If there’s football on Sunday, we are here with an Underdog 10x play, and as usual – because we love life and hate rooting for “lower than’s” – we’re going higher, higher, higher, and higher again.
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Bucky Irving higher than 79.5 yards rushing, which is a crazy high number, but consider: The Bucs have to win this game, so giving the ball to their best running back makes a ton of sense.
Furthermore, the Panthers have given up nearly 500(!) more rushing yards than the Giants, who have given up the second-most rushing yards in the league in the league.
In short: The difference between the Panthers and the Giants is about the same as the Giants and the Steelers – and the Steelers have given up the 10th LEAST rushing yards this season. The Panthers are a generationally bad rushing defense.
And then there’s this: Irving already beat the Panthers for 152 yards earlier this season.
We don’t expect the Panthers to buck – ha-ha – these trends this week.
Next up, Brian Thomas Jr. to go higher than 6.5 receptions against the Titans. The Mac Jones to Brian Thomas Jr. connection is real and spectacular, especially of late.
In fact, in the duo’s last four games, Thomas Jr. hasn’t seen less than 10 targets, and after a four-catch performance against the Texans, he’s caught eight, 10, and nine balls in consecutive weeks (with the eight coming against these same Titans).
And while the Jags have nothing to play for, Jones and head coach Doug Pederson do. Thomas Jr. should get fed all day long.
From here, to Cleveland, where we’re going to probably take De’Von Achane to go higher than 99.5 rushing and receiving yards. “Probably” because if both the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday, the Dolphins’ thin playoff hopes are finished.
But if the Chargers lose to the Patriots (probably not) or if the Broncos lose to the Bengals (why not?) the Dolphins will still be alive and if so, Achane should be in line for at least 17 touches.
Why 17? Well, A) because the Dolphins need to win and he’s their best playmaker and B) in games where Achane has gotten 17 or more touches this year, he’s eclipsed the 99.5 marker five out of nine tries. (If the Dolphins are eliminated, take this off the board.)
Lastly, to Minnesota, where the Vikings host the Packers in their continuing quest for the number one seed in the NFC. As such, we like Justin Jefferson to go higher than 88.5 receiving yards. Why? Well, continuing the theme we’ve laid out so far today: Get the ball to your best players in the most important games.
Jefferson has been a model of consistency this year, and he’s also come on big time in the last month, hitting this yardage number in three of his last four games.
The star wideout has also seen the most (14) and second-most (13) targets of the year in the last two games. He should have plenty of opportunities to get higher than 88.5 yards.
NFL Week 17 Picks
Bucky Irving higher than 79.5 rushing yards
Brian Thomas Jr. higher than 6.5 receptions
De’Von Achane higher than 99.5 rushing + receiving yards (if the Dolphins are still alive)
Justin Jefferson higher than 88.5 receiving yards
10x at Underdog
As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 17!
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