Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: Divisional Round Sunday

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams looks to pass against the Tennessee Titans during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Inglewood, California.
Image Credit: Harry How/Getty Images

Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
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It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for Sunday’s Divisional Round contests.

Matthew Stafford OVER 279.5 Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams looks to throw the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Inglewood, California.
Image Credit: Joe Scarnici/Getty Images

Unfortunately, left tackle Andrew Whitworth is out this week. Nevertheless, too many positives are working in Matthew Stafford’s favor to dissuade me from his over for 279.5 passing yards.

First, the game should be played at a break-neck pace. According to Football Outsiders, the Los Angeles Rams play at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the second-fastest tempo offense. Second, Stafford is a matchup nightmare for the blitz-happy Bucs.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Buccaneers blitz at the highest rate (40.8%). Meanwhile, Stafford has destroyed defenses that blitz him. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 38 quarterbacks blitzed on at least 50 dropbacks in 2021, Stafford was PFF’s fourth-highest graded quarterback, posting the fourth-highest yards per pass attempt (9.0 YPA), eighth in passing yards (1,155), and first in completion percentage 74.4%).

Unsurprisingly, he demolished Tampa Bay in Week 3, passing for 343 yards on 38 attempts. Stafford has passed for more than 279.5 yards in 11 of 18 games. Moreover, he was razor-sharp last week, piling up 202 yards on only 17 pass attempts in a blowout win against the Arizona Cardinals. I’m optimistic the Bucs will provide more resistance than Arizona did last week, pushing Stafford to air it out more than the 17 times he did last week. Coming off of two stellar showings in his last three games, I’m convinced he’s turned the corner from a rough spell near the end of the regular season.

Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed! 

Tyler Higbee OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards

Rams tight end #89 Tyler Higbee catches a pass against the Cardinals in 2021.
Image Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Higbee was an afterthought for most of this year. However, he ascended to the second fiddle in the passing attack late in the year. As a result, Higbee eclipsed 42.5 receiving yards in the last three games and four of the last five, totaling 41 yards in the outlier contest he went under. Further, he had 40 receiving yards in the first meeting with the Bucs, securing all five of his targets, operating behind Cooper Kupp and the since injured Robert Woods.

According to Pro Football Focus, in the last five games Higbee has played in, he’s been second in routes (147), targets (30), receptions (25), and receiving yards (259). Additionally, Kendall Blanton is the only other tight end that ran routes in those games, running just 14. According to Pro-Football-Reference, tight ends averaged 50.71 receiving yards per game against the Bucs. As the only tight end getting meaningful snaps for the Rams and the second option in the passing attack, I love Higbee’s odds of going over 42.5 receiving yards.

Dawson Knox OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards

Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on October 03, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York.
Image Credit: Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills have had a rotating cast of wideouts behind Stefon Diggs when at total health. However, Dawson Knox has been a one-man show at tight end, being utilized as a receiver and rarely as a blocker. The athletic tight end is in the midst of a breakout campaign, setting a new career-high with 39.1 receiving yards per game. He’s gone over 37.5 receiving yards in precisely half of his games and half of them since returning from hand surgery.

In addition, since Week 14, he has been third on the Bills in targets (30), receiving yards (247), and second in receptions (21) and routes (228). Like Stafford and Higbee touted above, the odds of Knox going over are enhanced by a probable speedy pace. The Bills play at the ninth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Chiefs are the third-fastest offense.

The matchup isn’t bad, either. The Chiefs have allowed 52.76 receiving yards per game to tight ends, including getting trounced by Knox for 117 in Week 5. As a result, I’ll onboard Knox going over 37.5 receiving yards. Thankfully, Bet Prep agrees, projecting him for 40.48 receiving yards.