favorites, the Patriots should be in a neutral or favorable game script this week. Thus, the stage is set for them pounding the rock. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin was tied or leading in Week 5 through Week 8, the Patriots passed at the sixth-lowest rate (49%).

Second, the Panthers are much better against the pass than the run. Football Outsiders ranks the Panthers sixth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 19th in rush defense DVOA. So, it makes sense for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to craft a run-heavy game plan.

Third, the pace projects to be conducive to under. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots rank 16th in situation neutral pace, and the Panthers check in at 21st. Finally, Meyers has fallen short of 57.5 receiving yards in four straight games and six of eight contests this year. As a result, Bet Prep supports this under as well, projecting Meyers for only 51.98 receiving yards.

Ja’Marr Chase OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards

Cincinnati wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase celebrates a big play.
Image Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

I was burned by taking Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards over last week. Nevertheless, it’s paramount to have a short memory when making fantasy picks. So, I’ll hop back on the prodigious rookie receiver’s over for receiving yards this week.

Head coach Zac Taylor eased second-year quarterback Joe Burrow back from reconstructive knee surgery through the first three weeks. Since then, he’s unleashed the passing attack. When the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Cincinnati Bengals pass at the highest rate (68%) in the last five weeks.

Further, there’s a huge discrepancy between the Cleveland Browns’ run defense and pass defense ranks, as they’re stout against the run (third-best DVOA) and giving against the pass (25th in DVOA). So, there’s no reason for the Bengals to deviate from their recent tendencies.

As for Chase, he’s balling out. According to Pro Football Focus, among players targeted at least 20 times this year, Chase ranks fifth in yards per route run (2.99 Y/RR). In addition, he ranks tied for 13th in target share (24.7%) and 12th in Intended Air Yards (806), per Sports Info Solutions. Predictably, Chase has parlayed his drool-inducing underlying statistics into a gaudy 98.3 receiving yards per game. The big-play wideout has gone over 82.5 receiving yards in half of his games, and Bet Prep projects him to do so again this week with 89.94 receiving yards.

Ezekiel Elliott OVER 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezikiel Elliott struts into the end zone on a touchdown run
Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are double-digit favorites. Further, Dak Prescott is returning from missing last week’s game with a calf injury. So, I’m expecting Dallas to lean on their rejuvenated workhorse back, Ezekiel Elliott.

There is a massive mismatch between the Denver Broncos’ run defense (27th in DVOA) and Dallas’ run-blocking ability. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys rank first in Adjusted Line Yards. Additionally, Pro Football Focus is in lockstep, grading them as the best run-blocking team this season. Running behind his mauling offensive line, Zeke’s averaged 81.6 rushing yards per game.

In addition, he’s a capable receiver with a decided edge over Tony Pollard in passing-game playing time. According to Pro Football Focus, Elliott has run 188 routes versus only 59 for Pollard. Zeke’s turned his routes into 2.9 receptions and 18.3 receiving yards per game. He’s averaging 99.9 yards from scrimmage per game. In addition, he’s surpassed 93.5 rushing plus receiving yards in five of his last six games. I think he makes it six out of his last seven after this week.

DeVante Parker OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards

DeVante Parker #11 of the Miami Dolphins in action against the Cincinnati Bengals in the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium on December 22, 2019 in Miami, Florida.
Image Credit: Mark Brown/Getty Images

DeVante Parker and Tua Tagovailoa have suited up for the same game only two times this year. In Week 1, Parker hauled in four receptions on seven targets for 81 yards. Last week, he reeled in eight receptions on 11 targets for 85 yards. Parker posted his excellent receiving yardage totals with Tagovailoa despite facing a pair of top-10 pass defenses in the Patriots (10th DVOA) in Week 1 and Buffalo Bills (first DVOA) in Week 8. This week, the sledding should be much easier against the Houston Texans (16th DVOA).

Houston’s defense is especially giving to receivers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve coughed up the sixth-most receiving yards (1,430) at an eye-popping 14.44 yards per reception to wideouts this season.

The rest of the context is favorable for Parker surpassing 58.5 receiving yards as well. In the last three weeks with Tagovailoa back from injury, Miami’s passing rate (64%) was the seventh-highest when the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. In addition, the game’s spread has shrunk to 5.5 points, with Tyrod Taylor on pace to return for the Texans this week. So, I expect him to keep the Texans close enough for Miami to keep their foot on the accelerator. Finally, Bet Prep loves this over as well, projecting Parker for 65.73 receiving yards.

Jordan Love UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards

Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers attempts a pass during the game against the New Orleans Saints at TIAA Bank Field on September 12, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Image Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Jordan Love is making his first NFL start. Last year, he learned from the sidelines, and he attempted seven passes in the Green Bay Packers’ embarrassing Week 1 loss. So I’m putting zero stock in his garbage-time statistics.

Therefore, I’m labeling his final collegiate season in 2019 as his last meaningful playing time. During that year, he was shaky. Love’s numbers cratered from his 2018 campaign, and he threw 17 interceptions and sported an underwhelming 6.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt in the Mountain West Conference, per Sports Reference. Facing the Kansas City Chiefs is a gigantic leap in competition from what he met in college.

Yes, the Chiefs rank a lowly 30th in pass defense DVOA. However, they also rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. So, I’m expecting Matt LaFleur to lean on his talented one-two running back combination of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as long as the score enables him to do so.

In addition, the Packers play at the fifth-slowest situation neutral pace this year. I highly doubt they’re going to speed their pace up for a second-year quarterback making his first start. There’s more uncertainty with this pick than the others since this is Love’s first NFL start. Nevertheless, Bet Prep supports this pick, projecting Love for only 189.40 passing yards.