If you’re looking for the best Aaron Rodgers prediction Sunday with props this week, you’re in the right place. We have Aaron Rogers best bets today for Sunday Night Football on tap. The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer leads the Pittsburgh Steelers into primetime on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers. But here’s the reality: Rodgers is playing game-manager ball in a run-first Arthur Smith offense. The Steelers are 5-3 and riding their defense—not Rodgers’ arm. Against the Chargers’ above average pass defense in primetime at SoFi Stadium, expectations need to be tempered. Here’s the complete Aaron Rodgers props today breakdown with Rodgers fantasy points targets for Sunday Night Football.
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Aaron Rodgers Prediction Today – Props vs Chargers
Aaron Rodgers is operating in what most perceive as a low-volume, short-area passing attack against a Chargers defense that ranks 3rd in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.4) and 8th in pass yards per game (194.0).
Through eight games with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Rodgers has been solid but uninspiring from a fantasy perspective. He’s completing 68.7% of his passes for 1,692 yards and 17 touchdowns (tied-4th in NFL) with just 5 interceptions. His 103.1 passer rating is very good. His 16.2 fantasy points per game average? Not so much.
The issue isn’t efficiency—it’s VOLUME and CEILING. Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. He ranks 25th in yards per attempt (7.0). The Steelers run a conservative, ball-control offense built around their elite defense and running game, NOT Rodgers’ arm.
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Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Points: DFS Projections vs Falcons
For DFS players targeting Aaron Rodgers fantasy points (PPR DraftKings scoring), here’s the breakdown:
- Conservative Estimate (20 comp, 30 att, 185 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 rush yards): 10-12 fantasy points
- Expected Estimate (22 comp, 33 att, 220 pass yards, 1.5 TDs, 0 INT, 8 rush yards): 14-16 fantasy points
- Ceiling Estimate (25 comp, 37 att, 280 pass yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 12 rush yards): 20-24 fantasy points
- Rodgers has finished as a QB1 just TWICE all season—Week 1 (25.7 fantasy points vs Jets) and Week 7 (22.6 points vs Bengals). Every other week, he’s been QB2 or worse.
Best Aaron Rodgers Props Today: Sunday, November 9th – Week 10
The Chargers have shut down opposing passing attacks all season. They’ve allowed 250+ passing yards in just ONE game all year. Since Week 5, they rank 6th-fewest in passing yards allowed per game. Against a Steelers offense that ranks 21st in passing yards per game (211.5), this is a bad matchup for Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers Best Bet: Higher Than 219.5 Passing Yards
I bet you didn’t see this one coming. The Chargers have a really solid pass defense, which isn’t fantastic. However, they are small favorites.
Most Arthur Smith offenses aren’t air raids, and Rodgers ranks just 19th in pass attempts this season. However, he had two outlier September games in back-to-back weeks where he threw the ball 23 and 22 times, respectively.
Rodgers has thrown he ball 30+ times in six of eight games this season. They’re surprisingly very balanced in neutral-score situations, ranking 14th in passing plays during those scenarios (via Fantasy Points).
You can still manage a game and put the ball in the air, as long as the throws are safe. He’ll make this a competitive wager on SNF.
It might be tough sledding, but I think he will be chucking more than the public perception.
Where to play: | Underdog
Aaron Rodgers Live Odds
You can use our NFL Props Live Odds Comparison Tool to find the best and most accurate Aaron Rodgers passing lines and props for Sunday!
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Good luck, and enjoy Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football vs Los Angeles.
