First and 10: Top NFL Props For Week 9

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield reacts after throwing a pass in a game
Image Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Multiple veteran quarterbacks, plus one making his professional debut. Two exciting young wide receivers. A former Heisman Trophy-winning running back who was drafted a decade ago. A first-half prop, a team total points prop — even props involving a kicker and a linebacker.

If you like variety in your NFL props, then you’ve come to the right place. Let’s get on with the Week 9 edition of First and 10.

Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET Nov. 5.

Baker Mayfield Over/Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Cincinnati)

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers
Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Browns QB may be lugging around a bum shoulder, but it hasn’t stopped him from scampering past the line of scrimmage — albeit rarely. Mayfield has three or fewer rushes in five of the seven games he’s played (and he had four in another one), but he’s still beaten this prop six times with rushing totals of 31, 11, 10, 8, 8, and 7 yards.
The case for the Under: After missing Week 7 with his injured wing, Mayfield returned last Sunday and tied his season-low with one rush for a season-low 5 yards in a loss to the Steelers. Also, in two games vs. the Bengals last year, the former Oklahoma star put up rushing lines of 5 and minus-1 yards.

Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 29.5 Points Scored (vs. Denver)

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezikiel Elliott struts into the end zone on a touchdown run
Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: With Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback, the Cowboys are averaging 20 points (that would be last week’s 20-16 victory in Minnesota). With Dak Prescott under center, the Cowboys are averaging 34.2 points. Dallas’ point totals in the last four games Prescott started: 41, 36, 44, and 35. The first three of those games? All at home.
The case for the Under: One play — that’s all it takes for Prescott’s calf injury to resurface, send him wobbling to the sidelines, and tag in Rush. Even if Dak makes it to the finish line, he’ll have to overcome the second-best scoring defense in the NFL, as Denver is yielding just 17.1 points per game. Of course, that stat was accumulated with pass-rushing specialist Von Miller on the field (Miller was traded this week to the Rams). Also, half of the Broncos’ opponents have been the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, and Washington.

Justin Jefferson Over/Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (at Baltimore)

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson catches a pass for a first down as Detroit Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye defends
Image Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Vikings’ second-year wideout has been a dependable target for QB Kirk Cousins, hauling in at least six receptions and topping 70 receiving yards in five of seven games. That includes a four-game stretch where Jefferson averaged 101.5 receiving yards. Now he goes up against a Ravens secondary that ranks dead last in passing yards allowed (296.1 per game). (Yes, the Ravens. Dead last. In pass defense. We looked it up!)
The case for the Under: Jefferson is coming off a dud of a performance against Dallas in which he had just two catches on four targets for 21 yards (all season lows by a mile). Also, prior to the Cowboys game, Jefferson’s three least productive games this season were on the road (71, 65, and 80 yards). In fact, he’s averaging 96.6 receiving yards in 12 career home games, but 73.1 yards — virtually right on this prop number — in 11 road contests.

Mark Ingram Over/Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Atlanta)

New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram II makes a heart symbol with his hands during pregame introductions
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -115/Under -115) (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Some 48 hours after reacquiring the RB he drafted back in 2011, Saints coach Sean Payton handed Ingram the rock six times against Tampa Bay, and the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner produced 27 yards (4.5 per carry). And that was against the NFL’s top run defense. With a week of practice under his belt, Ingram figures to get even more touches — and have even more success — this week against a Falcons D that’s yielding 125 rushing ypg.
The case for the Under: Ingram obviously is playing second fiddle to first-string RB Alvin Kamara, and if the latter gets off to a hot start, Payton will ride him all day. Also, in 13 career games against Atlanta — including a bunch in which he was the lead horse — Ingram has averaged just 46.4 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush.

Hunter Renfrow Over/Under 5.5 Receptions (at N.Y. Giants)

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow runs after a making a catch against the Baltimore Ravens
Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -110/Under -125 (at PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: Only six teams are allowing more completions per game than the New York Giants’ average of 25.1. Now here comes Raiders QB Derek Carr’s security blanket, who is hauling in 5.4 receptions per game. Renfrow is coming off a season-high seven-catch effort against the Eagles and should get even more looks following WR Henry Ruggs’ release this week.
The case for the Under: Renfrow has failed to clear this number in three games this season, when he had 5, 5 and 3 receptions. Two of those low-catch efforts occurred on the road (Steelers and Broncos); in the Raiders’ other roadie (Chargers), he had 6 catches.

Patriots-Panthers First Half Moneyline (at Carolina)

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones drops back to pass and looks down the field for an open receiver
Image Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Patriots -170/Panthers +150 (at DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Patriots: Since a 10-10 first-half tie against Miami in Week 1, New England has held a halftime advantage in five of seven games. That includes leads against three quality teams: Buccaneers (home), Cowboys (home), Chargers (road).
The case for the Panthers: Four weeks ago, the Patriots went on the road and trailed 15-9 at the half against … the Texans! The same Texans team that trailed Carolina 7-6 at halftime at home in Week 3. In fact, the Panthers held a halftime lead in each of their first five games. The last three? Eh, not so much.

Dustin Hopkins Over/Under 2.5 Extra Points (at Philadelphia)

Los Angeles Chargers kicker Dustin Hopkins kicks a field goal during the second half against the New England Patriots
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -110/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: Since entering the NFL in 2015, Hopkins has made 94.3 percent of his PATs (182-for-193) and averaged a tick under two made PATs per game. All but three of those PAT attempts came with Washington, which released Hopkins last month. In his first game with the Chargers last Sunday, Hopkins went 3-for-3 on extra points.
The case for the Under: Little-known fact outside of Chargersville: The franchise has been cursed by kickers for the better part of two decades. To that point, Hopkins is the 11th kicker to slip on a Chargers jersey since 2017 (trust us, this team’s kicking woes go much further back than that). The guy who preceded Hopkins? His name was Tristan Vizcaino … who missed five PATs in six games this season. The curse is coming for you, Dustin!

Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions (vs. Green Bay)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes rolls out looking to throw the ball
Image Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over +115/Under -155 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Remember way, way back in, like, 2020 when Kansas City’s QB was being touted as the second coming of Manning, Brady, Marino, Elway, and Montana, all wrapped up in one package? Well, Dorothy, this isn’t 2020 anymore. Since a three-TD, no-INT performance in Week 1 against the Browns, Mahomes has thrown at least one interception in seven consecutive games. And that’s not even the most startling stat; this is: He has 10 INTs in his last seven games, after getting picked just 24 times in his first 47 contests.
The case for the Under: With Jordan Love making his NFL debut for the Packers (more on that in a second), just how much passing is Mahomes really going to be required to do? Moreover, unless you’re wearing a Jets jersey or your name is Ryan Leaf, you can’t possibly throw a pick in eight straight games. This has to end this week … right?

Jordan Love Over/Under 232.5 Passing Yards (at Kansas City)

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love warms up before a game against the Arizona Cardinals
Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: We searched long and hard but had no luck finding a sportsbook offering a prop on how many times a ’rona’d up Aaron Rodgers will try to sabotage his understudy from the comfort of his recliner back in Green Bay. So we settled on this prop. Look, it’s difficult to handicap a quarterback making his first regular-season start, but we know this much: Love couldn’t be facing a more ideal defense, as the Chiefs rank next-to-last in sacks (11) and are allowing nearly 270 passing yards per game. Hell, Jalen Hurts torched K.C. for 387 passing yards!
The case for the Under: Ideal defense? For sure. Ideal venue? Uh … no. Arrowhead Stadium has swallowed up plenty of All-Pro QBs over the decades, let alone QBs making their deer-in-headlights debut. Plus, you have to believe Packers coach Matt LaFleur’s game plan will be more conservative than a Fox News panel. 

T.J. Watt Over/Under 2.5 Solo Tackles (vs. Chicago)

Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt sacks Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield
Image Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The odds: Over -110/Under -120 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over:  Here are Watt’s solo-tackle totals in the six games he’s played: 3, 3, 3, 3, 6, 4. And in none of those games was the Steelers’ game-wrecking linebacker facing a rookie quarterback (Justin Fields) who is clearly in over his head right now. Watt, however, did face a Geno Smith-led offense in Week 6. Let’s see if you can match Watt’s aforementioned tackle totals with that particular game …
The case for the Under: The Bears are going to run the ball in this one. A lot. Because they’re good at it (136.6 rushing yards per game). And because they can’t do anything else (ranking dead last in passing and total offense). So common sense would suggest that Chicago will spend Monday night doing their damndest to run away from Watt for 60 minutes. Problem is, common sense and Bears coach Matt Nagy kinda clash.

Week 8 Results

Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 235.5 passing yards (Under – 205 yards)
Detroit Lions -1.5 (alternate spread) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NO – Eagles win by 38)
Derrick Henry longest rush Over/Under 17.5 yards (Under – 9 yards)
Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 5.5 receptions (Under – 3 receptions)
Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 38.5 pass attempts (Under – 34 attempts)
49ers-Bears Over/Under 35.5 total points (Over – 55 points)
Mike Williams Over/Under 72.5 receiving yards (Under – 19 yards)
Tom Brady Over/Under 2.5 passing TDs (Over – 4 TDs)
Cowboys -2.5 (alternate spread) vs Vikings (YES Cowboys win by 4)
Travis Kelce longest reception Over/Under 22.5 yards (Under – 14 yards)