Let’s talk about LaMelo Ball props tonight as the Hornets take on the Grizzlies, because these projections feel like they’re not accounting for what we’ve witnessed in October.
LaMelo Ball is only 24 years old, yet it feels like he’s been playing in the league forever. Injuries have unfortunately affected him throughout most of his young career – he’s only played more than 51 games once across five NBA seasons. That durability concern is legitimate and can’t be ignored.
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LAMELO BALL PROPS TONIGHT – OCTOBER 15
Ball is coming off a monster campaign last year. Despite appearing in just 47 games, Ball averaged 25.2 points per game, almost 7.5 assists, and nearly 5 rebounds per contest. When he’s actually on the court, he’s one of the game’s most dynamic playmakers, capable of taking over games through scoring and facilitating.
Ball has suited up for three preseason contests so far in October, and the production has been consistently strong. He logged a very efficient 23 minutes against Dallas, shooting 8-of-13 from the floor while draining 4-of-8 three-point attempts.
That outing resulted in 20 points and 6 assists with quality efficiency. He also performed really well in his other two games against Oklahoma City earlier this month.
Currently on Underdog, you can get LaMelo Ball at 16.5 points, with his combined PRA projection sitting at 25.5.
Here’s my thinking – those projections feel conservative given what he’s shown throughout the preseason. Ball’s averaging 25+ points per game when healthy during the regular season, and his preseason performance suggests he’s in midseason form already.
I’m leaning toward more than 16.5 points. When a dynamic scorer is locked in and has demonstrated consistent production across multiple preseason contests, betting under feels like you’re banking on reduced minutes rather than poor performance.
The 25.5 PRA projection also feels achievable given his all-around contributions. Ball stuffs the stat sheet naturally through scoring, rebounding, and facilitating, making that combined number very manageable even in limited preseason run.
LaMelo Ball Career Stats
- 2020-21: 51 GP | 28.8 MIN | 15.7 PTS | 6.1 REB | 5.9 AST | 43.6 FG% | 35.2 3P%
- 2021-22: 75 GP | 32.3 MIN | 20.1 PTS | 6.7 REB | 7.6 AST | 42.9 FG% | 38.9 3P%
- 2022-23: 36 GP | 35.2 MIN | 23.3 PTS | 6.4 REB | 8.4 AST | 41.1 FG% | 37.6 3P%
- 2023-24: 22 GP | 32.3 MIN | 23.9 PTS | 5.1 REB | 8.0 AST | 43.3 FG% | 35.5 3P%
- 2024-25: 47 GP | 32.0 MIN | 25.2 PTS | 4.9 REB | 7.4 AST | 40.5 FG% | 33.9 3P%
Career Totals: 231 GP | 31.9 MIN | 21.0 PTS | 6.0 REB | 7.4 AST | 42.1 FG% | 36.5 3P%
