Friday was a mixed bag for the Props.com Best Bets series, but our selections remain solidly profitable at 9-5-1 overall.
The NBA Props picks are sitting pretty at a perfect 4-0 after Giannis Antetokounmpo racked up plenty of points, rebounds, and assists in Friday’s win over the Bulls. However, the Bostonian vs. The Book crew lost its first pick of the season, which puts them at 2-1-1. They’ll try to bounce back Monday, along with the BetPrep folks, who currently stands at 1-3 with their Prop of the Day selections.
As a reminder: We’re just having a little fun here with this Best Bet series, and hope you are, too. Which is to say: Don’t beat us over the head when the rough days start rolling in. Because they will. And probably more often than not!
With that said, on to our Monday Best Bets.
Bostonian vs. The Book: 2-1-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 1-3
NBA Props: 4-0
NHL Props: 2-1
College Basketball Total: Gonzaga Vs. San Francisco
The Bostonian vs. The Book suffered its first loss of the year Friday when the Rangers and Devils failed to go Over 6 goals. Co-hosts Matt Perrault and Dave Sharapan look to get back on track with a college basketball total for their Monday best bet, rolling with Gonzaga-San Francisco Under 154 combined points.
“The Zags have been an Under machine in the last 10 games,” said Perrault, alluding to the fact that Gonzaga has been 7-3 to the Under in its last 10 games.
“I’m betting this,” Sharapan agreed, “I like Under as well. Gonzaga is playing this game to get to tomorrow [the conference final]. Will they try to run up the score? Probably not.”
To Sharapan’s point, with a victory over San Francisco, Gonzaga will play in the West Coast Conference championship game Tuesday night.
Following that train of thought, the Zags could take their foot off the gas pedal if they open a big lead against San Francisco. And oddsmakers certainly think that will happen, as Gonzaga is a huge favorite in Monday’s semifinal.
If you are looking to bet this total, you can find the best number (Under 154) and price (-110) at DraftKings.
Perrault listed two other bets he likes during Monday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, including a college basketball conference tournament play. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
NBA Prop: Dallas Mavericks SG Reggie Bullock
The BetPrep crew misfired with Friday’s NBA play on Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, who came up short on his 3-pointer prop. But they’re coming back strong Monday with a bit of an obscure best bet, as they are looking for Dallas Mavericks shooting guard Reggie Bullock to fall short of his points prop against the Jazz.
Here’s BetPrep’s rationale:
- Bullock has scored more than 12 points in just four of his last 29 games against a team with a winning record
- He’s tallied 13 points or more in eight of his last 29 home games (averaging 9.6 points per game over that span)
- Bullock scored nine points on 3-for-8 shooting in his last game against Utah
- Utah is the league’s best team in defending 3-pointers to the shooting guard position
Looking for more action? The BetPrep folks also believe that Rudy Gobert’s rebound prop of 12.5 against Dallas is too low. However, their best bet of the night is Bullock Under 12.5 points. You can find that one at Caesars Sportsbook.
NBA Prop: Philadelphia 76ers G James Harden
Harden and Joel Embiid have fit together like lamb and tuna fish during their brief tenure with the 76ers. Or spaghetti and meatballs, if you’re more comfortable with that analogy.
Harden got the night off in the 76ers’ game at Miami on Friday, and the team suffered its first defeat since he joined the rotation (Philly also scored a season-low 82 points). He’ll be back in the lineup on Monday for an important showdown vs. the Bulls.
However, Harden has been far less aggressive than usual since joining the 76ers. He’s averaged just 12.3 field-goal attempts through his first four games, and he’s posted a usage rate of just 24.5 percent. He’s made up for it with some lethal shooting efficiency — the former NBA MVP has made 59.2 percent of his field goals, 50.0 percent of his 3-pointers, and 90.2 percent of his free throws.
That’s why Harden put up 29, 26, and 25 points in his three contests with Philly. It’s also why he’s a prime candidate for some regression moving forward. I’ll gladly take the Under on Harden’s scoring prop in this matchup.
You can snag the best price on this best bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.