We’re locked in to finding your best Monday Night Football picks every week of the NFL season.
Props.com analyst Justin Bales will break down two picks from the top daily fantasy sites for max value every time Monday Night Football rolls around.
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Best MNF Player Picks: Week 5
Justin Bales breaks down his best Monday Night Football player picks below. Remember that projections can change quickly on some of these DFS pick’em sites, so there’s a chance not all of these numbers are available.
Kareem Hunt More Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
Hunt looked terrible in Cleveland last season, averaging only 3.0 yards per carry. He looked slow to the hole, but he did record over 70% of his yards after contact. He recorded only two breakaway runs in 2023, totaling 32 yards on those runs.
Hunt debuted for the Kansas City Chiefs last week and looked rejuvenated. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry, posting 38 yards after contact on 14 carries. He didn’t record any breakaway runs, which is somewhat concerning, although it also showed how consistent his runs were.
Hunt gets an interesting matchup against the New Orleans Saints this week. They only allow 83.8 rushing yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Saints allow 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
New Orleans benefited from early blowouts against the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys, which limited the amount of rushing yards they allowed. Saquon Barkley was the only running back to see a reasonable workload, and he posted 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries.
I’m not expecting a massive workload for Hunt, but he could see a similar workload as last week. I do have concerns that he only received that workload because Carson Steele fumbled early last game, and we’ll see more touches for Steele this week.
Regardless, we’re getting an extremely low total, and Hunt may not even need double-digit carries to beat this number.
Where to Play: Kareem Hunt More Than 36.5 rushing yards | PrizePicks
UPDATE: The projection has moved up to 49.5 since time of publish.
Derek Carr Higher Than 211.5 Passing Yards
Carr’s enjoying a strong season for the New Orleans Saints, although he’s cooled down a bit from his ridiculous start. He’s thrown for 824 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on only 100 pass attempts. He has been a bit unlucky on the turnovers, as he only has 3 turnover-worthy plays on the season.
Carr gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I’m bullish on this matchup for a few reasons. The Chiefs are allowing the 10th-most passing yards (235.0) per game to quarterbacks this season. They’re allowing an average 7.1 yards per attempt in 2024.
Kansas City currently ranks fourth in the NFL in blitz rate (33.6%). They also rank fifth in pressure rate (30.3%) this season.
Carr is averaging a ridiculous 9.0 yards per attempt against the blitz in 2024. This is 1.2 yards per attempt higher than if he isn’t blitzed. He’s also averaging a healthy 7.8 yards per attempt when pressured this season. Both of these averages rank in the top 10 of NFL quarterbacks this season.
Finally, the Chiefs are currently -5.5 point favorites. This could lead to Carr throwing more than he’s been throughout the season, specifically if Kansas City finds an early lead. New Orleans has solid weapons across their offense, and they’re going to be able to attack specific matchups in this game.
Where to Bet: Derek Carr Higher Than 211.5 passing yards | Underdog
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