Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild Player Props, Picks and Predictions – Thursday, Jan. 04

Nov 4, 2023; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) skates with the puck in the second period against the Ottawa Senators at the Canadian Tire Centre.
Image Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

We have your Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Tampa Bay Lightning hit the road to face the Minnesota Wild.

The Tampa Bay Lightning (18-16-5) are set to clash with the Minnesota Wild (16-16-4) in a mid-season battle at the Xcel Energy Center. With both teams looking to gain ground in their respective conference standings, this matchup promises to be a fierce contest between two evenly matched squads.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild Odds Info

Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning -128 (FanDuel) / Minnesota Wild +115 (BetRivers)

Puck Line: +1.5 – Tampa Bay Lightning +185 (Bet365) / Minnesota Wild -225 (Bet365)

Total: 6.0 – -105 (DraftKings) / -115 (DraftKings)

Game Info

Date: Thursday, Jan. 04

Time: 08:00 PM

Location: Xcel Energy Center – St Paul, MN

TV: ESPN+

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends

  • On the road this season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have 7 wins and 13 losses.
  • As the favorite this season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 10 losses.
  • This season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have hit 19 overs and 20 unders.

Minnesota Wild Betting Trends

  • At home this season, the Minnesota Wild have 10 wins and 8 losses.
  • As the underdog this season, the Minnesota Wild have 4 wins and 14 losses.
  • This season, the Minnesota Wild have hit 20 overs and 16 unders.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the last three seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Minnesota Wild have faced off four times, with each team securing two victories. These encounters have taken place between November 2021 and January 2023. In all four matchups, the home team emerged victorious, indicating a strong home-ice advantage. When it comes to betting statistics, the Minnesota Wild have proven to be more reliable against the spread, covering it in three out of the four games, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the spread only once. The total score has exceeded the over-under line twice, fallen below once, and pushed on one occasion. Other notable statistics from these games include the fact that the Lightning have scored a total of 12 goals across the four games, while the Wild have put up 15 goals. The Lightning’s goaltenders have saved 0.914 of shots on average, whereas the Wild’s goaltenders have posted a slightly higher average save percentage of 0.925.

The most recent game between the two teams took place on January 24, 2023, where the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Minnesota Wild with a final score of 4-2. In this game, the Lightning were the favorites with a closing moneyline of -166 and a spread of -1.5, which they successfully covered. The game’s total score matched the closing over-under of 6.5, resulting in an under outcome. Key individual performances included Corey Perry’s two goals for the Lightning, one of which was a power-play goal, and Joel Eriksson Ek’s short-handed goal for the Wild. Tampa Bay’s goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy had a strong showing with a save percentage of 0.943, saving 33 out of 35 shots, while the Wild’s Marc-Andre Fleury ended the game with a save percentage of 0.921. Tampa Bay capitalized on their power-play opportunities, scoring two goals, and the game also featured strong penalty killing from both teams, with the Wild scoring a short-handed goal.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild Predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning head into this game following a narrow defeat to the Winnipeg Jets, marking a 1 game losing streak that they’re eager to snap. Despite their recent struggles, the Lightning’s offensive firepower is led by the prolific Nikita Kucherov, who has amassed an impressive 63 points this season. Tampa Bay’s performance on special teams could be a deciding factor, boasting a formidable power play unit that converts at 29.8%. However, their defensive game has shown vulnerability, conceding an average of 3.46 goals per game.

Minnesota Wild, on the other hand, are also looking to rebound after a loss to the Calgary Flames extended their losing streak to three games. The Wild have been hit hard by injuries, with key players like Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello sidelined, putting additional pressure on players like Joel Eriksson Ek to step up. The Wild’s power play has been less effective than Tampa’s, with an 18.2% success rate, and their penalty kill has struggled, operating at only 72.8%. These special teams’ statistics could be critical in a game that is likely to be tightly contested.

This game features a clash of goaltending styles, with Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy and Minnesota’s Marc-Andre Fleury both looking to assert their dominance between the pipes. The Lightning will need to capitalize on their power play opportunities against the Wild’s faltering penalty kill to secure a win. Conversely, the Wild must find a way to generate offense despite their injury woes and will rely on their home-ice advantage, where they have a better record than on the road. As both teams vie for a much-needed victory, it’s set to be an enthralling encounter filled with strategic plays and individual brilliance.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild Pick

The Tampa Bay Lightning, despite their recent loss and a modest 18-16-5 record, are poised for a rebound against the Minnesota Wild. The Lightning’s power play efficiency of 29.8% is significantly higher than the Wild’s 18.2%, giving them a distinct advantage in special teams play. Additionally, the Wild’s penalty kill has been struggling at a mere 72.8% efficiency, which could prove costly against Tampa Bay’s potent power play. With the Wild also dealing with a slew of injuries to key players like Kaprizov and Zuccarello, their offensive depth is compromised, further tipping the scales in favor of the Lightning. Considering these factors, along with Nikita Kucherov’s exceptional scoring prowess leading the Lightning’s offense, a moneyline bet on Tampa Bay is a calculated choice.

Historically, the home team has had the advantage in recent matchups, but the current circumstances surrounding the Wild’s roster could disrupt this trend. The Lightning have the offensive weapons and special teams capability to overcome the Wild’s home-ice advantage, especially with Minnesota’s top scorers out of the lineup. While the Wild’s goaltending with Marc-Andre Fleury is respectable, the Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy is more than capable of matching his performance, and the superior offensive support from Tampa Bay could be the difference-maker. Given these considerations, the Lightning’s moneyline bet offers a compelling opportunity for this game.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -128 (FanDuel)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild Player Prop Picks

Here are the players who have hit over their current prop line in at least 7 of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
Victor Hedman Assists 0.5 7/10 -160 +124 1.1 1.08
Victor Hedman Points 0.5 7/10 -210 +160 1.1 1.07
Anthony Cirelli Shots On Goal 1.5 7/10 -145 +114 2.0 2.01
Steven Stamkos Points 0.5 7/10 -238 +180 1.2 1.15
Brayden Point Points 0.5 7/10 -230 +175 0.9 0.84

Minnesota Wild

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
Joel Eriksson Ek Shots On Goal 3.5 7/10 -135 +105 4.6 4.55
Brock Faber Shots On Goal 1.5 7/10 -145 +114 1.9 1.78
Marcus Johansson Shots On Goal 1.5 7/10 -180 +140 2.2 2.23
Marcus Johansson Points 0.5 7/10 -105 -125 0.9 0.88