Padres vs Giants Odds, Prediction, Best Bet: Trust Padres’ Offense

San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto (22) looks on after a walk during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park.
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants visit the Padres tonight as both teams are heading in opposite directions. After surprisingly winning the most games in MLB in 2021, the Giants have turned into a pumpkin this year. They’re a long shot at making the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Padres pushed some chips into the middle of the table, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the MLB trade deadline, among other roster-bolstering maneuvers. As a result, this game’s betting info reflects where these teams are headed in 2022. So, what stands out in the offered wagering options? Check out the game preview below for what we expect and our favorite bet on this NL West battle.

Padres vs Giants Odds

Giants (A.Wood)
+1.5 (-135)+158O 7.5 (-110)
@ Padres (B.Snell)-1.5 (+115)-190U 7.5 (-110)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on Aug. 8.

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Revamped Padres = Tough Assignment

Wood vs Padres: According to FanGraphs, Alex Wood’s 4.42 ERA in 21 starts totaling 106.0 innings has been rather unlucky. For instance, he’s also had a 3.72 xERA, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.44 SIERA. So, Wood is probably more talented than his 4.42 ERA suggests.

Nevertheless, he hasn’t been as sharp this year as last, namely, taking a step back in swinging-strike percentage (12.5 SwStr% in 2021 to 10.3% this year). As a result, his strikeout rate has slipped from 26.0% last season to 23.5% this year. So, Wood has less room for error. In addition, Wood is asking more from his defense with more balls in play. Sadly, San Francisco’s defense has been abysmal, ranking dead last in fielding score at FanGraphs. So, perhaps, San Francisco’s defensive woes can explain most of the gap between Wood’s ERA and ERA estimators.

Padres Offense: The retooled Padres’ offense is terrifying for southpaws. Among tonight’s likely starters, Jake Cronenworth’s 99 wRC+ since 2019 has been the lowest. At least six probable starters have had a 105 wRC+ or better against lefties since 2019. Thus, there aren’t any easy outs in San Diego’s lineup.

Further, Manny Machado and Juan Soto are a pair of challenges in prominent lineup spots. Since 2019, the latter has had a 131 wRC+, and the former has had a 145 wRC+ against lefties. Finally, San Diego’s offense will benefit from facing a horrible bullpen after Wood departs the contest. San Francisco’s bullpen’s 4.42 ERA is tied for the fourth-highest mark.

Which Version Of Snell Can We Expect?

Snell vs Giants: Blake Snell isn’t a flawless hurler. Frankly, Snell’s 11.8 BB% always provides pause since his below-average control can get him into trouble. Nevertheless, he’s pitched well lately and been great at home.

In his last six starts totaling 31.2 innings, Snell has had a 2.56 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 37.1 K%. He’s also allowed one run or less in five of those turns, coughing up five runs at Coors Field in the outlier.

Further, Snell has shined at home. Since last year, in 107.1 innings at PETCO Park, he’s had a 2.93 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 9.0 BB%, and 34.1 K%. Thus, Snell is more trustworthy in San Diego.

Giants Offense: The platoon-heavy Giants aren’t a cakewalk for lefties. If Evan Longoria returns from the Injured List tonight, San Francisco’s lineup should include at least five players with a 123 wRC+ or better against lefties since 2019.

Austin Slater (143 wRC+), Longo (137 wRC+), Yermin Mercedes (132), Wilmer Flores (128), and J.D. Davis (123) are all formidable foes. The rest of their lineup is unlikely to provide Snell hiccups, though.

Padres vs Giants Prediction

According to Baseball-Reference, the Giants are only 24-28 on the road and 23-32 against teams above .500. They are 21-18 against southpaws, but that’s not enough to ignore the road struggles and problems beating good teams.

Meanwhile, the Padres are 31-23 at home, 22-17 against lefties, and 41-23 against sub-.500 teams. The Padres have the advantage on the hill and at the dish. Therefore, they should win tonight. However, I prefer to back their offense instead of laying the sizable juice on their moneyline offering. Most of the sportsbooks have their team total at 4.5 runs. Thankfully, Caesars Sportsbook offers their team total (listed as home total runs) at only 4.0 runs. So, that’s where I like wagering on San Diego’s team total the best.

The Pick: Padres (Team Total Runs) Over 4 | -125 at Caesars Sportsbook

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