Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Player Props & Predictions – Game 1

Minnesota Timberwolves center-forward Karl-Anthony Towns (32) handles the ball as Memphis Grizzlies center Bismack Biyombo (18) defends during the first half at FedExForum.
Image Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Need a Timberwolves vs. Mavericks prediction? We’ve got what you need, as the Mavericks hit the road to face the Timberwolves on Wednesday, May 22 at 8:30 ET. The current total stands at 206.5, with the Timberwolves being favored by 4.5 at home. Keep reading to get our Timberwolves vs. Mavericks player props and predictions.

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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds

  • Spread: Timberwolves -4.5
  • Total 206.5

Game Info

  • Date: Wednesday, May 22
  • Time: 8:30 ET
  • Location: Target Center, Minneapolis MN
  • TV: TNT

Mavericks Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Dallas has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 107 points per game while allowing 101. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Timberwolves Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Across their last five home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 105 points per game.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.

Luka Doncic put up a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists as the Mavericks closed out their series vs. the Thunder with a 117-116 win. Dallas won the series 4-2 in six games and closed it out on their home floor. Derrick Jones Jr. added 22 points and four rebounds for the Mavericks.

As a team, the Mavericks hit 16 threes and shot 51.2% from the field. They also hit 47.1% of their threes. Kyrie Irving also added 22 points for the Mavericks.

The Timberwolves picked up a 98-90 win over the Nuggets to win the series in seven games. The win came on the road, and with the win, the Timberwolves took the series 4-3. The combined 188 points was 13.5 points below the over/under line of 201.5 points.

Offensively, the Timberwolves were led by Jaden McDaniels, who finished with 23 points and six rebounds. McDaniels shot 70% from the field and 75% from three. Karl-Anthony Towns also added 23 points and 12 rebounds. As a team, the Timberwolves hit 10 threes on 29.4% shooting from beyond the arc.

Can Dallas Lock in a Road Win?

Dallas has won two straight games as the underdog and is 15-20 on the season in games where they were not favored. Today, they are 4.5-point underdogs against Minnesota.

The Mavericks’ ATS record for the season is 55-39, including a 31-16 record on the road. In their last two road games, they have covered the spread.

Looking at their O/U record for the season, the Mavericks are 42-52. In their games this season, the average combined scoring is 230.5 points, and the average O/U line is 232.1.

In their last game, the Mavericks defeated the Thunder by a score of 117-116. The O/U line for that game was 208.5, giving them an O/U win. Dallas was favored by 4 points in that game.

Currently, the Mavericks are 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 11-5 against their division. On the road, the Mavericks are 29-18.

Looking at Luka Doncic’s last five games, he has averaged 25.8 points, 8.6 assists, and 11.4 rebounds. In these games, he hit 47.4% of his shots from the field and 44.7% of his threes. This season, Doncic is averaging 33.9 points per game to go along with 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points per game this year and 41.1% of his three-point attempts.

For the season, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game, which is 8th in the league. Their three-point shooting percentage is 36%, which is 14th in the NBA. Dallas is 4th in three-pointers made per game and 3rd in attempts. Overall, they are 11th in field goal percentage.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.1 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. On the road, Dallas is allowing 114.5 points per game, which is 16th in the league.

Over their last five games, opponents have scored just 103.8 points per game against the Mavericks, which is 4th in the NBA during that stretch.

So far this season, opposing teams have scored more than their season average 61.0% of the time versus Dallas. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 51.2% of the time when facing the Mavericks.

Will the Timberwolves Win at Home?

Minnesota’s current ATS win streak is at two games after covering the spread in their last two games. At home, they have a 21-25 ATS record and are favored by 4.5 points today.

In games where Minnesota has been favored, they have a record of 50-18. As the favorite, they have gone 32-35 ATS this season, with an average scoring margin of +8.7 points per game.

Out of their 82 games this season, Minnesota has been favored in 68 of them. As the favorite, they have a scoring differential of +8.7 points per game. As the favorite, they have an O/U record of 32-35.

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 48-45, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 218.1 points per game, and today’s O/U line is 206.5.

In their last game, the Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets by a score of 98-90. Minnesota was the 4.5-point underdog in that game. The win improved their overall record to 56-26, which is currently 3rd in the Western Conference.

Minnesota comes into the game as the 18th ranked scoring team, at 113 points per game. Their home scoring average of 111.5 points per contest is 24th in the league. The Timberwolves are also in the bottom half of the league in pace, averaging 97 possessions per contest.

For the season, Anthony Edwards is averaging 25.9 points per game but has been even better of late, averaging 24.8 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 44.8% from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the season and 45.6% of his shots in his last five games.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Player Props

A player prop we are looking at is Luka Doncic and his points prop of 28.5.

Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -123 while the under is at -111. With his prop at 28.5, our model suggests taking the over as we have him finishing with 31. We have him finishing with a field goal percentage of 45.5% and knocking down four threes.

  • The Prop: Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-123)

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Predictions

The Mavericks come in as the underdog at +4.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 206.5 and given that our model is projecting 225 points between the teams, we like the over.

The Pick: Mavericks +4.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook