Dubbs Anderson, former PGA Tour caddy and host of the Props Golf podcast, is back following a solid betting performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Reaching for those “plus-money peaches,” Anderson offers his top BMW Championship picks, best bets, props, and sleepers this time around. The event starts the morning of Thursday, August 18 — so read up and get those picks in.
In addition to this betting preview, Anderson will release an episode late Friday night in which he will offer his favorite wagering opportunities heading into the weekend, so be sure to subscribe to Props Golf on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
With that, here are Dubbs’ top BMW Championship picks and best bets across the golf betting markets.
Odds updated as of 10 a.m. ET on August 16.
BMW Championship Picks
The BMW Championship will be played at the South Course at the Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware. Patrick Cantlay won this event in 2021 and has 29-1 odds to win this event again. Other recent winners of this tournament include Jon Rahm (2020), Justin Thomas (2019), and Keegan Bradley (2018).
As Dubbs noted on the podcast, the Wilmington Country Club is a longer course with generous fairways, thick rough, and large greens. The players will need to focus on good iron play above all else this weekend. With that in mind, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained on approach, and strokes gained off the tee are the most important metrics to monitor heading into this event.
The following are abbreviated, edited excerpts of Anderson’s analysis from his latest episode of Props Golf, which he hosts twice weekly. For full analysis, you can view the full episode at the bottom of this article.
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Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (+2900)
Best odds available: +2900 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: The BMW Championship is the event that put Patrick Cantlay on the map last year. Granted, it was played at a different course, but the defending championship looks to capture back-to-back wins this weekend. Let’s take a look at some of his stats:
- 21st in strokes gained off the tee
- 55th in strokes gained on approach
- 26th in strokes gained around the green
With ten top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season, Cantlay looks to be in a great spot to take home a win.
Colin Morikawa Outright Winner (+3300)
Best odds available: +3300 at BetRivers Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Morikawa is a perfect example of a sharpshooter who capitalizes on courses that require balance between accuracy and distance. His stats are impressive, translating very well to this weekend’s course.
Morikawa is 30th in strokes gained off the tee and 3rd in stroked gained on approach. He has eight top 10 finishes this season and on a ball strikers course, you cannot count out open of the best iron players in the world.
Sebb Straka Top 40 Finish (-115)
Best odds available: -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Driving the ball is always easier when you are built like an absolute unit. Enter Sebb Straka. The guy can play and even has a win under his belt at the Honda Classic earlier on the 2022 PGA Tour.
In a 70-man field with no cut, count on Straka to get the job done. It’s not a “plus-money peach”, but Dubbs’ still sees value in Straka on the Top 40 market.
More BMW Championship Picks
Anderson offers additional BMW Championship picks and other wagering-related strategies in the latest episode of Props Golf, including:
- A 100-1 longshot winner
- Three sleepers for outright winner bets
- Head-to-head matchup picks
- BMW Championship props (playoff, hole-in-one, etc)
- Best Bets for a Top 20/40 Finish
- Fade plays
Watch/listen to the full episode on YouTube or simply press play on the video below. You can also listen to Props Golf on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Subscribe so you don’t miss when Dubbs drops his live BMW Championship picks early on Saturday.
Looking for more information on PGA Tour betting? Take a look at our complete Golf Betting Guide to get up to speed. You can also check out our PGA Tour Prop Betting Guide to dive deeper into these golf wagering styles.