Mountain West Tournament Odds: ‘Lopsided Liability’ On San Diego State

San Diego State Aztecs forward Chad Baker (left) dribbles the basketball with his right hand while defended by Colorado State Rams guard Trace Young (right) during a Mountain West conference basketball game
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Mountain West tournament odds for Friday’s semifinals might not mean as much – to people other than bettors – after the top four seeds held on in tight games Thursday at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. CBS Sports and ESPN bracketology experts project Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Wyoming as safely in the 68-team field.

Now all that’s left to do is to play for a championship – and cash some tickets.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on opening/current lines and action in the Friday Mountain West tournament betting market. Check back throughout the day for action updates.

Mountain West Tournament Odds and Betting Action

San Diego State vs. Colorado State (11:59 p.m. ET)

Colorado State Rams guard Baylor Hebb (right) dribbles the basketball with his right hand and heads up the court during a Mountain West Conference game against the San Diego State Aztecs
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET: San Diego State struggled almost the entire way in its quarterfinal game against Fresno State on Thursday night. But the Aztecs covered the spread with a free throw in the waning seconds, and apparently that was enough for bettors at TwinSpires Sportsbook to believe in the No. 3 — big time. Because after opening a scant 1-point favorite, SDSU is now a 2-point chalk.

And given that the 72% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the favorite, the Aztecs are now a big sweat for the TwinSpires risk room.

“We’ve got lopsided liability on SDSU,” said Zachary Lucas, TwinSpires’ director of retail sports. “We’ll be rooting hard for Colorado State.”

The total, which has ticked up a point from 124.5 to 125.5, is seeing much more even action than the spread, with 54% of all wagers on the Under and 56% of all dollars on the Over.

Previous Wyoming vs Boise State Odds Updates

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET: Like the other Mountain West semifinalists, the Aztecs and Rams barely escaped with victories in their quarterfinals matchups Thursday.

In the nightcap, No. 3 seed San Diego State (22-7 SU, 16-13 ATS) pulled away late for a 53-46 victory over sixth-seeded Fresno State, and in the process delivered a crushing blow to Bulldogs bettors. The Aztecs sank two free throws with four seconds left to cover as a six-point favorite — the first and only time all game that San Diego State had the number covered. Despite a 115.5 closing total, the game stayed well Under.

The Aztecs have won five in a row and are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games, the only blemish being a one-point loss at Boise State on Feb. 22. And with the lucky cover Thursday, they’re also on a 6-2 ATS run.

No. 2 seed Colorado State (25-4 SU, 14-14 ATS) outlasted Utah State 53-51 in a defensive slugfest Thursday, but came up short laying 4 points. The game stayed Under 136.5 by a whopping 32.5 points. The Rams are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS in their past five games.

Colorado State and San Diego State split their two regular-season meetings, but the Aztecs covered in both. San Diego State crushed the Rams 79-49 on Jan. 8 as a 2.5-point home favorite, then covered as a 4-point pup in a 58-57 loss at Colorado State on Feb. 4. The Aztecs are now 7-2 ATS in the last nine series meetings.

Both head-to-head battles this season stayed Under the total. The Under is also 5-1 in Colorado State’s last six, although Thursday’s low-scoring affair against Fresno State ended a 4-0 Over stretch for the Aztecs. Both teams have been Under machines pretty much all season, with San Diego State at 17-12 Under and the Rams 18-10 Under.

Friday’s semifinal showdown was initially posted as a pick ’em overnight at DraftKings, with the total super low (as expected) at 123.5. Early this morning, Colorado State moved to -1, then the line flipped to San Diego State -1.5 midmorning. The Aztecs are now -1 (-120). Check back later today for betting splits on this MWC semifinal.

Wyoming vs. Boise State (9:30 p.m. ET)

Wyoming Cowboys forward Jeremiah Oden (25) dribbles he ball with his left hand as a referee whistles a foul on Boise State Broncos guard Max Rice (background) during a Mountain West conference game
Image Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 8:35 P.M. ET: Less than an hour before tipoff in Las Vegas, top-seeded Boise State is holding firm as a 3-point favorite over Wyoming. Although the line hasn’t moved, the Broncos are the favored side at TwinSpires Sportsbook, as they’re catching 59% of the tickets and 56% of the money.

The total opened at 129 and has ticked down to 128.5, as 60% of the bets are on the Over but 585 of the cash sides with the Under. “We’ve saw some sharp action on Under 129,” said Zachary Lucas, TwinSpires’ director of retail sports.

Previous Wyoming vs Boise State Odds Updates

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET: Wyoming had the shakiest NCAA Tournament résumé of the Mountain West’s top four seeds, but the Cowboys likely punched their ticket to the Big Dance on Thursday by edging UNLV 59-56 as a 1.5-point favorite.

No. 4 seed Wyoming (25-7 SU, 17-12-2 ATS) trailed the Rebels 56-52 with 2:11 remaining but scored the final seven points to pull out the win and cover. The game stayed Under the total by 20 points. The victory ended a mini-slum for Cowboys, who had closed the regular season 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS.

No. 1 seed Boise State (25-7 SU, 16-15 ATS) held on to beat Nevada 71-69 on Thursday but failed to cover the -6.5 spread. The game barely slipped past the 136.5 closing total – the only Mountain West tourney quarterfinal contest to go Over. The Broncos have won eight of their past 10, with both losses coming to Colorado State. However, Boise State is just 4-6 ATS during this stretch.

Boise State and Wyoming successfully defended their home courts in two regular-season meetings, but the Cowboys covered in both. Boise State won 65-62 on Jan. 25, but Wyoming covered +5. The Cowboys answered with a 72-65 victory Feb. 3 as 1-point favorites, ending the Broncos’ eight-game winning streak in the rivalry.

The Under is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings and 6-3 in Wyoming’s last nine overall. However, Boise is on a 10-2 Over run (4-0 last four)

Boise State, which is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, opened as a 2.5-point chalk on DraftKings’ Mountain West tournament odds board. Within about an hour late Thursday night, the Broncos moved to -3, then returned to -2.5, where the number sits this afternoon. Wyoming is nabbing 75% of early bets and 70% of early dollars on the spread.

The total opened at 129, fell to 127.5 by midmorning today, then returned to 129 in the past 30 minutes. Current splits weren’t available.